BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Darja Semenistaja #1120Teodora Kostovic #150Serbia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Wed 16 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarja Semenistaja · 38 places

Darja Semenistaja

Latvian left-hander, born 16 September 2002. Official player data lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 87.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #87
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 169 cm

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 22:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Kostovic's superior recent form and serving give her a clear edge over Semenistaja.

Back Kostovic to win and consider over 5.5 total aces. The match could be competitive, but Kostovic's dominance suggests a straight-set victory is likely.

Context

Kostovic, 186th, is a clay-court specialist who has built most of her ranking points on that surface.
Her recent hard-court sample is small but shows a clear drop: 33% win rate and only 38.2% return points won, compared to 51.3% on clay. Semenistaja is more comfortable on hard courts and can pressure Kostovic's second serve, which has been vulnerable.
- Kostovic's last 15 by surface: 9-2 on clay, 1-2 on hard.
- Hard-court return points won: 38.2% vs 51.3% on clay.
- Hard-court second serve points won: 53.5%, but double faults per match rise to 3.3.
Semenistaja, ranked 120th, is a left-hander with a balanced career record on hard courts.
Her hard-court wins in this window came against Kinoshita (210) and Shubladze (157), while she lost to Potapova (25) and Hunter (175). Against Kostovic, who is ranked 186th, Semenistaja's level against similar opponents has been inconsistent.
- Semenistaja's last 6 hard-court matches: wins over Kinoshita (210), Shubladze (157), Kinoshita (210); losses to Tikhonova (245), Potapova (25), Hunter (175).
- Her hard-court record in last 15 is 3-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Teodora Kostovic

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Kostovic's stronger recent overall form and superior serve/return metrics give her the edge in this hard-court matchup.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Teodora Kostovic

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Kostovic's superior first-serve and return effectiveness should allow her to control the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kostovic's stronger recent form and superior serve/return metrics give her the edge in this hard-court matchup.
- Kostovic last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Semenistaja 5-10 (33.3%)
- Kostovic last15 games won 57.1% vs Semenistaja 44.6%
- Kostovic last15 break points saved 59.6% vs Semenistaja 47.5%
- Kostovic career win% 64.7% vs Semenistaja 61.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with multiple breaks, pushing total games over the line.
- Semenistaja last15 average match duration 112 min, Kostovic 99.4 min
- Semenistaja last15 games per match average 23.6, Kostovic 20.2
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Semenistaja 38.9%, Kostovic 49.6%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is expected to be closely contested, with a high chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Semenistaja last15 first set average games 9.8, Kostovic 9.3
- Both players have similar first serve percentages (Semenistaja 62.7%, Kostovic 60.7%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kostovic's superior first-serve and return effectiveness should allow her to control the opening set.
- Kostovic last15 first serve points won 67.3% vs Semenistaja 55.6%
- Kostovic last15 return points won 47.0% vs Semenistaja 43.4%
- Kostovic last15 total points won 53.3% vs Semenistaja 47.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's strong serving, especially on hard courts, should push total aces over 5.5.
- Kostovic last15 aces per match 3.7, Semenistaja 1.4
- Kostovic hard-court aces per match 7.3 in 3 matches
- Semenistaja hard-court aces per match 1.2 in 6 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's higher double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Kostovic last15 double faults per match 2.7, Semenistaja 1.4
- Kostovic hard-court double faults per match 3.3 in 3 matches
- Semenistaja hard-court double faults per match 1.8 in 6 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Darja Semenistaja

5W 10L

7-5 6-4#210Hayu Kinoshita

6-4 4-6 7-5#245Anastasia Tikhonova

6-2 6-2#25Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-1#175Storm Hunter

7-6(5) 6-4#157Alexandra Shubladze

6-2 7-5#210Hayu Kinoshita

7-6(6) 4-6 5-3 ret.#421Denislava Glushkova

6-2 6-3#184Mia Ristic

3-6 6-3 6-2#95Sinja Kraus

6-1 4-6 6-1#144Julia Riera

6-2 2-6 6-2#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 3-6 6-3#79Antonia Ruzic

6-4 6-2#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-4 1-6 6-2#199Nao Hibino

7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#196Anna Siskova

Teodora Kostovic

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#827Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#220Arantxa Rus

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#171Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-0#231Vivian Wolff

6-3 7-6(5)#196Anna Siskova

6-2 6-4#410Julie Pastikova

6-4 6-4#766Kali Supova

6-4 6-0#889Arabella Koller

6-4 6-4#127Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-3#232Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(4) 6-1#152Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-3 6-0#135Tamara Zidansek

4-6 7-5 6-2#462Jule Niemeier

6-0 6-4#336Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-2 6-3#2Aryna Sabalenka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDarja SemenistajaSemenistaja

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Teodora KostovicKostovicTK

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Darja Semenistaja's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.7%+2.0pp60.7%

1st Serve Won55.6%+11.7pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+1.7pp47.9%

Aces / Match1.4+2.33.7

Double Faults / Match1.41.3 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.4%+3.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.9%+10.7pp49.6%

Break Pts Saved47.5%+12.1pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.5%+5.8pp53.3%

Serve · 2–3

62.7%1st Serve In+2.0pp60.7%

55.6%1st Serve Won+11.7pp67.3%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp47.9%

1.4Aces / Match+2.33.7

1.4Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

43.4%Return Pts Won+3.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

38.9%Break Pts Converted+10.7pp49.6%

47.5%Break Pts Saved+12.1pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won+5.8pp53.3%