AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Vitaliy Sachko #188Ukraine0Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2

Sets 0-6 · 2-6Sat 12 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVitaliy Sachko · 235 places

Vitaliy Sachko

Ukraine

Sachko, 29, is right-handed and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 156 in July 2023. His current singles ranking is No. 188.

Current ranking: #188
Peak ranking: #156 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Mika Brunold's superior recent form and clay-court dominance make him the likely winner over Vitaliy Sachko.

Brunold's strong first-set record and current tournament momentum support a straight-set victory, but Sachko's competitiveness suggests the game handicap (+3.5) is a safer bet. The best value is Brunold to win at 1.65 with a small edge.

Context

Brunold, 20, is ranked 410 and has built his 2026 season on clay, winning 20 of 30 matches on the surface. Sachko, 29, is ranked 188 and has a career clay win percentage of 57%, but his recent clay results have been inconsistent.
Brunold's 73.3% win rate over the last 15 matches, all on clay, is backed by a 57.9% games-won percentage and a 65.2% break-point save rate. Sachko's clay record in the same window is 58.3%, with a lower games-won percentage of 53.1% and a break-point save rate of 56.8%. Brunold's superior recent clay numbers suggest he enters this semi-final with a clear form edge, though Sachko's higher ranking and experience could narrow the gap.
- Brunold last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), all on clay.
- Sachko last 15 clay record: 7-5 (58.3%).
- Brunold clay games won: 57.9% vs Sachko 53.1%.
- Brunold break points saved: 65.2% vs Sachko 56.8%.
Brunold is playing his fifth match in six days at the Tulln Challenger, with all wins coming on clay. His last three victories were in straight sets, including a dominant win over a top-130 opponent.
Brunold's current run shows he is in strong rhythm and managing the workload well, with an average match duration of 99.2 minutes over his last 15 matches. Sachko has also won three straight matches this week, but his wins came against lower-ranked opponents and included a three-setter. Brunold's fresher-looking scorelines and higher-quality quarter-final win give him a slight edge in current momentum.
- Brunold last 5 matches: W-W-W-W-W, all on clay.
- Brunold beat No. 128 Gustavo Heide 6-2 6-1 in the quarter-final.
- Sachko last 5 matches: W-W-W-L-W, with one three-set win.
- Brunold average match duration last 15: 99.2 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Brunold's superior recent form and clay-court dominance give him a clear edge over Sachko.
- Brunold last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Sachko 8-7 (53.3%)
- Brunold clay last 15 record 11-4 (73.3%), Sachko clay last 15 record 7-5 (58.3%)
- Brunold last 15 games won 57.9% vs Sachko 52.0%
- Brunold current tournament form: 5 straight wins, including 6-2 6-1 over #128 Heide
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sachko's competitiveness should keep the game margin within 3.5 games.
- Sachko last 15 games won percentage: 52.0%
- Brunold last 15 games won percentage: 57.9%
- Sachko has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostVitaliy Sachko +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Brunold's edge, Sachko's competitiveness and clay rallies should push total games over 21.5.
- Sachko last 15 average total games per match: 23.5
- Brunold last 15 average total games per match: 20.3
- Both players have competitive clay matches with multiple close sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players often extend beyond 9.5 games due to close competition.
- Sachko first set average games in last 15: 10.1
- Brunold first set average games in last 15: 9.3
- Both players have had multiple first sets with 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's strong starts and higher first-set win rate make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Brunold first set win rate in last 15: 11 of 15 matches (73.3%)
- Sachko first set win rate in last 15: 8 of 15 matches (53.3%)
- Brunold has won first set in all 5 matches this tournament
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sachko's higher ace count should push the combined total over 7.5 aces.
- Sachko last 15 aces per match: 5.6
- Brunold last 15 aces per match: 2.3
- Combined average aces per match: 7.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2 double faults per match, making Over 4.5 a coin-flip.
- Sachko last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Brunold last 15 double faults per match: 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Mika Brunold has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Mika Brunold has fulfilled 7 of 11 recent win projections, a 64% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 62.3%, with an expected 6.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual results closely tracked expectations. All four missed predictions ended in losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating that when Brunold fails to win, it is typically a straight defeat.

Recent evidence for Mika Brunold11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#211Harold Mayot2-0#415Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#211Harold Mayot2-0#415Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

55%probability

Harold Mayot won

Missed

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#405Martina Trevisan2-0#141Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·78%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#405Martina Trevisan2-0#141Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

78%probability

Martina Trevisan won

Missed

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#188Joanna Garland0-2#173Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·62%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#188Joanna Garland0-2#173Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

62%probability

Mika Brunold won

Matched

7 Jun·WTA Foggia

#158Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#184Mika Brunold

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·58%

Missed

7 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#158Leyre Romero Gormaz2-1#184Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold to win

58%probability

Leyre Romero Gormaz won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Foggia

#184Mika Brunold2-0#277Darya Astakhova

BetBugsMika Brunold to win·62%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#184Mika Brunold2-0#277Darya Astakhova

Mika Brunold to win

62%probability

Mika Brunold won

Matched

Previous match context available

Vitaliy Sachko

8W 7L

6-3 1-6 6-2#261Matias Soto

6-2 6-4#341Marko Topo

6-4 7-5#503Daniel Siniakov

6-2 4-6 7-6(11)#126Pablo Llamas Ruiz

7-5 7-5#158Gauthier Onclin

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#413Dylan Dietrich

5-7 6-1 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-4 7-6(4)#143Jurij Rodionov

7-6(5) 6-2#897Federico Coria

6-2 6-4#205Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-1#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 7-6(4)#117Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 6-3#98Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 6-2#366Petr Brunclik

Mika Brunold

11W 4L

6-2 6-1#128Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#537Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#316Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#267Harold Mayot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VSVitaliy SachkoSachko

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Vitaliy Sachko's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.8%+4.6pp67.4%

1st Serve Won66.4%+2.7pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+3.7pp54.9%

Aces / Match5.6+3.32.3

Double Faults / Match2.1—2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.6%—41.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.9%—43.4%

Break Pts Saved57.4%+7.8pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.1%+1.9pp53.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In+4.6pp67.4%

66.4%1st Serve Won+2.7pp69.1%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp54.9%

5.6Aces / Match+3.32.3

2.1Double Faults / Match—2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.6%Return Pts Won—41.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.9%Break Pts Converted—43.4%

57.4%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

51.1%Total Pts Won+1.9pp53.0%