Kajsa Rinaldo Persson #219Sweden11 – 2Kaitlin Quevedo #107Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38

The read

Quevedo's superior clay-court record and higher first-set win conversion give her a structural edge on this surface.

• Quevedo has a 16-6 clay record in 2026 (72.7% win rate) vs Rinaldo Persson's 23-13 (63.9%).
• Quevedo's career clay win percentage is 68.5% (89-41) vs Rinaldo Persson's 60.4% (184-121).
• Quevedo's first-set win conversion is 90% career, and she has won 8 of her last 10 matches.
• Rinaldo Persson's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, with losses to Ferro (rank 188) and Avanesyan (rank 211).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent matches have trended toward higher game totals, and their return stats suggest breaks will extend the match.

• Rinaldo Persson's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Quevedo's last 5 matches averaged 21.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates near 49%, indicating competitive return games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Rinaldo Persson's competitive recent form and home support should keep the match within a 3.5-game margin.

• Rinaldo Persson's last 5 losses were by margins of 5, 8, 6, 6, and 4 games.
• Quevedo's last 5 wins were by margins of 7, 9, 2, 7, and 5 games.
• Rinaldo Persson's home advantage and recent tight match vs Galfi suggest she can keep it close.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While recent first sets have been mixed, the serve quality on both sides could push the set beyond 9.5 games.

• Rinaldo Persson's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 2-6, 1-6, 4-6, 6-2 (average 9.4 games).
• Quevedo's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 4-6, 6-0, 3-6, 6-3 (average 8.6 games).
• Both players have strong first-serve win percentages (60-61%), which can lead to tighter sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48

The read

Quevedo's elite first-set conversion rate and recent form suggest she is likely to start strongly.

• Quevedo's career first-set win conversion is 90%, and she has won the first set in 7 of her last 10 matches.
• Rinaldo Persson's first-set win conversion is 85%, but she lost the first set in 2 of her last 5 matches.
• Quevedo's recent form: won first set in 4 of last 5 matches, including a 6-2 set vs Deng on clay.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, making a total under 5.5 highly likely.

• Rinaldo Persson's ace rate is 1.6% (career 377 aces in 497 matches).
• Quevedo's ace rate is 2.5% (career 358 aces in 222 matches).
• In their last 5 matches, neither player averaged more than 2 aces per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Rinaldo Persson's high double fault rate combined with Quevedo's moderate rate should push the total over 7.5.

• Rinaldo Persson's double fault rate is 7.1% (career 1706 in 497 matches).
• Quevedo's double fault rate is 3.6% (career 526 in 222 matches).
• Rinaldo Persson averages over 3 double faults per match, Quevedo around 2.