SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania1Luca Potenza #484Italy2

Sets 6-4 · 5-7 · 6-7Fri 4 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEdas Butvilas · 216 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Luca Potenza

Italy

Italian right-hander, born 28 July 2000, with a career-best ATP ranking of No. 357 reached on 20 October 2025. ATP lists Paolo Moretti as his coach; no verified active injury or comeback report was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #484
Peak ranking: #357 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas has the ranking and recent hard-court edge, but Potenza's H2H win and solid form make the favorite's odds of 1.18 poor value.

Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 total aces.

Context

Butvilas, 21, is ranked 195 and has built his recent success on hard courts, where he has won 8 of his last 10 matches.
Potenza has also been solid on hard courts with 5 wins in 7, but Butvilas's larger sample and higher win rate suggest he is more comfortable in these conditions. However, Potenza's recent wins include a straight-set victory over a top-200 opponent, so the gap is not overwhelming.
- Butvilas last 15 on hard: 8-2 record, 55.9% games won.
- Potenza last 15 on hard: 5-2 record, 54.9% games won.
- Butvilas has won 4 of his last 5 matches overall, all on hard courts.
Potenza, ATP No. 488, has played four singles matches in four days to reach this quarter-final: two qualifying wins on 31 August and 1 September, then main-draw wins on 2 and 3 September.
That workload can affect late-match energy and recovery, especially in a best-of-three quarter-final. Butvilas has had a lighter schedule this week, which may give him a physical edge if the match extends.
- Potenza qualified for the main draw and won his next two Mallorca singles matches.
- The 4 September match is the tournament quarter-final.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 22:22 · Europe/BucharestLRT: Butvilas reached the Rafa Nadal Open quarter-finalwww.lrt.lt · 3 Sep 2026
Potenza, 24, is ranked 488 but has been competing well against higher-ranked players in this tournament.
His straight-set win over world No. 171 Joel Schwaerzler and a three-set victory over No. 192 David Jorda Sanchis show he can handle tougher opposition. Butvilas's recent wins have come against players ranked between 125 and 427, with only one top-150 win, so Potenza's form may be more battle-tested.
- Potenza beat No. 171 Schwaerzler 6-2 6-2 and No. 192 Jorda Sanchis 7-5 2-6 7-5 in his last two matches.
- Butvilas's last three wins were against No. 174 Bertola, No. 125 Ofner (retired), and No. 173 Mmoh.
- Potenza's only recent loss on hard was to No. 542 Deckers, showing some inconsistency.
The two players met once before, on hard court in 2025, and Potenza won comfortably.
That result may give Potenza confidence, but it was nearly a year ago and both players have evolved since. Butvilas has improved his hard-court results significantly, so the previous meeting may not be a reliable indicator.
- H2H: Potenza won 6-1 6-4 on 2025-10-02.
- Potenza had a 46% return points won in that match, while Butvilas had only 23%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Edas Butvilas

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas has a stronger recent hard-court profile and ranking edge, but the odds heavily favor him beyond the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Edas Butvilas

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas's stronger serve and return numbers on hard courts give him a slight edge to start the match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Butvilas has a stronger recent hard-court profile and ranking edge, though Potenza's current Mallorca run and H2H win keep this at medium confidence.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court record: 8-2 (80%) with 55.9% games won and 52.7% total points won.
- Potenza last-15 hard-court record: 5-2 (71.4%) with 54.9% games won and 51.2% total points won.
- Butvilas ranking 195 vs Potenza 488; Butvilas has beaten higher-ranked opponents in recent hard-court matches.
- H2H: Potenza won their only meeting 6-1 6-4 on hard in Oct 2025, but Butvilas has improved since.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a higher total games line.
- Butvilas last-15 average match duration: 109.4 minutes; Potenza: 120.4 minutes.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court average games per match: 25.4; Potenza: 23.4.
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches in recent hard-court events.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been competitive, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.8; Potenza: 9.6.
- Both players have been involved in tiebreaks and close first sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Butvilas's stronger serve and return numbers on hard courts give him a slight edge to start the match.
- Butvilas first-set win conversion career: 82%; Potenza: 88%.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court first-serve points won: 73.8%; Potenza: 68.0%.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court return points won: 40.5%; Potenza: 39.1%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's ace rate and Potenza's moderate ace count support over 8.5 total aces.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court aces per match: 6.4; Potenza: 3.7.
- Combined expected aces: 10.1 per match.
- Butvilas has a strong first serve and has hit 11 aces in a previous match against Potenza.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency to play tiebreaks, increasing the likelihood of at least one in this match.
- Butvilas career tiebreak win percentage: 52%; Potenza: 59%.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent hard-court matches.
- Potenza's last match included two tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is close to the line, making over 5.5 a coin flip.
- Butvilas last-15 hard-court double faults per match: 2.7; Potenza: 3.3.
- Combined expected double faults: 6.0 per match.
- Potenza has a higher double fault rate, especially under pressure.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-1 6-4Edas Butvilas#195vLuca Potenza#488Oct 2, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

8W 7L

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#174Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#125Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#226Moez Echargui

3-6 6-4 6-4#354Cruz Hewitt

Luca Potenza

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#171Joel Schwaerzler 7-5 2-6 7-5#192David Jorda Sanchis 6-3 6-3#296Carl Emil Overbeck

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#378Daniel Masur

7-6(6) 6-3#542Alec Deckers

4-6 6-3 7-5#729Aryan Shah

7-5 6-1#649Samuel Heredia

6-3 1-6 7-5#588Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-4 3-6 6-4#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-2 7-6(7)#443Matthew William Donald

6-4 7-5#170Elmer Moller

6-4 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

6-1 6-3—Matei Varbanciu

6-3 6-4#563Fausto Tabacco

7-6(5) 2-6 6-4#637Giovanni Oradini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Luca PotenzaPotenzaLP

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Luca Potenza's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.4%+2.3pp58.1%

1st Serve Won73.3%+5.8pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won49.3%—50.0%

Aces / Match6.4+3.72.7

Double Faults / Match2.51.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.7%+1.7pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.2%+8.0pp39.2%

Break Pts Saved47.6%+11.6pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+0.8pp50.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

60.4%1st Serve In+2.3pp58.1%

73.3%1st Serve Won+5.8pp67.5%

49.3%2nd Serve Won—50.0%

6.4Aces / Match+3.72.7

2.5Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

38.7%Return Pts Won+1.7pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

47.2%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp39.2%

47.6%Break Pts Saved+11.6pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.4%