Harold Mayot #200France22 – 0Mika Brunold #408Switzerland0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Brunold's recent clay form (9-6, 55.6% sets won) significantly outpaces Mayot's (1-4, 30.8% sets won) over a larger sample, and Brunold's superior break point conversion (49.5% vs. Mayot's 38.2% saved) gives him a structural edge on this surface.

• Brunold last15 on clay: 9-6 record, 55.6% sets won, 50.7% games won, 50.7% total points won (15 matches tracked).
• Mayot last15 on clay: 1-4 record, 30.8% sets won, 40.2% games won, 46.6% total points won (5 matches tracked).
• Brunold break point conversion last15 on clay: 49.5% (51/103); Mayot break point saved last15 on clay: 38.2% (13/34).
• Brunold has won 3 straight matches in Zug this week (qualifying + main draw), all on clay, dropping only 1 set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in competitive clay matches recently, with Brunold's last three all featuring at least 23 total games, and the H2H suggests a tight contest, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Brunold last15 on clay: average 114.9 minutes per match, 50.7% games won; Mayot last15 on clay: average 99.1 minutes, 40.2% games won.
• Brunold's last 3 matches in Zug: 12, 15, 19 games won; Mayot's last clay match: 14 games won in a 3-setter.
• H2H (2025 clay): Mayot won 6-3 6-4 (19 total games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Second sets in Brunold's recent matches have varied, and Mayot has shown he can extend sets (e.g., 6-4, 2-6), making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.

• Brunold last15 on clay: 55.6% sets won; Mayot last15 on clay: 30.8% sets won.
• Brunold's last 3 second sets: 6-0, 3-6, 7-6(4) (6, 9, 13 games).
• Mayot's last clay second set: 2-6 (8 games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Brunold's strong first-set conversion rate (85% career) and recent trend of winning opening sets on clay, combined with Mayot's poor clay form (30.8% sets won), point to Brunold taking the early lead.

• Brunold last15 on clay: 55.6% sets won; Mayot last15 on clay: 30.8% sets won.
• Brunold first set win conversion career: 85%; Mayot first set win conversion career: 89%.
• Brunold has won the first set in 3 of his last 4 matches (all on clay).