South KoreaWTA SeoulFinished

Predictions graded

Eunhye Lee #371South Korea0Yexin Ma #181China2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 02:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYexin Ma · 190 places

Eunhye Lee

South Korea

Reached a career-high No. 299 on 6 October 2025. Available career records are concentrated on hard courts; no current fitness issue was verified.

Current ranking: #371
Peak ranking: #299 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Yexin Ma is the rightful favorite over Eunhye Lee on ranking, fresher workload, and a superior second-serve and double-fault profile, but the 1.45 price overstates her edge given a sub-50% Hard games-won rate.

The value lies in totals and props: Over 5.5 double faults, Over 21.5 games, Over 2.5 sets, and Tiebreak Yes all align with both players' recent three-set patterns.

Context

Lee, 371st, has played almost all of her career on hard courts, with a 203-? hard-court win record and a 61% career win rate. She is the home player in Seoul.
Lee's 9-6 record across her last 15 hard-court matches is the stronger recent win-loss mark in this matchup, but her 5.8 double faults per match in that same window is a clear serve risk. Ma's 2.5 double faults per match over her last 15 gives her a lower-error serving baseline, so Lee's ability to limit free points will shape how competitive her service games are.
- Lee's last-15 hard-court record is 9-6 (60%), with 21 of 37 sets won.
- Lee is averaging 5.8 double faults per match across those 15 matches (87 total).
- Ma is averaging 2.5 double faults per match across her last 15 matches (38 total).
- Lee's 65% first-serve-in rate is higher than Ma's 57.8% over the same window.
Ma, 174th, is a right-hander with a 54.4% career win rate and 244 hard-court wins. She is the higher-ranked player in this qualifying match.
Lee lands 65% of first serves compared to Ma's 57.8%, but Ma's 51.7% second-serve points won is notably better than Lee's 44%. If Lee's first-serve percentage dips, her second serve becomes more attackable, while Ma has shown she can hold up in longer service games. That difference could decide how often each player is broken.
- Ma wins 51.7% of second-serve points over her last 15 matches (194 of 375).
- Lee wins 44% of second-serve points over her last 15 matches (157 of 357).
- Lee's first-serve-in rate is 65% versus Ma's 57.8% in the same window.
- Ma's first-serve points won (58.9%) is slightly higher than Lee's (58.5%).
Ma is ranked 174th and has spent most of her career on hard courts, with 244 hard-court wins. Lee is ranked 371st and also plays primarily on hard courts.
Ma's recent 8-7 record includes wins over Birrell (No. 56) and Ito (No. 372), showing she can handle higher-ranked opposition. Lee's 9-6 record is built largely on wins against players ranked 400 or lower, with her best recent win coming against Mai Hontama (No. 170). The quality of Ma's recent opposition suggests her form is more tested heading into this qualifying match.
- Ma beat Kimberly Birrell (No. 56) 7-6(2) 6-4 on 2026-07-28.
- Ma beat Aoi Ito (No. 372) 7-6(3) 2-6 6-0 on 2026-07-26.
- Lee's recent wins include opponents ranked 170, 431, 489, 490, 563, 579, 785, and 891.
- Lee's highest-ranked recent win was over Mai Hontama (No. 170) on 2026-09-19.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yexin Ma

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Ma's ranking and serve profile edge are real but not large enough to justify the short price, so the model sees no positive value on the favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Ma's higher ranking, stronger recent opposition quality, and clearly better second-serve/DF profile on Hard give her the structural edge, while Lee's high double-fault rate and weak break-point save rate (46.6%) are exploitable in a Bo3 qualifier.
- Yexin Ma ranked 174 vs Eunhye Lee 371; Ma's last-15 record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Lee 9-6 (60%) but Ma faced stronger opposition (Birrell #56, McNally #66, Burel #301)
- Ma's last-15 Hard serve profile: 2.8 aces/match, 2.7 DF/match, 59.4% first-serve points won, 51.3% second-serve points won vs Lee's 58.5% / 44.0%
- Lee's last-15 Hard: 5.8 double faults per match and only 46.6% break points saved — vulnerable on serve under pressure
- Both played 2026-09-19 (Lee 3 sets vs Hontama, Ma straight sets vs Zhao); Ma carries less load into this Q3 match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYexin MaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show near-even games-won rates and a recent pattern of long three-set matches, making an extended total games count the most likely outcome in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Lee's last-15 average match duration is 112.5 minutes with 53.8% games won; Ma's is 102.1 minutes with 50.8% games won
- Lee's last 5 matches include three three-setters (6-0 5-7 6-3, 6-7 6-3 6-4, 7-6 3-6 6-1)
- Ma's last 5 include a 7-6(10) three-setter vs Sidorova and a 5-7 6-4 6-4 loss to Kokkinis
- Both players' last-15 games-won rates sit near 50-54%, indicating competitive, extended sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Near-even games-won rates and recent opening-set patterns for both players point to a first set that extends past 9.5 games.
- Lee's last 5 opening sets: 6-0, 6-7, 7-6, 2-6, 4-6 — several extended or lopsided
- Ma's last 5 opening sets: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 — mixed but often competitive
- Both players' last-15 games-won rates near 50-54% suggest tight opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set patterns and near-even games-won rates suggest a competitive second set likely to exceed 9.5 games.
- Lee's last 5 second sets: 5-7, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 — mostly competitive
- Ma's last 5 second sets: 6-0, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 — mixed
- Both players' last-15 games-won rates near 50-54%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's cleaner opening-round performance and superior second-serve numbers on Hard give her a modest edge to take the opening set, though Lee's strong first-set conversion history keeps this close.
- Ma won her 2026-09-19 opener 6-3 6-0 (straight sets) while Lee needed three sets (6-0 5-7 6-3) the same day
- Ma's last-15 Hard first-serve points won 59.4% vs Lee 58.5%; Ma's second-serve points won 51.3% vs Lee 44.0%
- Lee's career firstSetWinConversion is 88% but her last-15 break-point save rate is only 46.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYexin MaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent windows show frequent deciding sets and near-even set-win percentages, supporting a three-set match in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Lee's last 5 matches: 3 went to a deciding set (Hontama, Nishimura, Sidorova)
- Ma's last 5 matches: 3 went to a deciding set (Kokkinis, Sidorova, Wang)
- Lee's last-15 sets won 56.8% (21/37) and Ma's 54.3% (19/35) — both near-even set splits
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lee's very high double-fault rate (5.8/match) combined with Ma's 2.5/match makes an over 5.5 total double faults the most likely outcome.
- Lee's last-15 double faults per match: 5.8 (87/15 matches tracked)
- Ma's last-15 double faults per match: 2.5 (38/15 matches tracked)
- Combined recent rate of roughly 8.3 per match strongly supports an over line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's higher ace rate on Hard combined with Lee's modest contribution pushes the combined ace count above 3.5 in a Bo3 match.
- Ma's last-15 Hard aces per match: 2.8 (34/12 matches tracked)
- Lee's last-15 Hard aces per match: 1.7 (25/15 matches tracked)
- Combined recent Hard ace rate of roughly 4.5 per match supports an over line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent windows show frequent tiebreak sets and near-even games-won rates, making at least one tiebreak likely in this Bo3 match.
- Lee's last 5 matches include two tiebreak sets (6-7(4) vs Nishimura, 7-6(4) vs Sidorova)
- Ma's last 5 matches include two tiebreak sets (7-6(10) vs Sidorova, 7-6(2) vs Birrell)
- Both players' last-15 games-won rates near 50-54% indicate tight sets prone to tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Eunhye Lee

9W 6L

6-0 5-7 6-3#170Mai Hontama

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#530Kayo Nishimura

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#409Kristiana Sidorova

2-6 6-4 6-1#563Ayano Shimizu

4-6 6-4 6-2#785Jiangxue Han

6-1 6-2#431Chengyiyi Yuan

6-1 6-2#489Aunchisa Chanta

6-2 6-1#483Dana Guzman

6-2 6-3#356Angelina Voloshchuk

6-2 1-6 6-0#490Erika Sema

6-1 6-1—Riley Crowder

7-6(1) 6-3#258Fiona Crawley

0-6 6-4 6-3#579Dalayna Hewitt

6-4 6-4#891Celine Simunyu

7-5 6-4#687Jo-Yee Chan

Yexin Ma

8W 7L

6-3 6-0#763Carol Zhao

5-7 6-4 6-4#444Tahlia Kokkinis

6-4 4-6 7-6(10)#409Kristiana Sidorova

3-6 6-2 6-3#397Jiaqi Wang

6-3 6-2#453Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#301Clara Burel

6-2 6-1#238Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#512Clervie Ngounoue

6-2 6-3#66Caty McNally

7-6(2) 6-4#56Kimberly Birrell

7-6(3) 2-6 6-0#372Aoi Ito

6-3 3-6 6-1#605Hong Yi Cody Wong

6-3 6-2#483Dana Guzman

6-2 6-2#900Rachel Gailis

6-2 6-4—Theadora Rabman

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ELEunhye LeeLee

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Yexin MaMaYM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.0%+7.2pp57.8%

1st Serve Won58.5%—58.9%

2nd Serve Won44.0%+7.7pp51.7%

Aces / Match1.7+1.22.9

Double Faults / Match5.83.3 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.0%+4.2pp45.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.9%+1.6pp51.3%

Break Pts Saved46.6%+2.9pp49.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.1pp50.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

65.0%1st Serve In+7.2pp57.8%

58.5%1st Serve Won—58.9%

44.0%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp51.7%

1.7Aces / Match+1.22.9

5.8Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

50.0%Return Pts Won+4.2pp45.8%

Pressure · 1–1

52.9%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp51.3%

46.6%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp49.5%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.6%