Mika Petkovic #429Germany00 – 2Felix Gill #214United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43

The read

Gill's superior clay-court pedigree and career baseline give him the edge despite a poor recent overall form, while Petkovic's recent clay form is only marginally better.

• Felix Gill has a 63% career win rate and 193 career clay wins, while Mika Petkovic has a 58.9% career win rate and 59 clay wins.
• Gill's last 15 overall record is 4-11 (26.7%), but his clay surface record in 2026 is 17-9 (65.4%).
• Petkovic's last 15 overall record is 6-9 (40%), with a 49.3% games won percentage.
• Gill has a higher career first serve percentage (63% vs 59%) and a higher tiebreak win percentage (59% vs 49%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches average over 24 total games, and their similar games won percentages suggest a closely contested match likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Petkovic's last 15 matches average 24.1 total games per match (361 games / 15 matches).
• Gill's last 15 matches average 24.8 total games per match (372 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have similar games won percentages around 45-49%, indicating competitive sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The players' serve effectiveness and recent close first sets suggest a first set with at least 10 games is likely.

• Petkovic's last 15 matches include several tiebreaks and close first sets, with an average first set games of 9.7.
• Gill's recent matches on clay and hard courts show competitive first sets, with an average first set games of 9.5.
• Both players have first serve points won percentages around 69-70%, leading to fewer breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gill's higher first serve percentage and strong first set conversion rate suggest he can start well, though Petkovic's recent first serve points won is slightly better.

• Gill has a 89% first set win conversion rate in his career, compared to Petkovic's 84%.
• Gill's last 15 first serve points won is 69.3%, while Petkovic's is 70.5%.
• Petkovic's last 15 first serve in percentage is 54.6%, lower than Gill's 64.7%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Petkovic's high double fault rate and Gill's moderate rate make a combined total over 4.5 double faults likely.

• Petkovic averages 3.7 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
• Gill averages 1.5 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
• Combined, their recent double fault averages sum to 5.2 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The players' serve effectiveness and history of tiebreaks suggest at least one tiebreak in the match is likely.

• Petkovic has a 49% career tiebreak win percentage and has played several tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
• Gill has a 59% career tiebreak win percentage and has played tiebreaks in recent matches.
• Both players have first serve points won percentages around 69-70%, which can lead to tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gill's higher recent ace rate and both players' career ace rates suggest a combined total over 5.5 aces is plausible.

• Gill averages 4.1 aces per match in his last 15 matches, while Petkovic averages 1.9 aces per match.
• Gill's career ace count is 877 in 370 matches (2.37 per match), and Petkovic's is 365 in 151 matches (2.42 per match).
• Combined, their recent ace averages sum to 6.0 per match.