Shintaro Mochizuki #117Japan00 – 2Jaime Faria #79Portugal2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Faria is the higher-ranked and far better-serving player, and his hard-court results this window are stronger than Mochizuki's.

• Faria is ranked No. 68, Mochizuki No. 125, and Faria is seeded fifth in Tokyo qualifying.
• Faria is 7-5 on hard courts in this window with 72.9% of first-serve points won and 8.7 aces per match.
• Mochizuki is 6-9 on hard, landing only 47.5% of first serves and winning 43.7% of second-serve points.
• Mochizuki lost his latest match 6-1 6-4 to Martin Damm in Chengdu.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Faria's second sets usually reach ten games while Mochizuki's have been slightly shorter, leaving this line close to even.

• Faria's second sets on hard average 10.0 games; Mochizuki's average 9.0.
• Two of Faria's 10 second sets on hard went to tiebreaks.
• Mochizuki's second sets average 4.43 games won to 4.57 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Faria starts matches well while the opening set is the weakest part of Mochizuki's recent record.

• Faria has won 6 of 10 first sets on hard in this window; Mochizuki has won 4 of 14.
• Faria wins 72.9% of first-serve points on hard courts.
• Mochizuki has lost 10 of his last 14 opening sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Faria's serving edge carries into the second set, though Mochizuki's second sets are his stronger split.

• Faria has won 6 of 10 second sets on hard in this window; Mochizuki has won 7 of 14.
• Faria wins 72.9% of first-serve points and 48.9% of second-serve points on hard.
• Faria lost his most recent second set 6-7 to Gaston.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Most of both players' recent hard-court matches were settled in two sets, and the ranking gap makes a straight-set Faria win the single most likely result.

• Faria averages 2.4 sets per hard-court best-of-three match; Mochizuki averages 2.36.
• Only 4 of Faria's 10 and 5 of Mochizuki's 14 such matches reached a third set.
• Six of Mochizuki's 14 matches ended 0-2.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Mochizuki's serve is broken often enough that sets are more likely to end 6-4 than 7-6.

• Only 8 of the 24 combined hard-court best-of-three matches in this window featured a tiebreak.
• Mochizuki loses 43.7% of second-serve points and has 5.1 double faults per match.
• Six of Mochizuki's 14 matches finished 0-2 with no tiebreak needed.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Faria's aces alone account for most of the line and a third set would likely push a combined count over it.

• Faria averages 8.7 aces per hard-court match in this window; Mochizuki averages 2.3.
• Faria served 104 aces across 12 hard-court matches.
• Mochizuki's first serve lands only 47.5% of the time, limiting his own ace count.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players double-fault frequently and their combined average sits just above the line.

• Faria averages 6.9 double faults per hard-court match in this window; Mochizuki averages 5.1.
• Faria served 83 double faults in 12 hard-court matches; Mochizuki 77 in 15.
• Faria averages 2.4 sets per hard-court best-of-three match.