Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Moura Monteiro: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Monteiro's superior recent clay form, dominant H2H record, and serve/return structural edge make him the clear favorite.
- Monteiro has won both previous H2H meetings on clay (2024, 2025), including a 1-6 6-2 6-3 comeback in July 2025.
- Monteiro's last-15 clay record is 11-4 (73.3%) with 54.8% games won; Gaubas is 4-7 (36.4%) with 46.4% games won on clay in the same window.
- Monteiro holds a significant first-serve edge: 73.5% points won vs. Gaubas' 65.0% on clay in last 15.
- Monteiro's break-point conversion rate on clay (44.2%) far exceeds Gaubas' (32.1%) in the recent window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive recent form and H2H history suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Gaubas' last 5 clay matches averaged 20.4 games; Monteiro's averaged 21.2 games, with several close sets.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 63-64% on clay, suggesting competitive games.
- H2H matches had 24 and 21 games, indicating potential for a tight contest.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores show a mix of tight and one-sided sets, but the average leans slightly over 9.5.
- Gaubas' last 5 first sets on clay: 6-2, 6-1, 1-6, 6-7, 4-6 (average 9.8 games).
- Monteiro's last 5 first sets on clay: 6-3, 7-5, 6-1, 6-2, 6-7 (average 9.4 games).
- Both players have first-serve points won above 65%, making breaks less frequent early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked clay opponents supports a -3.5 game handicap.
- Monteiro's average games won per match on clay: 13.3; Gaubas' average games lost: 12.3 in last 15.
- In H2H, Monteiro covered -3.5 games in both meetings (won by 5 and 4 games).
- Monteiro's break-point conversion edge suggests he can build a comfortable lead.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThiago Moura Monteiro -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Monteiro's strong serving and Gaubas' recent slow starts on clay point to Monteiro taking the opening set.
- Monteiro has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches; Gaubas lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Monteiro's first-serve points won on clay (73.5%) gives him a strong start advantage.
- Gaubas' first-set win conversion career is 85%, but his recent clay first-serve points won is only 65%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.50
The read
Monteiro's straight-set trend and Gaubas' struggles to win sets on clay make a 2-0 victory the most likely scoreline.
- Monteiro has won 8 of his last 11 clay matches in straight sets.
- Gaubas has lost 6 of his last 11 clay matches in straight sets.
- Monteiro's first-serve dominance (73.5% points won) often leads to quick sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostThiago Moura Monteiro 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's ace count alone often pushes the total over 7.5, and Gaubas contributes enough to clear the line.
- Monteiro averages 5.3 aces per match on clay in last 15; Gaubas averages 3.7.
- Combined average aces per match: 9.0, with Monteiro's serve being a key weapon.
- H2H stats show Monteiro with 9 aces in 2 matches, Gaubas with 2.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been disciplined on serve recently, making under 3.5 double faults likely.
- Both players average 1.9 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average is 3.8, but recent matches show consistency: Gaubas had 1 DF in last match, Monteiro 0.
- H2H: Gaubas 4 DFs in 2 matches, Monteiro 1 DF in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Vilius Gaubas #128Lithuania2Thiago Moura Monteiro #303Brazil0

Player Profiles

Vilius Gaubas

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Thiago Moura Monteiro 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vilius Gaubas @ 1.60

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Stat Battle