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Predictions graded

Gabriel Ghetu #625Romania0Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2

Sets 5-7 · 2-6Tue 8 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEdas Butvilas · 357 places

Gabriel Ghetu

Romania

Ghetu, 18, is right-handed and listed at 180 cm. His listed career high is No. 586, reached in May 2026.

Current ranking: #625
Peak ranking: #586 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas is the clear favorite due to his superior ranking, hard-court form, and serve.

Expect a competitive match with potential for three sets, and lean over on total aces.

Context

Butvilas, 21, is ranked 195 and has a 19-9 hard-court record in 2026. Ghetu, 20, is ranked 625 and has played mostly clay this season.
Butvilas's recent hard-court sample is much larger and more successful, with wins over players ranked inside the top 200. Ghetu's two hard-court wins came against lower-ranked opponents, so this surface may favor Butvilas.
- Butvilas last 15 on hard: 8-3 record, 72.7% win rate.
- Ghetu last 15 on hard: 2-0 record, but only 2 matches tracked.
- Butvilas beat Remy Bertola (rank 174) and Michael Mmoh (rank 173) on hard in August.
Ghetu has a 12-0 hard-court record in 2026, but that sample is from lower-level events and not reflected in his recent 15-match window.
The surface switch from clay to hard could be a factor, as Ghetu's recent form is built almost entirely on clay. His two hard-court wins came against opponents ranked outside the top 800, so the step up in competition may test him.
- Ghetu last 15: 13 matches on clay, 2 on hard.
- Ghetu's hard-court wins were over Alibek Kachmazov (rank 822) and Kaya Arinc (unranked).
- Butvilas has played 11 of his last 15 on hard.
Butvilas is 191 cm tall and has a strong first serve, winning 73.3% of first-serve points in his last 15 matches.
On hard courts, Butvilas's serve is a major advantage. Ghetu's lower ace count and 63.3% first-serve points won suggest he may struggle to hold serve as easily against a more aggressive returner.
- Butvilas last 15: 7.2 aces per match, 73.3% first-serve points won.
- Ghetu last 15: 1.5 aces per match, 63.3% first-serve points won.
- Butvilas's first-serve percentage is 60.6%, slightly lower than Ghetu's 68.2%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has a clear ranking and surface-fit edge on hard courts, with stronger recent hard-court form and serve profile.
- Butvilas ranking 195 vs Ghetu 625
- Butvilas last15 hard record 8-3 (72.7%), Ghetu hard last15 2-0 but only 2 matches
- Butvilas career hard wins 82 vs Ghetu 20
- Butvilas last15 aces per match 7.2 vs Ghetu 1.5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and Butvilas's hard-court matches frequently extend beyond straight sets.
- Butvilas last15 average duration 111.4 minutes
- Ghetu last15 average duration 119 minutes
- Butvilas last15 hard matches often go to deciding sets (4 of 11)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive first sets, and Butvilas's serve can keep games close.
- Butvilas last15 hard first set average games 9.8
- Ghetu last15 hard first set average games 9.5
- Butvilas tiebreak win rate 51% career
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's strong first serve and overall edge make him slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Butvilas first set win conversion 81% career
- Ghetu first set win conversion 88% career
- Butvilas last15 hard first serve points won 73.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's high ace rate alone should push the total over 7.5, with Ghetu contributing a few.
- Butvilas last15 aces per match 7.2
- Ghetu last15 aces per match 1.5
- Butvilas career aces 1143 in 273 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2 double faults per match, making over 4.5 a coin flip.
- Butvilas last15 double faults per match 2.2
- Ghetu last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Combined average 4.3, close to line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Gabriel Ghetu

12W 3L

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#822Alibek Kachmazov 6-1 6-1—Kaya Arinc

6-2 6-3#766Radu David Turcanu

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#857Anas Mazdrashki

6-4 6-4#594Stefan Adrian Andreescu

7-6(4) 6-3#859Giannicola Misasi

6-0 3-0 ret.#1203Valentin Vanta

6-2 6-3—Vlad Cristian Breazu

6-1 6-2#878Iannis Miletich

3-6 6-2 6-2—Matteo Sciahbasi

6-1 6-0—Rares Andrei Golescu

6-4 6-4#859Giannicola Misasi

7-5 ret.—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-4 6-3—Vito Dell'Elba

4-6 6-3 6-2—Filippo Francesco Garbero

Edas Butvilas

8W 7L

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#488Luca Potenza 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#174Remy Bertola 2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#125Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#226Moez Echargui

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GGGabriel GhetuGhetu

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Gabriel Ghetu carries the stronger recent form — Edas Butvilas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.2%+7.6pp60.6%

1st Serve Won63.3%+10.0pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won50.8%+1.5pp49.3%

Aces / Match1.5+5.77.2

Double Faults / Match2.1—2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.2%+9.3pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.8%+3.5pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved64.3%+20.7pp43.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.9%+2.6pp51.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

68.2%1st Serve In+7.6pp60.6%

63.3%1st Serve Won+10.0pp73.3%

50.8%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp49.3%

1.5Aces / Match+5.77.2

2.1Double Faults / Match—2.2

Return · 1–0

48.2%Return Pts Won+9.3pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

50.8%Break Pts Converted+3.5pp47.3%

64.3%Break Pts Saved+20.7pp43.6%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won+2.6pp51.3%