TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Basing #248United Kingdom2Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Fri 11 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Basing · 20 places

Max Basing

United Kingdom

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing information was thin. Use the structured form and match-stat sections as the main context.

Current ranking: #248
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas is the favorite with better form and hard-court stats, but the odds are too short at 1.36.

The best betting angles are over 21.5 total games and over 7.5 total aces, as the match is expected to be competitive.

Context

Butvilas, 21, is ranked 195 and has built a 21-9 hard-court record in 2026, including wins over players ranked inside the top 200.
Butvilas's recent hard-court results are more consistent than Basing's, with a 76.9% win rate on the surface in his last 13 matches compared to Basing's 53.8%. Butvilas has also beaten higher-ranked opponents such as Remy Bertola and Michael Mmoh, while Basing's wins have come mostly against players ranked outside the top 300. This suggests Butvilas may have an edge in baseline rallies and point construction on this surface.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court record: 10-3 (76.9% win rate).
- Basing last 15 hard-court record: 7-6 (53.8% win rate).
- Butvilas recent wins include Remy Bertola (rank 174) and Michael Mmoh (rank 173).
- Basing recent wins include Mert Alkaya (rank 300) and Atakan Karahan (unranked).
Butvilas is a 191 cm right-hander with a powerful first serve, and his career first-serve win rate is 71%.
Butvilas's serve gives him more free points and can keep him out of long rallies, especially on hard courts. Basing's lower ace count and first-serve win rate of 71.4% suggest he relies more on rallying and consistency. If Butvilas serves well, he could control the tempo and put pressure on Basing's service games.
- Butvilas hard-court aces per match: 6.3 (82 aces in 13 matches).
- Basing hard-court aces per match: 1.2 (15 aces in 13 matches).
- Butvilas first-serve points won on hard courts: 73.5%.
- Basing first-serve points won on hard courts: 71.4%.
Basing, 24, is ranked 259 and has played a heavy schedule of Challenger events in recent weeks.
Basing's retirement against Antoine Ghibaudo on August 7 is a concern, and his subsequent results have been inconsistent: he lost to Charles Broom and Lucas Poullain but also won two matches in Istanbul this week. If the injury is still affecting him, it could limit his movement or endurance in a best-of-three match against a strong opponent like Butvilas.
- Basing retired against Antoine Ghibaudo on 2026-08-07 with score 6-2 ret.
- After the retirement, Basing lost to Charles Broom (6-4 6-2) and Lucas Poullain (6-0 7-6(5)).
- Basing has won two matches in Istanbul this week, suggesting he is able to compete.
- No current injury news is available, so the retirement may not be a major issue now.
Edas Butvilas, ATP No. 195, is the away player in this Istanbul match.
Butvilas played a 1-hour-52-minute doubles match in Istanbul on 7 September, adding extra court time before this singles contest. The additional workload is modest and unlikely to affect his performance.
- Butvilas and Francesco Maestrelli won 7-5, 6-7(6), [10-8] against Atakan Karahan and Tuncay Duran.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z against Sebastian Ofner ended by retirement; the stored result was W.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/BucharestButvilas su porininku išgyveno trilerį prieš korto šeimininkuswww.sportas.lt · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Edas Butvilas

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas has stronger recent form and hard-court results, with a clear edge in return points won and ranking.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Butvilas has stronger recent form and hard-court results, with a clear edge in return points won and ranking.
- Butvilas last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Basing 8-7 (53.3%)
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court record 10-3 (76.9%) vs Basing 7-6 (53.8%)
- Butvilas last 15 return points won 40.6% vs Basing 38.7%
- Butvilas ranking 195 vs Basing 259
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21 games, and their competitive styles suggest a longer contest.
- Basing last 15 average games per match 21.1 (317 games / 15 matches)
- Butvilas last 15 average games per match 25.2 (378 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve at a similar rate.
- Basing last 15 first-set average games 9.5 (estimated from 164 games won and 153 lost)
- Butvilas last 15 first-set average games 10.1 (estimated from 208 games won and 170 lost)
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to be closely contested, with neither player likely to dominate.
- Basing last 15 second-set average games 9.8 (estimated)
- Butvilas last 15 second-set average games 10.3 (estimated)
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's superior hard-court serve and recent momentum give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Butvilas last 15 first-set win rate implied by 10-5 record and 59% sets won
- Butvilas hard-court first-serve points won 73.5% vs Basing 71.4%
- Butvilas has won 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's high ace count alone nearly covers the line, and Basing adds a small contribution.
- Butvilas last 15 aces per match 6.5
- Basing last 15 aces per match 1.3
- Combined expected aces around 7.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak experience make a tiebreak likely.
- Basing career tiebreak win percentage 68%
- Butvilas career tiebreak win percentage 52%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault rate is close to the line, making the over a marginal call.
- Basing last 15 double faults per match 3.3
- Butvilas last 15 double faults per match 2.1
- Combined expected double faults 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Max Basing

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#300Mert Alkaya 6-1 6-0—Atakan Karahan 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#237Charles Broom

7-6(3) 0-6 6-4#542Alec Deckers

6-3 6-4#473Christian Langmo

6-0 7-6(5)#343Lucas Poullain

6-2 ret.#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-3 6-1#355Tiago Pereira

7-6(5) 6-1#384Lucio Ratti

0-6 7-6(7) 6-2#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-3 6-1#569Sidharth Rawat

3-6 6-3 6-4#506Dominik Palan

7-5 6-2#227Henry Searle

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#214Felix Gill

Edas Butvilas

10W 5L

7-6(1) 6-1#472Miguel Tobon 7-5 6-2#625Gabriel Ghetu 4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#488Luca Potenza 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#174Remy Bertola 2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#125Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMax BasingBasing

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Max Basing's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.6%+3.9pp61.7%

1st Serve Won70.9%+2.4pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+1.2pp51.8%

Aces / Match1.3+5.26.5

Double Faults / Match3.31.2 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.7%+1.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.0%+17.0pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved56.3%+9.0pp47.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.1%+1.7pp52.8%

Serve · 1–4

65.6%1st Serve In+3.9pp61.7%

70.9%1st Serve Won+2.4pp73.3%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp51.8%

1.3Aces / Match+5.26.5

3.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

38.7%Return Pts Won+1.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

33.0%Break Pts Converted+17.0pp50.0%

56.3%Break Pts Saved+9.0pp47.3%

Points · 0–1

51.1%Total Pts Won+1.7pp52.8%