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Predictions graded

Rinky Hijikata #93Australia0Andrey Rublev #18Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Fri 25 Sept 2026, 10:34 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrey Rublev · 75 places

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

Hijikata reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 62 on 26 August 2024. Official ITF profile data lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #93
Peak ranking: #62 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Andrey Rublev

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 5 on 13 September 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #18
Peak ranking: #5 · 2021
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Rublev is the likelier winner, but the second seed plays his first match of the week after three weeks without singles, while Hijikata already has a win on these courts.

Rublev at 1.35 to win offers nothing. Three prices do carry something: Hijikata with a 3.5-game start at 1.9, over 23.5 games at 2.2, and Rublev to win 2-0 at 1.9.

Context

Rublev enters this tie without a completed match at the venue, so his first competitive points of the week come in the opening games here. His last singles appearance was a four-set loss at the US Open on 2 September, leaving more than three weeks without match play and no current sample of his form on these courts. Hijikata, by contrast, arrives with a match already played on the same surface. The bye is a standard consequence of seeding rather than evidence of an advantage beyond fresher legs.
- Rublev is the No. 2 seed at the 2026 Hangzhou Open and holds a first-round bye
- His first match of the event is the round-of-16 tie against the winner of the Hijikata-Svrcina first round
- His most recent singles match was a four-set US Open loss on 2 September 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
That doubles rubber was Hijikata's only competitive tennis between the US Open and this event, and it left him travelling from Australia to China inside the same week. It confirms he was fit and competing in the days before the tie. Doubles success is only indirect evidence for a singles match, though, and it does not test the baseline patterns this tie will demand. It also explains why his Hangzhou first round was his first singles match in more than three weeks.
- Hijikata and Purcell won their doubles rubber 7-6(3) 6-3
- Australia beat Poland 3-1 in the Davis Cup World Group I tie at Pat Rafter Arena
- The tie was played in Brisbane, five days before the Hangzhou round of 16
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Rublev's serve is the most dependable part of the record available for this tie.
A 10.3-ace match average and 75.9% of first-serve points won over 15 matches give Rublev cheap points that lower-ranked opponents struggle to answer, and that is the main reason he starts favourite despite the layoff. The window covers all surfaces rather than hard courts alone, so it describes his game overall, not conditions in Hangzhou.
- Rublev's last 15 completed matches include 154 aces, 10.3 per match
- He won 675 of 889 first-serve points in that window, 75.9%
- The window is his last 15 matches overall, not a hard-court-only split
The result gives Hijikata a completed match on these courts before facing the second seed, after more than three weeks without a singles match. It is limited evidence for this tie, because beating a qualifier ranked outside the top 100 says little about handling a top-25 opponent's pace and depth. The more useful signal is that he came through in straight sets rather than needing a third set.
- Hijikata beat Dalibor Svrcina 7-6(4) 6-4
- Svrcina had come through qualifying at the same event
- The win placed Hijikata in the round of 16 against Rublev
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Rublev's higher ranking and much stronger first serve give him the clearer route to winning.
- Rublev is ranked 25th to Hijikata's 82nd.
- Rublev has won 75.9% of first-serve points overall and 77% on hard this season.
- Hijikata has gone 5-5 on hard with 48.4% games won in his last 15 overall.
- Rublev holds a first-round bye and has not played since 2 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance70%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Hijikata can keep the match close because Rublev's recent hard-court form has not been dominant.
- Hijikata's hard-court games margin is -16 over ten matches.
- Rublev's hard-court games margin is +2 over five matches.
- Rublev has not played since 2 September.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRinky Hijikata +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' recent hard-court matches have often reached double-digit games.
- Hijikata's first sets in hard-court best-of-three matches average 9.7 total games.
- Rublev's first sets in hard-court best-of-three matches average 11.3 total games.
- Rublev has had a tiebreak in 1 of 3 hard-court best-of-three first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in Hijikata's recent hard-court matches have often gone past nine games.
- Hijikata's second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches average 10.2 total games.
- Rublev's second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches average 9.0 total games.
- Hijikata has had a tiebreak in 3 of 9 hard-court best-of-three second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have often gone beyond 23 games, with tiebreaks common.
- Hijikata's hard-court best-of-three matches average 23.2 total games.
- Rublev's hard-court best-of-three matches average 24.7 total games.
- Hijikata has had a tiebreak in 5 of 9 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Rublev's serve and ranking make him the likely first-set winner.
- Rublev won 77% of first-serve points on hard courts.
- Hijikata has a 4-5 record in first sets of hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev is ranked 25th to Hijikata's 82nd.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Rublev's overall serving strength still gives him the advantage in the second set.
- Rublev has won 2 of 3 second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Hijikata has won 5 of 9 second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev's first-serve points won on hard courts is 77%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndrey RublevEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set results are common for both players, and Rublev's serve gives him a good chance to win in two sets.
- Hijikata's hard-court best-of-three matches include 6 straight-set results in 9 matches.
- Rublev's three hard-court best-of-three matches include 2 straight-set results.
- Rublev's serve has produced 11.2 aces per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Rublev's serve and ranking give him a strong chance to win in straight sets.
- Rublev is ranked 25th to Hijikata's 82nd.
- Rublev won 77% of first-serve points on hard courts.
- Rublev has two straight-set results in three hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAndrey Rublev 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have often included at least one tiebreak.
- Hijikata has had a tiebreak in 5 of 9 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev has had a tiebreak in 2 of 3 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rublev averages 11.2 aces per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rublev's high ace count and Hijikata's modest contribution make over 15.5 aces likely if the match lasts long enough.
- Rublev averages 11.2 aces per hard-court match.
- Hijikata averages 3.7 aces per hard-court match.
- Combined, their hard-court averages are about 14.9 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have double-fault rates that together point to over 7.5 in a competitive match.
- Rublev averages 4.6 double faults per hard-court match.
- Hijikata averages 3.5 double faults per hard-court match.
- Combined, their hard-court averages are about 8.1 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Andrey Rublev: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Andrey Rublev matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Andrey Rublev15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev1-2#78Luca Van Assche

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·78%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev1-2#78Luca Van Assche

Andrey Rublev to win

78%probability

Luca Van Assche won

Missed

23 Jul·ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev2-0#163Timofey Skatov

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·82%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#14Andrey Rublev2-0#163Timofey Skatov

Andrey Rublev to win

82%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

19 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#18Luciano Darderi

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#18Luciano Darderi

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-1#31Alejandro Tabilo

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-1#31Alejandro Tabilo

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

17 Jul·ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#56Sebastian Baez

BetBugsAndrey Rublev to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#16Andrey Rublev2-0#56Sebastian Baez

Andrey Rublev to win

62%probability

Andrey Rublev won

Matched

Previous match context available

Rinky Hijikata

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-4#128Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#5Felix Auger Aliassime

6-1 6-1#90Benjamin Bonzi

3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#47Raphael Collignon

6-4 7-6(2)#166Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-4#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#20Luciano Darderi

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#254Gael Monfils

7-6(3) 6-3#66Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

2-6 6-3 6-2#50Denis Shapovalov

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#95Jesper De Jong

6-1 6-2#33Ugo Humbert

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#23Jiri Lehecka

6-2 6-4#32Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#85Marcos Giron

Andrey Rublev

8W 7L

6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-7(5) 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2 7-6(5)#103Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-4#48Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 6-1#69Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#253Juncheng Shang

3-6 6-3 6-4#42Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-1#199Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-3#20Luciano Darderi

6-4 4-6 6-4#32Alejandro Tabilo

6-1 6-2#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#144Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#102Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-2#46Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#15Jakub Mensik

7-5 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#48Nuno Borges

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RHRinky HijikataHijikata

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrey RublevRublevAR

Andrey Rublev carries the stronger recent form — Rinky Hijikata's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.2%+3.6pp60.8%

1st Serve Won68.7%+7.2pp75.9%

2nd Serve Won52.7%—53.0%

Aces / Match4.8+5.510.3

Double Faults / Match3.01.1 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.8%+2.2pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.0%+9.9pp32.1%

Break Pts Saved57.5%+9.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+1.5pp51.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In+3.6pp60.8%

68.7%1st Serve Won+7.2pp75.9%

52.7%2nd Serve Won—53.0%

4.8Aces / Match+5.510.3

3.0Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

37.8%Return Pts Won+2.2pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

42.0%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp32.1%

57.5%Break Pts Saved+9.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+1.5pp51.1%

Rinky Hijikata

Andrey Rublev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Rinky Hijikata +3.5

Andrey Rublev 2-0

Over 23.5

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Rinky Hijikata

Andrey Rublev

Stat Battle