Nottingham - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

William JansenUnited Kingdom1Felix Gill #220United Kingdom2

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 4-6Tue 7 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions8–0100%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

William Jansen

United Kingdom

Reliable public profile detail was thin in the mandated search set. Structured data lists him as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand at 188 cm; use recent form and match stats as the main context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Felix Gill

United Kingdom

Born 1 June 2002. Public results show a clay-heavy ITF title base, while June 2026 brought his first main-draw grass breakthrough during the British swing.

Current ranking: #220
Peak ranking: #220 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jul 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Felix Gill’s superior return game and recent grass-court activity give him the edge over William Jansen, but Jansen’s serve and ability to stay close in matches make a straight-sets win less certain.

Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and a likely tiebreak, while Jansen +3.5 games offers the best betting value.

Context

Gill competed in Birmingham, Ilkley, and Eastbourne since early June, winning his first main-draw grass match in Birmingham.
- Jansen's last recorded matches before this week were in late June, with no public results from the British grass swing outside Nottingham.
- Gill's recent opponents include top-100 players like Jan Choinski and Rafael Jodar, while Jansen faced lower-ranked qualifiers.
Gill's career return points won is 42% vs Jansen's 38%.
- On grass, Gill's return numbers have been tested against higher-ranked opponents, while Jansen's return stats come from a smaller sample.
- Gill's break point conversion rate (45%) is slightly higher than Jansen's (44%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Felix Gill

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Felix Gill's superior overall win rate, recent quality wins, and better return stats give him a clear edge over William Jansen.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Gill

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Gill's 89% first-set win conversion and recent strong starts give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Felix Gill's superior overall win rate, recent quality wins, and better return stats give him a clear edge over William Jansen.
- Felix Gill has a career win rate of 63.5% vs William Jansen's 53.2%.
- Gill's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Hugo Gaston, Ugo Blanchet) while Jansen's wins are against lower-ranked players.
- Gill has a stronger return game with 42% return points won vs Jansen's 38%.
- Gill has a higher first-set win conversion rate (89% vs 85%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix GillEstimated chance65%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players suggest a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.
- Jansen's last 3 matches averaged 22.3 games per match.
- Gill's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match.
- Both players have a tendency to play close sets, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jansen's ability to stay competitive in losses suggests he can cover a +3.5 game handicap against Gill.
- Jansen's last 3 losses were by margins of 4, 3, and 7 games, with two within 3.5 games.
- Gill's last 5 wins were by an average margin of 4.2 games, but two were by only 2 games.
- Jansen has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents like Remy Bertola (rank 187).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonWilliam Jansen +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent second-set game counts for both players hover around the 9.5 mark, making over 9.5 a reasonable outcome.
- In Jansen's last 5 matches, the second set averaged 9.4 games.
- In Gill's last 5 matches, the second set averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have shown the ability to push sets to 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gill's high first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong make him likely to take the opening set.
- Gill's first-set win conversion rate is 89% compared to Jansen's 85%.
- Gill has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 wins.
- Jansen lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix GillEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gill's high frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches makes a tiebreak likely in this encounter.
- Gill has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Jansen has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches.
- Gill's tiebreak win rate is 60%, indicating frequent tiebreak involvement.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

William Jansen

7W 8L

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#711Theo Papamalamis

6-1 6-2#884Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-2 5-7 6-2#897Dev Javia

7-5 2-6 7-6(4)#187Remy Bertola

6-1 6-4#205Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#661Aidan Kim

6-4 6-2—Ilija Palavestra

7-6(6) 6-3#551James Story

6-1 6-4#619Daniel De Jonge

6-3 6-4#1854Hugo Pierre

7-5 6-1#1581Joe Tyler

7-6(7) 5-7 11-9—Cian Mcdonnell

6-4 6-2#401Patrick Zahraj

6-1 6-3#859Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

4-6 6-2 6-4#619Daniel De Jonge

Felix Gill

5W 10L

6-3 6-3 7-5#26Rafael Jodar

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#100Jan Choinski

6-3 7-6(7)#94Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#140Otto Virtanen

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-2#118Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 4-6 6-1#312Filippo Romano

6-3 6-3#45Kamil Majchrzak

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#170Ugo Blanchet

7-6(5) 6-3#139Kyrian Jacquet

2-6 7-5 7-6(9)#101Alex Molcan

6-3 1-6 6-4#828Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-4#154Zdenek Kolar

6-7(6) 6-1 6-3#112Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 7-6(5) 3-1 ret.#132Roman Safiullin

6-4 6-7(5) 6-0#268Franco Agamenone