Aziz Dougaz #666Tunisia11 – 2Felix Gill #234United Kingdom2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Felix Gill's significantly higher ranking, dominant clay-court record, and superior recent form against stronger opposition make him the clear favorite.

• Felix Gill has a 64.4% career win rate and is ranked #237, while Aziz Dougaz is ranked #666 with a 59.1% career win rate.
• Gill is 15-7 on clay in 2026 and 51-14 in 2025, showing strong surface affinity; Dougaz is 0-2 on clay in 2026 and 2-3 in 2025.
• Gill's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents (Cecchinato #180, Agamenone #269) and competitive losses to higher-ranked players; Dougaz's last 5 matches show 1 win vs #542 and losses to #201, #276, #248, #311.
• Gill's return points won (42%) and break point conversion (45%) exceed Dougaz's (40% and 43%), giving him an edge in breaking serve.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Dougaz's recent competitive losses and Gill's occasional blowout losses indicate that Dougaz is likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Dougaz's last 5 losses were by margins of 4, 4, 0, 0, and 0 games, with only one exceeding a 3.5-game differential.
• Gill's last 5 wins were by margins of 7, 6, 5, 5, and 4 games, but his losses were by 4, 7, 1, 9, and 9 games, showing variability.
• Dougaz's serve and return stats are only slightly inferior to Gill's, suggesting he can keep the match close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their balanced break point stats indicate a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Dougaz's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Gill's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Dougaz 61.7%, Gill 60.6%) and convert rates (Dougaz 43%, Gill 45%), suggesting competitive games and potential for extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Gill's high first-set conversion rate and Dougaz's recent struggles in opening sets suggest Gill is likely to take the first set.

• Gill has an 89% first-set win conversion rate in his career, indicating he often starts strong.
• Dougaz's first-set win conversion is 85%, but his recent first-set performances include losses in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Gill's first-serve win percentage (66.9%) and second-serve win percentage (52%) are slightly better than Dougaz's (70.4% and 49.8%), but Dougaz's higher first-serve win rate is offset by a lower first-serve percentage (60.3% vs 63.2%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While neither player is a huge server, their combined ace rates and the possibility of a three-set match push the total aces over 7.5.

• Dougaz has a career ace rate of 7.5% and averages around 4-5 aces per match based on his serve stats.
• Gill has a career ace rate of 3.4% and averages around 2-3 aces per match.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a total of 6-8 aces on average, with potential for more in a close match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault rates of both players hover around 5.5, and match pressure could push the total over.

• Dougaz has a double fault rate of 5% and averages around 3-4 double faults per match.
• Gill has a double fault rate of 3.5% and averages around 2-3 double faults per match.
• In a potentially tight match, pressure could increase double faults, with combined averages already near 5.5.