SwitzerlandWTA MontreuxFinished

Predictions graded

Dalma Galfi #156Hungary1Fiona Ferro #146France2

Sets 1-6 · 6-2 · 0-6Sat 12 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Ferro · 10 places

Dalma Galfi

Hungary

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 79 on 12 September 2022. In 2025 she won WTA 125 titles in Oeiras and Vic and recorded a Top-20 win at Wimbledon.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #79 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Fiona Ferro's dominant clay form and superior return game make her a strong favorite over Dalma Galfi.

Back Ferro to win and consider Ferro 2-0 and under 21.5 total games as value bets.

Context

Ferro, 29, is a clay-court specialist with 238 career wins on the surface and a current ranking of 141. Galfi, 28, has a more balanced surface record but has struggled for consistency in 2026.
Ferro's recent clay numbers are clearly better: she has won 85.7% of her last 14 clay matches and 61% of games, while Galfi has won 55.6% of her last 9 clay matches and 51.5% of games. Ferro also returns better on clay, winning 51.5% of return points compared to Galfi's 45.8%. This suggests Ferro should control baseline rallies and create more break chances.
- Ferro's last 15 overall record is 12-3 (80%), with 12 of those wins on clay.
- Ferro's clay record in last 15 is 12-2 (85.7%), winning 61% of games.
- Galfi's clay record in last 15 is 5-4 (55.6%), winning 51.5% of games.
- Ferro's clay return points won is 51.5% vs Galfi's 45.8%.
Galfi is ranked 157 and has been competing mainly at Challenger level this season. Ferro is ranked 141 and has a long history of success on clay.
Galfi's recent wins are less impressive when considering opponent quality: she beat Simona Waltert (ranked 89), Nuria Brancaccio (189), and Valentina Ryser (263). Ferro's wins in the same tournament came against Lucie Havlickova (226), Barbora Palicova (200), and Mona Barthel (205), but her overall clay sample includes stronger performances. This suggests Galfi's current run may not translate against a more consistent clay player like Ferro.
- Galfi's last three wins: vs Waltert (89), Brancaccio (189), Ryser (263).
- Ferro's last three wins: vs Havlickova (226), Palicova (200), Barthel (205).
- Ferro's clay record in last 15 is 12-2, while Galfi's is 5-4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ferro's dominant recent clay form and superior return/break profile give her a clear edge over Galfi in this semi-final.
- Ferro last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Galfi 6-9 (40%)
- Ferro clay last 14 record 12-2 (85.7%), Galfi clay last 9 record 5-4 (55.6%)
- Ferro return points won 50.5% overall / 51.5% clay; Galfi 41.5% overall / 45.8% clay
- Ferro break point conversion 52.9% overall / 53% clay; Galfi 44.1% overall / 45% clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Ferro's efficient straight-set wins and Galfi's inconsistent form point to a relatively short match.
- Ferro average games per match last 15: 20.6 (309 games / 15 matches)
- Galfi average games per match last 15: 22.3 (334 games / 15 matches)
- Ferro won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets, often with lopsided scores
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's efficient first sets often stay under 10 games, making under 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Ferro average first set games last 15: 9.2
- Galfi average first set games last 15: 9.8
- Ferro won first set 6-4 or better in 8 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's superior game-winning percentage on clay suggests she can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Ferro average games won per match last 15: 12.2
- Galfi average games won per match last 15: 10.6
- Ferro clay games won 61%, Galfi clay games won 51.5%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFiona Ferro -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Ferro's strong recent first-set record and overall form make her likely to take the opener.
- Ferro won first set in 12 of last 15 matches (80%)
- Galfi won first set in 6 of last 15 matches (40%)
- Ferro first set win conversion career 84%, Galfi 85%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Ferro's dominance in straight sets on clay and Galfi's vulnerability suggest a 2-0 victory is the most likely scoreline.
- Ferro won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Galfi lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Ferro clay sets won 81.3% (26/32), Galfi clay sets won 55% (11/20)
BetBugs · Set BettinglostFiona Ferro 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ferro's straight-set dominance on clay makes a two-set match more likely than three.
- Ferro won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Galfi lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Ferro clay sets won 81.3%, Galfi clay sets won 55%
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, especially Ferro, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Ferro aces per match last 15: 0.9
- Galfi aces per match last 15: 4.2
- Combined average aces per match: 5.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, but the combined average is close to the line, favoring under.
- Ferro double faults per match last 15: 1.7
- Galfi double faults per match last 15: 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's ability to close sets without tiebreaks and Galfi's inconsistent form reduce the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Ferro played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches
- Galfi played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches
- Ferro's straight-set wins often avoid tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Fiona Ferro has been highly reliable when projected to win

Fiona Ferro has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent win projections. Her average estimated probability was 65.2%, with an expected 3.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating she has outperformed expectations. The only miss came against Aurora Zantedeschi, while all other projections were successful.

Recent evidence for Fiona Ferro6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

Fiona Ferro to win

65%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

Previous match context available

Dalma Galfi

6W 9L

6-2 6-2#89Simona Waltert

4-6 6-1 7-6(6)#189Nuria Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#263Valentina Ryser

7-6(5) 6-3#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-2 6-2#123Ella Seidel

6-2 6-0#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 7-6(4)#233Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

7-6(5) 6-3#232Francisca Jorge

6-3 7-6(4)#164Suzan Lamens

6-4 6-4#170Elizabeth Mandlik

7-6(6) 6-7(2) 7-5#126Emerson Jones

7-5 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

5-7 6-2 6-4#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(2) 6-4#112Julia Grabher

6-4 6-1#79Alycia Parks

Fiona Ferro

12W 3L

6-4 6-0#226Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#200Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-4#205Mona Barthel

2-6 6-3 7-5#416Clara Burel

6-4 6-2#324Francesca Pace

6-4 6-3#378Diletta Cherubini

6-2 2-6 6-1#296Aurora Zantedeschi

6-2 6-1#651Astrid Cirotte

6-1 6-4#422Rebecca Marino

5-7 7-5 6-4#200Barbora Palicova

7-5 6-2#304Eva Bennemann

6-1 6-4#337Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-4#267Noemi Basiletti

6-1 6-3#448Sapfo Sakellaridi

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#104Francesca Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DGDalma GalfiGalfi

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Fiona FerroFerroFF

Fiona Ferro carries the stronger recent form — Dalma Galfi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.1%+8.7pp71.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1561.9%+2.0pp59.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1543.4%+2.0pp45.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.2+3.30.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.11.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.5%+9.0pp50.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.1%+8.8pp52.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1551.3%+5.3pp56.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.2%+5.0pp53.2%

Serve · 2–3

63.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.7pp71.8%

61.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp59.9%

43.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp45.4%

4.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.30.9

3.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+9.0pp50.5%

Pressure · 0–2

44.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.8pp52.9%

51.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.3pp56.6%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.0pp53.2%

Dalma Galfi

Fiona Ferro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Fiona Ferro

Fiona Ferro

Under 21.5

Fiona Ferro 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Dalma Galfi

Fiona Ferro

Stat Battle