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Predictions graded

Jaime Faria #79Portugal1Hugo Gaston #97France2

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 4-6Fri 25 Sept 2026, 12:16 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJaime Faria · 18 places

Jaime Faria

Portugal

Structured match data lists Faria at No. 79, right-handed, and 188 cm. No additional reliable profile details were established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Hugo Gaston

France

Gaston reached his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 58 in July 2022. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface; current ranking is taken from the structured match reference.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: #58 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Faria, the higher-ranked seed, faces Gaston for a quarterfinal place but spent two and a half hours and saved two match points in round one, while Gaston won his opener in straight sets.

Faria is still the likelier winner, yet his 1.45 price is one to pass. The prices with something behind them are Gaston with a 1.5-game start at 2.3, Gaston to win at 2.75, Gaston to take the first set at 2.4 and over 23.5 games at 2.3.

Context

Faria spent about two and a half hours and an extra set getting past Atmane, while Gaston finished his opener in straight sets, so the seventh seed carries the longer recent workload into the second round. The winner reaches the quarterfinals, which raises the value of any difference in freshness between the two. The caveat is that Faria has been winning more than losing on hard courts this season and he closed this match out himself, so the longer opener is a caution about workload rather than proof he is playing below his level.
- Faria lost the opening set 3-6 before taking the second-set tie-break 7-6(9).
- Two match points were saved before he closed the third set 6-4.
- The first-round match lasted roughly two and a half hours.
- Gaston's opening match, played the same day, was completed in straight sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Gaston's straight-sets opener ended a run of tour-level defeats since his Estoril semifinal, and it was his third win of the season over a top-100 opponent, which shows he can still convert chances at this tier. For a player ranked No. 97, that continuity is the point: it keeps him credible in a match where he is the lower-ranked man. The limitation is that Shimabukuro, at No. 93, is a peer rather than a top-50 test, so the result establishes that Gaston is competing at this level again rather than that he has moved above it.
- Gaston won 6-4 6-4 against No. 93 Sho Shimabukuro.
- The result was his third win of the season against a top-100 opponent.
- It was his first tour-level main-draw win since the Estoril semifinal.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Faria is the higher-ranked player at No. 68, but his hard-court wins in this window have mostly been tight; this result is the exception.
This August result shows Faria can close a set cleanly against a top-five opponent — he beat Shelton 6-4 6-4 with no decider. It is one match from mid-August and says nothing about how he will feel after a two-and-a-half-hour opener, so it is not a form surge. It does show a straight-sets win is a route he has taken against quality opposition, which is the scoreline his backers would want here.
- On 16 August 2026 Faria beat Ben Shelton, ranked No. 4, 6-4 6-4 on hard court.
- Faria won 12 games to Shelton's 8, with no tiebreak in either set.
- The win is one of six recent matches supplied for Faria and the only one against a top-five opponent.
Faria won his Davis Cup singles rubber in El Salvador and was on court in Hangzhou five days later, so his route into this tournament included a long flight and no training block at home between events. That matters for how his workload is read after an opener that lasted two and a half hours. The counterweight is that the Davis Cup match itself was a routine 6-2 6-2 win, so the emphasis is on travel and turnaround rather than on a draining tie.
- Faria won 6-2 6-2 in the second singles rubber of Portugal's Davis Cup tie in El Salvador .
- He played and won his Hangzhou first round, in three sets.
- He is Portugal's No. 2 at a career-high No. 68.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Faria is the higher-ranked player with the stronger serve, but his hard-court game share is only around even, so the margin is small.
- Faria is 7 wins and 4 losses in 11 hard-court matches tracked this season
- He has won 49.1% of hard-court points (927 of 1888) and 72.3% of first-serve points
- Gaston is 5 wins and 4 losses across 9 hard-court matches tracked
- Faria's round-one win took about two and a half hours and saved two match points
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJaime FariaEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gaston only has to stay within three games, and Faria's recent winning margins have been very small.
- Faria's hard-court games record is 145 won and 150 lost
- Faria's most recent two wins both finished 16-16 and 17-16 in games
- Gaston's most recent straight-sets win came 12-8 in games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Gaston +3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits above nine and a half games, helped by Faria's longer openers.
- Faria's opening sets average 10.6 games on hard
- Gaston's opening sets average 9.4 games
- 2 first-set tiebreaks for Faria in 9 matches, 1 for Gaston in 8
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Faria's recent wins have been tight, so Gaston staying within one game is more likely than losing by two or more.
- Faria's hard-court games record is 145-150
- Faria's last two Hangzhou-level wins over Atmane and Walton both went three sets
- Gaston has won 6 of 8 second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Gaston +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these samples have usually ended before 6-6, keeping the total under the line.
- Only 1 second-set tiebreak appeared in 17 combined matches
- Gaston's second sets average 9.5 games, Faria's 9.7
- Gaston won the second set 6-4 in his Hangzhou opener
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches ended in straight sets, which usually keeps total games below the line.
- Faria's hard-court matches average 23.9 games, Gaston's 22.3
- 63% of the combined hard-court best-of-three matches finished in straight sets
- Gaston has had a tiebreak in only 1 of his 8 matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set finishes are the clear majority for both players in this window.
- 6 of Faria's 9 hard-court best-of-three matches were straight sets
- 5 of Gaston's 8 were straight sets
- Gaston won his opening match 6-4 6-4
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The opening-set records are almost level, with a small lean to the higher-ranked player.
- Faria has won 5 of 9 opening sets on hard
- Gaston has won 5 of 8 opening sets on hard
- Faria has played 2 first-set tiebreaks in 9 matches, Gaston 1 in 8
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been near even for both players, with no clear separation.
- Faria has won 6 of 9 second sets on hard
- Gaston has won 6 of 8 second sets
- Only 1 tiebreak appeared across 17 second sets in these samples
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJaime FariaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been the exception rather than the rule for both players in this window.
- 5 of the 17 combined hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Gaston has had 1 tiebreak in his last 8 hard-court matches
- Faria's double-fault rate is 7 per hard-court match
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%

Prediction history

Jaime Faria: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Jaime Faria matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jaime Faria15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#79Jaime Faria1-2#126Christopher O'Connell

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·62%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#79Jaime Faria1-2#126Christopher O'Connell

Jaime Faria to win

62%probability

Christopher O'Connell won

Missed

24 Jul·ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria1-2#21Luciano Darderi

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·55%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria1-2#21Luciano Darderi

Jaime Faria to win

55%probability

Luciano Darderi won

Missed

23 Jul·ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria2-0#180Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·72%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria2-0#180Gonzalo Bueno

Jaime Faria to win

72%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#55Botic Van De Zandschulp0-2#92Jaime Faria

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#55Botic Van De Zandschulp0-2#92Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria to win

58%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#92Jaime Faria2-1#117Stan Wawrinka

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#92Jaime Faria2-1#117Stan Wawrinka

Jaime Faria to win

62%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jaime Faria

9W 6L

3-6 7-6(9) 6-4#83Terence Atmane

4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#77Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-2#24Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#99Adam Walton

6-4 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-3 6-2#77Jenson Brooksby

6-3 7-5#113Yibing Wu

6-4 6-4#145Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(2) 6-2#84Titouan Droguet

6-7(8) 6-2 6-4#115Christopher O'Connell

2-6 7-5 6-2#20Luciano Darderi

6-2 6-4#175Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-4#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#17Casper Ruud

Hugo Gaston

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#93Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-2 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

1-6 6-4 6-2#205Colton Smith

6-1 6-3#184Andre Ilagan

7-5 6-3#233Guido Ivan Justo

6-4 6-4#42Luca Van Assche

7-6(2) 6-1#95Jesper De Jong

5-2 ret.#130Alexei Popyrin

6-2 3-6 6-4#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 7-5 6-3#486Duncan Chan

6-4 7-5#42Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-4#354Tiago Torres

6-0 6-3#84Titouan Droguet

5-0 ret.#100Damir Dzumhur

6-2 7-5#67Daniel Altmaier

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JFJaime FariaFaria

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Hugo GastonGastonHG

Hugo Gaston carries the stronger recent form — Jaime Faria's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.4%+5.1pp51.3%

1st Serve Won72.5%+4.9pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+5.6pp54.3%

Aces / Match7.7+6.21.5

Double Faults / Match6.14.0 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+6.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.9%+11.6pp50.5%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+2.1pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+2.4pp51.9%

Serve · 3–2

56.4%1st Serve In+5.1pp51.3%

72.5%1st Serve Won+4.9pp67.6%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp54.3%

7.7Aces / Match+6.21.5

6.1Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+6.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.9%Break Pts Converted+11.6pp50.5%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+2.4pp51.9%

Jaime Faria

Hugo Gaston

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hugo Gaston +1.5

Over 23.5

Hugo Gaston

Hugo Gaston

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jaime Faria

Hugo Gaston

Stat Battle