AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #278Brazil0Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:40 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva · 145 places

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

Reis Da Silva, 26, is a Brazilian right-hander whose preferred surface is clay. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 187 in November 2025.

Current ranking: #278
Peak ranking: #187 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Mika Brunold's superior recent form, especially on clay, and stronger return game give him a clear edge over Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva.

Brunold is likely to win in straight sets, making the under 21.5 total games and Brunold -3.5 game handicap attractive bets. Reis Da Silva's four-match winning streak adds some risk, but Brunold's consistency should prevail.

Context

Brunold, 20, is ranked 410 and has a 59.1% career win rate. He has won 12 of his last 15 matches, all on clay, including a 6-0 6-2 win over world No. 188 Vitaliy Sachko in the semifinals.
Reis Da Silva has won only 7 of his last 14 clay matches and has lost to players ranked outside the top 250 in that span. Brunold's recent results include wins over higher-ranked opponents, suggesting he is in better form for this final.
- Brunold's last 15 overall record is 12-3 (80%), all on clay.
- Reis Da Silva's last 15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), with 14 of those matches on clay.
- Brunold beat No. 188 Sachko 6-0 6-2 in the semifinals; Reis Da Silva beat No. 235 Barrena 6-2 6-3.
Brunold's return points won percentage is 42.9% over his last 15 matches, all on clay. Reis Da Silva's is 36.9% over his last 14 clay matches.
The gap in return effectiveness suggests Brunold can pressure Reis Da Silva's serve more consistently. Reis Da Silva's lower return numbers may make it harder for him to break Brunold's serve.
- Brunold return points won: 42.9% (420/979) in last 15 matches.
- Reis Da Silva return points won: 36.9% (325/880) in last 14 clay matches.
Brunold, 20, is the qualifier in this Tulln final and has won five straight matches at the event.
He has played six matches in eight days, including two qualifying rounds, which adds workload before the final. The extra matches could affect his energy, but his strong recent form suggests he has managed the schedule well.
- Brunold beat Matthew William Donald in the qualifying final on 7 September.
- He is listed as a qualifier in the Tulln draw and reached the final for his first ATP Challenger title opportunity.
- Stored recent sample: 5 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z against Miguel Damas ended by retirement; the stored result was W.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/BucharestMika Brunold vs Matthew William Donald, Tulln qualifying finalwww.tennis.com · 7 Sep 2026
Reis Da Silva is ranked 282 and has a 54.9% career win rate. His recent losses include defeats to No. 382 Dimitar Kuzmanov, No. 270 Hynek Barton, and No. 264 Michele Ribecai.
Brunold is ranked 410, but his recent form suggests he is playing above that level. Reis Da Silva's losses to lower-ranked players indicate he may struggle against Brunold's current level.
- Reis Da Silva lost to No. 382 Kuzmanov 6-1 6-2 on July 21, 2026.
- Reis Da Silva lost to No. 270 Barton 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 on July 14, 2026.
- Reis Da Silva lost to No. 264 Ribecai 6-4 6-0 on June 18, 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Brunold's superior recent form, especially on clay, and stronger return game give him a clear edge over Reis Da Silva.
- Brunold last-15 record 12-3 (80%) vs Reis Da Silva 7-8 (46.7%)
- Brunold last-15 clay record 12-3, Reis Da Silva 7-7 on clay
- Brunold last-15 games won 60.5% vs Reis Da Silva 48.7%
- Brunold last-15 return points won 42.9% vs Reis Da Silva 35.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's dominant straight-set wins suggest a relatively short match, supporting under 21.5 total games.
- Brunold last-15 average games per match 19.9
- Reis Da Silva last-15 average games per match 21.1
- Brunold won 6 of last 7 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's superior game dominance suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Brunold last-15 average games won 12.1 vs Reis Da Silva 10.3
- Brunold last-15 games won 60.5% vs Reis Da Silva 48.7%
- Brunold won 6 of last 7 matches by 5+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMika Brunold -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Brunold's strong start tendency and higher first-set win rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Brunold won first set in 12 of last 15 matches (80%)
- Reis Da Silva first set win rate 53% in last 15
- Brunold first set conversion 86% career vs Reis Da Silva 83%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Brunold's recent dominance and Reis Da Silva's inconsistency make a straight-set victory likely.
- Brunold won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Reis Da Silva lost 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Brunold's last 5 wins all in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMika Brunold 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Brunold's straight-set trend supports under 2.5 total sets.
- Brunold won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Reis Da Silva lost 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Brunold's last 5 wins all in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's straight-set dominance reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Brunold won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets without tiebreak
- Reis Da Silva had tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches
- Brunold's last 5 wins all in straight sets without tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are just below the line, suggesting under 3.5.
- Reis Da Silva last-15 double faults per match 1.1
- Brunold last-15 double faults per match 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match 3.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are close to the line, with Reis Da Silva's higher ace count pushing the total over.
- Reis Da Silva last-15 aces per match 3.9
- Brunold last-15 aces per match 2.4
- Combined average aces per match 6.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mika Brunold has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Mika Brunold has fulfilled 7 of 11 recent win projections, a 64% success rate. The average estimated probability in those matches was 62.3%, with an expected 6.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual results are close to expectation. All four misses were losses, and the current 72% probability sits within the historical range of 55% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Mika Brunold11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#211Harold Mayot2-0#415Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#211Harold Mayot2-0#415Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

55%probability

Harold Mayot won

Missed

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#405Martina Trevisan2-0#141Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·78%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#405Martina Trevisan2-0#141Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

78%probability

Martina Trevisan won

Missed

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#188Joanna Garland0-2#173Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·62%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#188Joanna Garland0-2#173Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

62%probability

Mika Brunold won

Matched

7 Jun·WTA Foggia

#158Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#184Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·58%

Missed

7 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#158Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#184Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

58%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Foggia

#184Mika Brunold2-0#277Darya Astakhova

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·62%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#184Mika Brunold2-0#277Darya Astakhova

Mika Brunold to win

62%probability

Mika Brunold won

Matched

Previous match context available

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7W 8L

6-2 6-3#235Alex Barrena 7-6(4) 6-4#191Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-1 6-4#86Alex Molcan

6-2 7-5#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-3#145Tom Gentzsch

6-1 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#270Hynek Barton

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-4 6-0#264Michele Ribecai

7-5 6-0#263Martin Krumich

6-3 5-7 6-3#526Milos Karol

6-2 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-4#523Alexander Donski

7-6(12) 7-6(6)#190Diego Dedura

Mika Brunold

12W 3L

6-0 6-2#188Vitaliy Sachko 6-2 6-1#128Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#537Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#316Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoao Lucas Reis Da SilvaSilva

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.9%+2.3pp67.2%

1st Serve Won71.0%—70.9%

2nd Serve Won52.8%+1.5pp54.3%

Aces / Match3.9+1.52.4

Double Faults / Match1.11.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.9%+7.0pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.5%+1.1pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+10.0pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+3.8pp54.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.9%1st Serve In+2.3pp67.2%

71.0%1st Serve Won—70.9%

52.8%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp54.3%

3.9Aces / Match+1.52.4

1.1Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won+7.0pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

43.5%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp44.6%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+3.8pp54.1%

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Mika Brunold

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Mika Brunold

Stat Battle