SwitzerlandWTA MontreuxFinished

Predictions graded

Fiona Ferro #146France2Noma Akugue Noha #142Germany0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNoma Akugue Noha · 4 places

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Noma Akugue Noha

Germany

Twenty-two-year-old left-hander from Reinbek, Germany. Her Roland-Garros profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 137; the supplied current ranking is No. 142.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: #137
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferro's elite clay form and return game make her the favorite, but Noha Akugue's resilience and high double fault rate create value in overs.

The match winner odds are too short for Ferro, so look to totals and double faults for better angles.

Context

Ferro, 29, is a clay-court specialist with a career 56.5% win rate and 239 clay wins. Akugue Noha, 22, is a left-hander with a 58% career win rate and 136 clay wins.
Ferro's recent clay dominance is stronger, but Akugue Noha's 70% clay win rate in her last 10 matches shows she can compete. Ferro's superior return points won (52.6% vs 46.6%) may give her an edge in longer rallies.
- Ferro last 15 on clay: 13-1 record, 52.6% return points won.
- Akugue Noha last 10 on clay: 7-3 record, 46.6% return points won.
Ferro and Noma Akugue Noha meet in the WTA 125 Montreux final on clay.
This is the title match, so both players are competing for the championship with no further rounds to manage. The linked analysis sees Ferro's recent clay form and return game as giving her a clear edge, but that outlook is qualitative and not a settled fact.
- The singles draw places Ferro and Noha Akugue in the two final slots on the tournament's final day.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:33 · Europe/BucharestWTA Official — Montreux Nestlé Open 2026 Drawswww.wtatennis.com · 7 Sep 2026
Akugue Noha's first serve is effective, winning 60.3% of points on clay, but her second serve is vulnerable at 45.7%.
Ferro's strong return game (52.6% return points won on clay) could exploit Akugue Noha's second serve. If Akugue Noha can reduce double faults, she can keep pressure on Ferro's serve.
- Akugue Noha clay: 2.1 aces per match, 4.2 double faults per match.
- Ferro clay: 52.6% return points won.
The two players met once before, in the first round of a clay tournament in 2025.
Ferro's 4-6 7-6(9) 6-3 win shows she can handle Akugue Noha's left-handed game on clay. However, that match was over a year ago, and Akugue Noha has improved since then.
- 2025-04-29: Ferro def. Akugue Noha 4-6 7-6(9) 6-3 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.35fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's dominant recent clay form and superior return game give her a clear edge over Noha Akugue, who has been less consistent.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Fiona Ferro

1.40fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's strong recent form and clay dominance make her likely to take the opening set, but the odds are slightly short relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Ferro's dominant recent clay form and superior return game give her a clear edge over Noha Akugue, who has been less consistent.
- Ferro last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), clay 13-1 (92.9%)
- Ferro return points won 51.5% overall, 52.6% on clay
- Noha Akugue last 15 overall 9-6 (60%), clay 7-3 (70%)
- H2H: Ferro won their only meeting 4-6 7-6(9) 6-3 on clay in 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown ability to extend matches, and Noha Akugue's longer average duration suggests a competitive contest.
- Ferro average match duration 97.8 minutes, Noha Akugue 123.3 minutes
- Noha Akugue has played several three-setters recently
- H2H match went to three sets with 32 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Ferro's strong start tendency and overall form make her likely to take the opening set.
- Ferro first set win conversion 84% career
- Ferro last 15 sets won 79.4%
- Noha Akugue first set win conversion 87% career but recent form weaker
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Noha Akugue's tendency to push matches to deciding sets increases the chance of a three-setter.
- Noha Akugue has played 7 three-setters in last 15 matches
- Ferro has played 4 three-setters in last 15
- H2H went to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Noha Akugue's high double fault rate makes the over on total double faults likely.
- Ferro averages 1.7 double faults per match overall, 1.5 on clay
- Noha Akugue averages 4.2 double faults per match overall, 4.2 on clay
- Combined average double faults per match ~5.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Noha Akugue's higher ace rate could push the total over 4.5, though Ferro's low ace count tempers this.
- Ferro averages 0.9 aces per match overall, 0.8 on clay
- Noha Akugue averages 2.5 aces per match overall, 2.1 on clay
- Combined average aces per match ~3.4, but Noha Akugue's serve can produce more
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Fiona Ferro has been highly reliable when projected to win

Fiona Ferro has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent win projections, a strong 83% fulfilment rate. Her average estimated probability in those matches was 65.2%, with an expected 3.9 wins, so she outperformed expectation. The only miss came against Aurora Zantedeschi, where she lost despite a 62% probability.

Recent evidence for Fiona Ferro6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

Fiona Ferro to win

65%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 7-6(9) 6-3Fiona Ferro#141vNoma Akugue Noha#137Apr 29, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Fiona Ferro

13W 2L

6-1 2-6 6-0#157Dalma Galfi 6-4 6-0#226Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#200Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-4#205Mona Barthel

2-6 6-3 7-5#416Clara Burel

6-4 6-2#324Francesca Pace

6-4 6-3#378Diletta Cherubini

6-2 2-6 6-1#296Aurora Zantedeschi

6-2 6-1#651Astrid Cirotte

6-1 6-4#422Rebecca Marino

5-7 7-5 6-4#200Barbora Palicova

7-5 6-2#304Eva Bennemann

6-1 6-4#337Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-4#267Noemi Basiletti

6-1 6-3#448Sapfo Sakellaridi

Noma Akugue Noha

9W 6L

7-6(2) 6-3#210Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-1 7-6(7)#194Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-5 6-3#317Alina Granwehr

5-7 6-2 6-4#482Denisa Zoldakova

1-6 6-4 7-5#208Anna Siskova

3-6 7-6(6) 7-5#316Weronika Falkowska

6-2 6-3#185Julia Avdeeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#73Anna Bondar

6-3 2-6 6-2#427Valentina Steiner

6-3 6-1#104Francesca Jones

5-7 6-2 6-3#227Darya Astakhova

6-1 7-5#247Alice Rame

7-5 2-6 6-2#235Irene Burillo

6-4 5-7 7-5#214Katherine Sebov

7-6(2) 6-3#130Lisa Pigato

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FFFiona FerroFerro

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Noma Akugue NohaNohaNN

Fiona Ferro carries the stronger recent form — Noma Akugue Noha's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.8%+11.1pp60.7%

1st Serve Won60.8%+2.6pp63.4%

2nd Serve Won46.8%+1.7pp45.1%

Aces / Match0.9+1.62.5

Double Faults / Match1.72.5 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.5%+6.3pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.5%+1.8pp50.7%

Break Pts Saved55.9%+2.0pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.2%+3.2pp51.0%

Serve · 3–2

71.8%1st Serve In+11.1pp60.7%

60.8%1st Serve Won+2.6pp63.4%

46.8%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp45.1%

0.9Aces / Match+1.62.5

1.7Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

51.5%Return Pts Won+6.3pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

52.5%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp50.7%

55.9%Break Pts Saved+2.0pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won+3.2pp51.0%