ChinaATP ChengduFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Shintaro Mochizuki #117Japan2Pavel Kotov #250Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Wed 23 Sept 2026, 06:51 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 133 places

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 92 on November 10, 2025 after moving into the Top 100 that autumn. Former world No. 1 junior.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 22:52 · Europe/Bucharest

A Chengdu qualifying final with a main-draw place at stake, and Kotov starts favourite: he beat Mochizuki 7-6(4) 6-1 eight days ago in Guangzhou and has won 8 of his last 10 completed hard-court matches, though this is a sixth match in eight days.

Mochizuki, the higher-ranked man, has the fresher week. The one quoted price worth anything is over 23.5 games at 2.2; Kotov at 1.6 to win offers no clear advantage.

Context

Kotov has come from the Guangzhou final straight into a Chengdu qualifying opener on 22 September, with treatment on his right shoulder during that final, so he arrives at this qualifying final on a sixth match in eight days and no rest day between rounds. The asymmetry matters in this fixture because Mochizuki played only once in the same window, on 15 September, and will face an opponent holding a recent win over him while carrying the heavier recent load. The counterweight is that the workload has not yet cost him matches at this level: he won four times in Guangzhou, including that straight-sets win over Mochizuki, and completed the long Castelnuovo match in three sets. Shoulder treatment during a final is also a reported single episode rather than a withdrawal or retirement.
- Kotov was treated on his right shoulder during the second set of the Guangzhou Challenger final against Marat Sharipov.
- Kotov lost that final 6-0 6-3, his second defeat to Sharipov in two weeks after a Shanghai Challenger semi-final loss.
- Kotov then played a three-set Chengdu qualifying opener on 22 September 2026, beating Luca Castelnuovo 6-7(4) 7-5 7-5.
- The two results make this his sixth match between 15 and 22 September, against an opponent who played only one match in that window.
ReportedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:50 · Europe/Bucharest
The only recorded meeting between these two came eight days before this match, on the same China hard-court swing, and Kotov won it 7-6(4) 6-1 after edging a first-set tiebreak. It is the most recent completed form reference for the matchup and the reason the ranking order and the head-to-head point in different directions: Mochizuki was the top seed and the higher-ranked player in Guangzhou and still lost in straight sets. The limitation is that the venue and week differ, and Kotov followed that win with a 6-0 6-3 defeat in the Guangzhou final, so the result is a single recent sample rather than a settled pattern.
- Kotov beat Mochizuki 7-6(4) 6-1 in the Guangzhou Huangpu International Tennis Open first round .
- Mochizuki entered that Guangzhou event as the top seed and was the higher-ranked of the two at the time.
- The win began a Guangzhou run in which Kotov also beat Akira Santillan, Rio Noguchi and Bernard Tomic before the final.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:50 · Europe/BucharestChengdu Open match listingwww.tennis.com · 22 Sep 2026
Mochizuki needed three sets to get past an opponent ranked outside the top 800 and took a medical timeout while he trailed 0-3 in the deciding set, then returned to win it 7-5. He is back on court the following day against a heavier-serving opponent whom he lost to eight days ago, so the physical state he carries into the qualifying final is the open question in his preparation. The nature of the issue remains unresolved because no treatment area was visible and no subsequent detail on his condition has followed; the counterweight is that he completed the match, closed out the third set and had a much lighter schedule than Kotov over the previous week.
- Mochizuki beat Linang Xiao 7-5 4-6 7-5 in the Chengdu qualifying first round .
- Mochizuki took a medical timeout in that match during the deciding set, with treatment not visible, and continued to win it 7-5.
- Xiao entered the match ranked outside the top 800, more than 600 places below Mochizuki.
To watchSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Kotov has been the stronger player once the first set is out of the way on this China hard-court swing.
If the match reaches a second set, this is the strongest part of Kotov's hard-court profile, and four of those 10 second sets went to a tiebreak. The counterweight is the sample itself: 10 matches, one retired match excluded, and a 5-5 first-set record in the same period, so he has not always been in front by the time the second set starts.
- Kotov's hard-court best-of-3 set data covers 10 completed matches between 8 and 22 September 2026.
- He won eight second sets and lost two in that sample.
- His second sets average 6.1 games won and 4.7 games lost, with four tiebreaks.
- One retired match is excluded from the 10-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kotov has the stronger recent hard-court results and won their meeting eight days ago in straight sets.
- Kotov is 8-2 on hard in his last 10 completed matches, including a 7-6(4) 6-1 win over Mochizuki on 15 September.
- Kotov reached the Shanghai Challenger semi-finals and Guangzhou Challenger final on this China swing.
- Mochizuki is 7-8 on hard in his last 15 completed matches and lost to Kotov in straight sets in their only recent meeting.
- Kotov's set2 record on hard is 8-2, while Mochizuki's is 7-7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPavel KotovEstimated chance64%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's second sets frequently reach double-figure games, often through tiebreaks or tight service games.
- Mochizuki's second sets average 9.1 total games on hard.
- Kotov's second sets average 10.8 total games on hard.
- Kotov had four second-set tiebreaks in his last 10 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Kotov's recent second sets include 7-5, 7-6 and 5-7 scorelines.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's first sets often go beyond nine games, and his recent meeting with Mochizuki opened with a 7-6 set.
- Mochizuki's first sets average 9.7 total games on hard.
- Kotov's first sets average 10.2 total games on hard.
- Kotov had four first-set tiebreaks in his last 10 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Mochizuki had two first-set tiebreaks in his last 14 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have recent matches with high game totals, and Kotov's tiebreak-heavy sets can push the total past 23.5.
- Kotov's hard-court matches average 24.2 total games.
- Mochizuki's hard-court matches average 23.1 total games.
- Kotov's last six hard-court matches include totals of 37, 26 and 23 games.
- Mochizuki's last six hard-court matches include totals of 34, 29 and 23 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kotov has been notably strong in second sets and dominated the second set in their recent meeting.
- Kotov is 8-2 in second sets on hard in his last 10 best-of-3 matches.
- Mochizuki is 7-7 in second sets on hard in his last 14 best-of-3 matches.
- Kotov won the second set 6-1 against Mochizuki on 15 September.
- Kotov's second-set games average is 6.1 won and 4.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPavel KotovEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kotov's recent hard-court wins often come in straight sets, and he beat Mochizuki without dropping a set.
- Kotov has won 5 of his last 10 hard-court best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
- Mochizuki has lost 5 of his last 14 hard-court best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
- Kotov beat Mochizuki 7-6(4) 6-1 in their recent meeting.
- Kotov's hard-court matches average 2.3 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kotov has a better first-set record and won the opening set in their recent meeting.
- Kotov is 5-5 in first sets on hard in his last 10 best-of-3 matches.
- Mochizuki is 5-9 in first sets on hard in his last 14 best-of-3 matches.
- Kotov won the first set 7-6(4) against Mochizuki on 15 September.
- Kotov's first-set games average is 4.8 won and 5.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPavel KotovEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's recent hard-court matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and their last meeting had one.
- Kotov's last 10 hard-court best-of-3 matches included 7 with a tiebreak.
- Mochizuki's last 14 hard-court best-of-3 matches included 4 with a tiebreak.
- Kotov and Mochizuki played a first-set tiebreak in their 15 September meeting.
- Kotov had four second-set tiebreaks in his last 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Shintaro Mochizuki

7W 8L

7-5 4-6 7-5#817Linang Xiao

7-6(4) 6-1#188Pavel Kotov

6-1 6-4 7-5#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#223Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-1#202Braden Shick

7-6(5) 6-4#312Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#218Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#59Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#110Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#249Hayato Matsuoka

2-6 6-2 6-4#262Charles Broom

6-0 6-3#209Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#297Johannus Monday

6-2 2-6 6-4#486Duncan Chan

Pavel Kotov

9W 6L

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#376Luca Castelnuovo

6-0 6-3#232Marat Sharipov (RUS)7-6(3) 7-6(3)#182Bernard Tomic 6-1 7-6(2)#221Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#313Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#125Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#232Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#179Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#342Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#190Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#368Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#666Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#705Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#87Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#303Guy Den Ouden

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SMShintaro MochizukiMochizuki

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Pavel KotovKotovPK

Pavel Kotov carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In48.5%+16.5pp65.0%

1st Serve Won67.0%+3.4pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won43.9%+9.2pp53.1%

Aces / Match2.5+3.45.9

Double Faults / Match5.43.8 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.5%+5.4pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.9%+10.4pp35.5%

Break Pts Saved54.2%+8.0pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.3%+2.0pp50.3%

Serve · 0–5

48.5%1st Serve In+16.5pp65.0%

67.0%1st Serve Won+3.4pp70.4%

43.9%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp53.1%

2.5Aces / Match+3.45.9

5.4Double Faults / Match3.8 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

41.5%Return Pts Won+5.4pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

45.9%Break Pts Converted+10.4pp35.5%

54.2%Break Pts Saved+8.0pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won+2.0pp50.3%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Pavel Kotov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pavel Kotov

Pavel Kotov

Over 23.5

Pavel Kotov

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Shintaro Mochizuki

Pavel Kotov

Stat Battle