BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Teodora Kostovic #150Serbia0Kaitlin Quevedo #110Spain2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Fri 18 Sept 2026, 16:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaitlin Quevedo · 40 places

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Kaitlin Quevedo

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 94 in August 2026. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface; her ranking improved from No. 144 at the end of 2025.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #94 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Quevedo is the higher-ranked player with a head-to-head win on clay, but Kostovic's stronger recent form and superior games-won percentage make this a close call.

The match winner market offers slight value on Quevedo at 1.73, while the total games over 21.5 and Kostovic +3.5 handicap are also attractive given the expected competitiveness.

Context

Kostovic, 186th, is a right-hander whose 2026 clay record (21-14) is her strongest surface by volume; Quevedo, 105th, has split her 2026 season between clay (23-10) and hard (7-5).
Kostovic's 73.3% recent win rate and 59.4% games-won rate are both better than Quevedo's 60% and 55.2% over the same 15-match window. Quevedo's counterweight is opponent quality: she beat Sara Sorribes Tormo (No. 193) and pushed Elise Mertens (No. 19) to 6-4 6-4, while Kostovic's recent wins came mostly against players ranked outside the top 100.
- Kostovic last 15: 11-4 (73.3%), 24 of 33 sets won, 59.4% games won.
- Quevedo last 15: 9-6 (60%), 19 of 33 sets won, 55.2% games won.
- Quevedo's recent losses include Claire Liu (No. 96) and Elise Mertens (No. 19); her wins include Sorribes Tormo (No. 193).
- Kostovic's last five include wins over Semenistaja (No. 120) and losses to Rus (No. 220) and Kubka (No. 171).
Kostovic, 18, is the WTA No. 186 right-hander and the home player in this São Paulo quarter-final. She has won three of her last five tracked matches and came through her second round in 1 hour 17 minutes.
She took a two-minute medical timeout during that 16 September win over Semenistaja and still finished it 6-4, 6-1, so nothing was visibly limiting her at the end. The treated area has not been identified, which leaves her short-term physical state as the one open question heading into the quarter-final. If the issue needs attention again, her movement and serving over a long match are the parts to watch.
- A two-minute medical timeout is logged for the match, which Kostovic completed in 1 hour 17 minutes.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
To watchSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/BucharestSemenistaja vs. Kostovic | Round of 16 SP Open 2026www.wtatennis.com · 16 Sep 2026
Both players are right-handers. Quevedo's 2026 hard record is 7-5; Kostovic's is 5-6, with her clay record (21-14) far more substantial.
On hard courts in the last 15-match window, Quevedo has saved 65% of break points and converted 58.8%, while Kostovic has saved 61.9% and converted 46.7%. Kostovic's first-serve points won (69.6%) is slightly higher than Quevedo's (66.6%), so the serve edge is not one-way. The hard-court samples are four and seven matches, so these splits should be treated as directional rather than settled.
- Quevedo hard last 15: 4-3, 66.6% first-serve points won, 58.8% break points converted, 65% break points saved (7 matches).
- Kostovic hard last 15: 2-2, 69.6% first-serve points won, 46.7% break points converted, 61.9% break points saved (4 matches).
- Kostovic's 2026 hard record is 5-6; Quevedo's is 7-5.
- Both players' hard-court samples in the last-15 window are small (4 and 7 matches).
This is the only recorded meeting between the two players, played on clay in May 2026. Quevedo won in three sets after dropping the second.
Quevedo's 68% first-serve percentage and 62% first-serve points won in that match were both better than Kostovic's 60% and 52%. Kostovic won more second-serve points (63% to 48%), which suggests the match turned on first-serve effectiveness. The switch to hard courts changes the conditions, so the H2H is a reference point rather than a direct guide.
- Quevedo won 7-6(3) 3-6 6-2 on clay in May 2026.
- Quevedo: 68% first-serve in, 62% first-serve points won, 4 aces, 4 double faults.
- Kostovic: 60% first-serve in, 52% first-serve points won, 3 aces, 2 double faults.
- Kostovic won 63% of second-serve points in that match; Quevedo won 48%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Quevedo's higher ranking, superior career baseline, and direct H2H win on clay give her the edge, though Kostovic's stronger recent win rate keeps this at medium confidence.
- Quevedo leads H2H 1-0, winning 7-6(3) 3-6 6-2 on clay (20 May 2026), converting 57% of break points vs Kostovic's 42%.
- Last-15 overall: Quevedo 60% match win rate (9/15) vs Kostovic 73.3% (11/15), but Quevedo's losses came against top-100 opposition (Mertens #19, Liu #96).
- Quevedo ranked 105 vs Kostovic 186; career win rate 67.9% vs 64.9%.
- Both players won their Sao Paulo R16 matches in straight sets on 16-17 September (Quevedo 6-2 6-1, Kostovic 6-4 6-1).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H three-setter and both players' lengthy average match durations suggest a competitive contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Kostovic's last-15 average match duration is 100.3 minutes; Quevedo's is 103.9 minutes.
- H2H match went to three sets (7-6 3-6 6-2), totalling 30 games.
- Both players have competitive recent records: Kostovic 11/15 wins, Quevedo 9/15 wins.
- Quevedo's last-15 games won is 55.2% (171/310); Kostovic's is 59.4% (180/303).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's higher recent games-won percentage and the close H2H margin suggest she can stay within 3.5 games even if she loses.
- Kostovic's last-15 games won: 59.4% (180/303) vs Quevedo's 55.2% (171/310).
- H2H match was decided by a single break in the third set (6-2), a 4-game margin.
- Kostovic's recent form includes a 6-4 6-1 win over Semenistaja (#120).
- Quevedo's recent losses to top-100 players were competitive (e.g., 6-4 6-4 vs Mertens).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTeodora Kostovic +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's strong hard-court first-serve numbers and clean recent set starts give her a slight edge to take the opening set.
- Quevedo's last-15 first-serve points won: 62.4% overall, 66.6% on hard courts (7 matches tracked).
- Kostovic's last-15 first-serve points won: 68% overall but only 69.6% on hard (4 matches tracked).
- Quevedo won her last two Sao Paulo matches without dropping a set, including a 6-0 opening set vs Tikhonova.
- H2H first set went to a tiebreak, which Quevedo won 7-6(3).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive H2H and both players' recent three-set matches point toward a match likely to go the distance.
- H2H match required three sets (7-6 3-6 6-2).
- Kostovic's last-15 sets won: 72.7% (24/33); Quevedo's: 57.6% (19/33).
- Both players have shown three-set tendencies recently: Quevedo played three-setters vs Sorribes Tormo and Sinclair Rogers in September.
- Kostovic's deciding-set win rate is 56% career; Quevedo's is 69%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's strong hard-court serving and recent straight-set wins give her a slight edge to take the second set if the match reaches it.
- Quevedo's last-15 hard-court first-serve points won: 66.6% (7 matches tracked).
- Kostovic's last-15 hard-court first-serve points won: 69.6% (4 matches tracked).
- Quevedo won the second set 6-3 in the H2H meeting.
- Quevedo has won her last two Sao Paulo matches in straight sets, including a 6-1 second set vs Leme Da Silva.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts in the recent window, and the H2H produced only 7 aces, making Under 8.5 likely.
- Kostovic's last-15 aces per match: 3.5 overall, 5.8 on hard (4 matches tracked).
- Quevedo's last-15 aces per match: 1.7 overall, 1.7 on hard (7 matches tracked).
- H2H match produced 7 total aces (Kostovic 3, Quevedo 4).
- Both players average under 4 aces per match in the recent window.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault rates and the H2H total of 6 suggest Over 5.5 is the more likely outcome.
- Kostovic's last-15 double faults per match: 2.9 overall, 3.3 on hard (4 matches tracked).
- Quevedo's last-15 double faults per match: 3.7 overall, 3.4 on hard (7 matches tracked).
- H2H match produced 6 double faults (Kostovic 2, Quevedo 4).
- Combined recent average is 6.6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H tiebreak and both players' recent close sets make at least one tiebreak in the match a reasonable expectation.
- H2H match featured a first-set tiebreak (7-6(3)).
- Kostovic's career tiebreak win rate is 44%; Quevedo's is 60%.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches (Kostovic vs Kubka, Gorgodze; Quevedo vs Ovcharenko, Jones).
- Quevedo's last-15 matches include several close sets (e.g., 7-5, 7-6).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Kaitlin Quevedo has been highly reliable when projected to win, with 11 of 13 fulfilled

Kaitlin Quevedo fulfilled 11 of 13 match-winner projections, exceeding the expected 8.7 based on average estimated probability. Both missed predictions were losses, and the current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 55% to 78%. Her matched projections averaged 68.1% while missed ones averaged 62%, indicating she has converted lower-probability opportunities less often.

Recent evidence for Kaitlin Quevedo13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#200Carole Monnet

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#200Carole Monnet

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

72%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

27 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#892Irina Fetecau

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·72%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#892Irina Fetecau

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

72%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

8 Jul·WTA Bastad

#219Kajsa Rinaldo Persson1-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·62%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#219Kajsa Rinaldo Persson1-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

62%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Bastad

#745Tiana Tian Deng0-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·78%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#745Tiana Tian Deng0-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

78%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#106Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#685Sayaka Ishii

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·78%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#106Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#685Sayaka Ishii

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

78%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(3) 3-6 6-2Teodora Kostovic#186vKaitlin Quevedo#105May 20, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Teodora Kostovic

11W 4L

6-4 6-1#120Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#827Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#220Arantxa Rus

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#171Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-0#231Vivian Wolff

6-3 7-6(5)#196Anna Siskova

6-2 6-4#410Julie Pastikova

6-4 6-4#766Kali Supova

6-4 6-0#889Arabella Koller

6-4 6-4#127Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-3#232Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(4) 6-1#152Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-3 6-0#135Tamara Zidansek

4-6 7-5 6-2#462Jule Niemeier

6-0 6-4#336Tessa Johanna Brockmann

Kaitlin Quevedo

9W 6L

6-2 6-1#660Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

6-0 6-2#245Anastasia Tikhonova

7-5 6-1#96Claire Liu

5-7 7-5 6-1#193Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 4-6 7-5#321Anna Sinclair Rogers

6-4 6-4#19Elise Mertens

6-1 0-6 7-6(5)#552Ekaterina Ovcharenko

2-6 6-3 6-1#118Laura Samson

7-6(5) ret.#106Francesca Jones

7-6(4) 6-3#215Carole Monnet

7-5 6-1#216Irene Burillo

6-1 6-3#892Irina Fetecau

7-5 6-4#47Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 7-6(2)#48Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-1#65Elena Gabriela Ruse

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TKTeodora KostovicKostovic

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Kaitlin QuevedoQuevedoKQ

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Kaitlin Quevedo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In60.1%+4.6pp55.5%

1st Serve Won68.0%+5.6pp62.4%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+2.8pp46.8%

Aces / Match3.5+1.81.7

Double Faults / Match2.90.8 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won48.3%—48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.0%+2.6pp52.6%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+0.9pp60.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.3%+2.2pp52.1%

Serve · 5–0

60.1%1st Serve In+4.6pp55.5%

68.0%1st Serve Won+5.6pp62.4%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp46.8%

3.5Aces / Match+1.81.7

2.9Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

48.3%Return Pts Won—48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted+2.6pp52.6%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp60.6%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won+2.2pp52.1%