BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Anastasia Tikhonova #262Russia0Kaitlin Quevedo #110Spain2

Sets 0-6 · 2-6Wed 16 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaitlin Quevedo · 152 places

Anastasia Tikhonova

Russia

Right-hander whose career-high singles ranking is No. 151, reached in January 2024. Official player data lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #151 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kaitlin Quevedo

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 94 in August 2026. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface; her ranking improved from No. 144 at the end of 2025.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #94 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 19:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Kaitlin Quevedo is the clear favorite over Anastasia Tikhonova due to superior ranking, recent form, and return game.

Quevedo's strong first-set conversion and Tikhonova's serving vulnerabilities point to a straight-set win. Bet on Quevedo to win and over 20.5 total games, but avoid Tikhonova at long odds.

Context

Quevedo, ranked 105, is the higher-ranked player but has a stronger career record on clay than hard courts.
Her last five hard-court matches include losses to Claire Liu and Elise Mertens, and a win over Sara Sorribes Tormo. Tikhonova's recent hard-court results are slightly better, but the sample is small and both players have mixed form.
- Quevedo's last 5 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 3 losses (40% win rate).
- Tikhonova's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 2 losses (60% win rate).
- Quevedo's career hard-court win percentage is 45/238 (18.9%), while Tikhonova's is 124/430 (28.8%).
Anastasia Tikhonova, ranked No. 245, entered the Sao Paulo main draw as a lucky loser after Whitney Osuigwe withdrew with illness.
The late entry shortened her preparation window and changed her scheduled opponent. She now faces Kaitlin Quevedo on short notice, which can disrupt practice rhythm and match planning. However, Tikhonova has won three of her last five tracked matches, so she arrives with some competitive sharpness.
- Whitney Osuigwe withdrew because of illness, and Tikhonova took her place in the main draw.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 19:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Tikhonova, ranked 245, relies on her serve but has struggled with consistency recently.
Her first-serve percentage is 52.1% and she averages 5 double faults per match. Quevedo's return game is solid, winning 47.4% of return points, which could put pressure on Tikhonova's second serve.
- Tikhonova's last 15 overall: first serve in 52.1%, double faults per match 5.0.
- Quevedo's last 15 overall: return points won 47.4%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's superior ranking, recent form, and return game give her the edge on hard court.
- Quevedo ranking 105 vs Tikhonova 245
- Quevedo last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Tikhonova 6-9 (40%)
- Quevedo career win% 67.6 vs Tikhonova 57
- Quevedo return points won 47.4% vs Tikhonova 42.1% in last15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and the total games line is likely to be surpassed.
- Tikhonova last15 average 20.4 games per match
- Quevedo last15 average 22.1 games per match
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is expected to be close, with both players capable of holding serve.
- Tikhonova last15 first set average 9.4 games
- Quevedo last15 first set average 9.8 games
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's strong first-set conversion and better overall form suggest she can take the opener.
- Quevedo first set win conversion career 90%
- Tikhonova first set win conversion career 86%
- Quevedo last15 hard court record 2-3, but overall recent form better
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 7.5 likely.
- Tikhonova last15 double faults per match 5.0
- Quevedo last15 double faults per match 3.6
- Combined average 8.6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate suggests a moderate chance of exceeding 5.5 total aces.
- Tikhonova last15 aces per match 3.8
- Quevedo last15 aces per match 1.9
- Combined average 5.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Tikhonova's long odds may tempt bettors, but her recent hard-court form and matchup metrics do not support an upset.

Previous match context available

Anastasia Tikhonova

6W 9L

6-2 6-2#241Whitney Osuigwe 6-2 6-1#437Maria Florencia Urrutia

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#156Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-4#199Nao Hibino

6-4 4-6 7-5#120Darja Semenistaja

6-3 6-2#313Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-4 6-0#271Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-3 6-0#561Ruth Roura Llaverias

6-4 6-1#386Jessica Pieri

6-2 7-5#771Lola Giza

6-3 2-6 7-5#400Tena Lukas

6-1 6-4#850Victoria Pohle

6-1 6-2#256Alice Rame

6-4 7-5#273Eva Bennemann

3-6 6-3 6-4#138Polina Iatcenko

Kaitlin Quevedo

8W 7L

7-5 6-1#96Claire Liu

5-7 7-5 6-1#193Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 4-6 7-5#321Anna Sinclair Rogers

6-4 6-4#19Elise Mertens

6-1 0-6 7-6(5)#552Ekaterina Ovcharenko

2-6 6-3 6-1#118Laura Samson

7-6(5) ret.#106Francesca Jones

7-6(4) 6-3#215Carole Monnet

7-5 6-1#216Irene Burillo

6-1 6-3#892Irina Fetecau

7-5 6-4#47Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 7-6(2)#48Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-1#65Elena Gabriela Ruse

7-5 6-2#97Simona Waltert

4-6 6-4 6-4#216Irene Burillo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ATAnastasia TikhonovaTikhonova

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Kaitlin QuevedoQuevedoKQ

Kaitlin Quevedo carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Tikhonova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In52.1%+5.1pp57.2%

1st Serve Won64.6%+4.4pp60.2%

2nd Serve Won48.3%+3.7pp44.6%

Aces / Match3.8+1.91.9

Double Faults / Match5.01.4 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.1%+5.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.4%+3.3pp49.7%

Break Pts Saved56.3%+3.0pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+0.9pp50.5%

Serve · 3–2

52.1%1st Serve In+5.1pp57.2%

64.6%1st Serve Won+4.4pp60.2%

48.3%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp44.6%

3.8Aces / Match+1.91.9

5.0Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

42.1%Return Pts Won+5.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 0–2

46.4%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp49.7%

56.3%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.5%