FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France2Clement Chidekh #205France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Fri 18 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Chidekh · 50 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh's 7-0 indoor-hard form and 68.8% games-won rate make him the rightful favorite, though Mayot's 2-1 H2H lead and deciding-set history cap confidence.

Best angle is Chidekh match winner at 1.73 (4.2-point edge), with Chidekh 2-0 at 2.60 as a higher-risk value play; avoid Mayot 2-0 at 3.30.

Context

Chidekh, 24, is ranked 191 and has spent most of 2026 on indoor hard courts, where he has won 24 of 30 matches. Mayot, 24, is ranked 288 and has played a more mixed schedule across clay and hard.
Chidekh has won 12 of 15 recent matches and 7 of 7 on indoor hard, while Mayot has won 9 of 15 overall and 6 of 8 on outdoor hard. The indoor sample is small but consistent, and it points to Chidekh arriving in better results form.
- Chidekh last 15: 12-3 overall, 7-0 on indoor hard, 5-3 on outdoor hard.
- Mayot last 15: 9-6 overall, 6-2 on outdoor hard, 2-6 on clay.
- Chidekh's 2026 indoor hard record is 24-6; Mayot's is 1-0.
Mayot's hard-court game is built on a heavier first serve and more aggressive return position than his clay results suggest. Chidekh's hard-court numbers are more modest despite his higher ranking.
On hard courts in the last 15 matches, Mayot has won 72.6% of first-serve points and 40.9% of return points, while Chidekh has won 67% and 43.9%. Mayot's serve numbers are clearly better, but Chidekh's return numbers are slightly better, so the two metrics pull in opposite directions.
- Mayot hard-court last 15: 72.6% first-serve points won, 40.9% return points won.
- Chidekh hard-court last 15: 67% first-serve points won, 43.9% return points won.
- Mayot hard-court record last 15: 6-2; Chidekh hard-court record last 15: 5-3.
Mayot, 23, is the home player at the Rennes indoor hard event and sits at ATP No. 288; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand and has won four of his last five tracked matches.
Mayot reached the Rennes quarter-final on September 16 by walkover when Murphy Cassone did not play their round-of-16 match, so he arrives without a second-round match on court. That is fresher legs but less recent match rhythm, while Chidekh completed his round-of-16 match before this quarter-final.
- The September 16 Rennes round-of-16 record lists a walkover for Mayot against Murphy Cassone.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest365Scores — Harold Mayot vs Murphy Cassonewww.365scores.com · 16 Sep 2026
Chidekh retired at 3-4 in the first set against Timo Legout on August 8, 2026, in an outdoor hard-court event. He returned on September 8 and has won seven matches in a row without dropping a set.
The retirement is about six weeks old and Chidekh has since played seven matches in nine days, all in straight sets. That workload and the lack of any retirement since suggest the issue is not currently limiting him, though the quick turnaround into a quarter-final is a mild load concern.
- Chidekh retired at 3-4 in the first set against Timo Legout on 2026-08-08.
- Since returning on 2026-09-08, Chidekh has won seven straight matches, all in straight sets.
- Chidekh has played seven matches in nine days entering this quarter-final.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Chidekh's far stronger recent form and dominant indoor-hard window (7-0, 68.8% games) outweigh Mayot's narrow H2H lead, and the surface-fit edge is the strongest Core 5 signal here.
- Chidekh last-15 overall: 12-3 record (80%), 61.8% games won, 55.0% total points won across 15 tracked matches
- Chidekh indoor hard last-15 split: 7-0, 14/14 sets, 68.8% games won, 59.3% total points won (7 matches tracked)
- Mayot last-15 overall: 9-6 (60%), 50.5% games won, 50.5% total points won; indoor hard sample only 1 match
- H2H 3 meetings: Mayot leads 2-1, but Chidekh won the most recent (6-2 2-6 6-4, Sept 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's quick indoor-hard wins and short average duration point to a compact match, though Mayot's competitiveness in the H2H caps confidence.
- Chidekh last-15 average match duration 98 minutes (14 tracked), with 7 indoor-hard wins averaging 78 minutes
- Chidekh's recent indoor-hard wins were mostly lopsided: 6-1 6-1, 6-1 6-3, 6-1 6-4, 6-3 6-4
- Mayot last-15 average duration 103.3 minutes, but his indoor-hard sample is only 1 match (143 min)
- H2H games: 6-2 2-6 6-4 (24), 6-4 7-6 (23), 6-7 6-4 6-3 (32) — two of three under 25
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's superior games-won rate and lopsided indoor-hard scorelines support covering a 3.5-game handicap, driven by the surface-fit and form signals.
- Chidekh last-15 games won 61.8% vs Mayot 50.5%
- Chidekh indoor-hard games won 68.8% (86/125) across 7 tracked matches
- Chidekh's recent indoor-hard wins came by margins like 6-1 6-1 and 6-1 6-3
- Mayot's indoor-hard last-15 sample is only 1 match, limiting his counter-evidence
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostClement Chidekh -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Chidekh's clean indoor-hard set record and strong opening-set conversion support him taking set one, backed by the recent-form and surface-fit signals.
- Chidekh has won the opening set in all 7 tracked indoor-hard matches in the last-15 window
- Chidekh career firstSetWinConversion 90% vs Mayot 89%
- Mayot's last-15 first-set profile is mixed: he lost the opener in 3 of his last 5 tracked matches
- Chidekh's last-5 matches: all straight-set wins, dropping no set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Chidekh's perfect second-set record on indoor hard and straight-set streak support him taking set two, backed by the surface-fit and form signals.
- Chidekh won set two in all 7 tracked indoor-hard matches in the last-15 window
- Chidekh's last-5 matches were all straight-set wins, taking the second set each time
- Mayot's last-15 sets won is only 54.3%, indicating second-set vulnerability
- H2H: Chidekh won the second set in 2 of 3 meetings
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Chidekh's dominant straight-set indoor-hard run makes a two-set match the more likely outcome, though the H2H's deciding-set history tempers the edge.
- Chidekh has won 27 of 33 sets (81.8%) in the last-15 window, with 7 straight-set indoor-hard wins
- Chidekh's last-5 matches were all straight-set victories
- Mayot's last-15 sets won is only 54.3% (19/35), indicating frequent set losses
- H2H: 2 of 3 meetings went to a deciding set, a counterweight to the straight-set trend
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's lopsided indoor-hard wins reduce tiebreak likelihood, though Mayot's occasional tight sets keep this a low-confidence lean.
- Chidekh's 7 indoor-hard wins in the last-15 window produced no tiebreaks
- Chidekh's recent indoor-hard scorelines were decisive (6-1 6-1, 6-1 6-3, 6-3 6-4)
- Mayot's last-15 matches include tiebreaks in 3 of 15 tracked matches
- H2H had one tiebreak in 3 meetings (6-4 7-6)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined recent double-fault rates sit just above the line, giving a slight over lean with low confidence given the thin margin.
- Chidekh last-15 double faults per match 2.2 (31/14 tracked)
- Mayot last-15 double faults per match 1.8 (27/15 tracked)
- Combined recent rate is roughly 4 per match, near the 3.5 line
- H2H double faults: Chidekh 9 vs Mayot 6 across 3 meetings
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players post low recent ace counts, making an under on combined aces the lean, though the H2H's Mayot ace volume keeps confidence low.
- Chidekh last-15 aces per match 2.9 (40/14 tracked)
- Mayot last-15 aces per match 4.1 (62/15 tracked)
- Combined recent ace rate is roughly 7 per match, below the 9.5 line
- H2H aces: Mayot 30 vs Chidekh 8 across 3 meetings, a modest upward risk
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections

Clement Chidekh fulfilled 5 of 7 match-winner projections, with an average estimated probability of 64.7% and 4.5 expected fulfilled predictions. Both missed projections were subject losses, and the current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 58% to 72%. The missed average estimated probability of 62% is lower than the matched average of 65.8%, indicating that slightly lower-probability projections have been less reliable.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

L6-2 2-6 6-4Harold Mayot#288vClement Chidekh#191Sep 12, 2025

W6-4 7-6(4)Harold Mayot#288vClement Chidekh#191Aug 5, 2025

W6-7(3) 6-4 6-3Harold Mayot#288vClement Chidekh#191Oct 4, 2024

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

9W 6L

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#159Clement Tabur 6-1 6-3#219Max Basing 6-4 6-2#365Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#477Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#271Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#170Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#671Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#123Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#270Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-3#257Mika Brunold

6-4 2-6 6-1#225Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-0#236Andrej Nedic

Clement Chidekh

12W 3L

6-3 6-4#337Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#636Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#705Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#615Alexander Vasilev

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-3 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#63Arthur Gea

6-2 6-2#900Federico Coria

2-6 7-5 6-1#81Valentin Royer

6-1 6-3#195Lautaro Midon

6-2 6-4#452Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 4-6 6-4#232Jay Clarke

3-4 ret.#444Timo Legout

4-6 6-2 6-3#333Cruz Hewitt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Clement ChidekhChidekhCC

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.2%—62.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.4%—70.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.9%+4.9pp52.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.1+1.22.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.80.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.4%+6.8pp46.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1535.0%+12.1pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.3%+5.8pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+4.5pp55.0%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

63.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—62.8%

70.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—70.3%

47.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp52.8%

4.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.22.9

1.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

39.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.8pp46.2%

Pressure · 0–2

35.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+12.1pp47.1%

53.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp55.0%

Harold Mayot

Clement Chidekh

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Harold Mayot

Clement Chidekh

Stat Battle