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Predictions graded

Miguel Tobon #499Colombia0Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEdas Butvilas · 231 places

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #499
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas is the clear favorite with better form, ranking, and serve stats, but his low break point save rate and Tobon's occasional upsets add risk.

Betting value is limited on the match winner, but over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 aces are reasonable angles.

Context

Butvilas, 20, is ranked 195 and has built his recent success on hard courts, with a 75% win rate in his last 12 matches on the surface.
Tobon has been less consistent on hard courts, winning 44% of his last 9 matches there. Butvilas also holds a clear ranking advantage and has beaten several players ranked inside the top 200 during this stretch, which suggests he can handle this level of opposition.
- Butvilas last 15 hard-court record: 9-3 (75%)
- Tobon last 15 hard-court record: 4-5 (44.4%)
- Butvilas recent hard-court wins include opponents ranked 157, 167, 173, 174, 182, and 184
Tobon, 24, is ranked 472 but has been competing well recently, with wins over players ranked 379 and 588 in his last five matches.
His recent results show he can compete with higher-ranked opponents, and he enters this match with momentum. However, his overall last-15 record is still below .500, and his hard-court numbers are modest, so this run may not fully close the gap against Butvilas.
- Tobon last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 loss
- Wins over Ficovich (379), Fellin (588), Kirci (896), and Claverie (884)
- Only loss in that span was to Pacheco Mendez (272)
Butvilas has been active on the Challenger circuit, with a deep run in Lexington and a quarterfinal in Istanbul last week.
The volume of matches and long three-setters could affect his freshness, especially against a rested Tobon who has played only five matches in the same period. However, Butvilas is young and has shown he can recover quickly, so the impact is uncertain.
- Butvilas has played 12 matches since August 4
- Several matches went to three sets, including wins over Sakamoto and Ilagan
- Tobon has played only 5 matches in the same period

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Edas Butvilas

1.27fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 78.7%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas has a clear edge in recent form, surface-specific performance, and ranking, making him the likely winner.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Edas Butvilas

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas's stronger serve and recent hard-court form should give him the edge in the opening set.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

The likelihood of a straight-set victory for Butvilas makes under 2.5 sets a reasonable prediction, but the edge is marginal.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Edas Butvilas 2-0

1.73fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Butvilas's superior hard-court record and serve stats support a straight-set win, but the model estimate is below the implied probability, indicating no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.27
The read
Butvilas has a clear edge in recent form, surface-specific performance, and ranking, making him the likely winner.
- Butvilas last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Tobon 6-9 (40%)
- Butvilas last 15 hard record 9-3 (75%) vs Tobon 4-5 (44%)
- Butvilas ranking 195 vs Tobon 472
- Butvilas last 15 first serve points won 72.9% vs Tobon 68.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match suggests a moderately long match, supporting over 21.5 games.
- Butvilas last 15 average games per match 25.1 (376/15)
- Tobon last 15 average games per match 23.1 (346/15)
- Both players have competitive sets with tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' serve stats and recent competitive first sets make over 9.5 games in set 1 plausible.
- Butvilas recent hard matches often feature close first sets (e.g., 7-5, 7-6)
- Tobon's last 15 first serve points won 68.7% indicates ability to hold serve
- Both players have first serve percentages around 60%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's edge in games won percentage on hard courts supports a handicap of -3.5 games.
- Butvilas last 15 games won percentage 53.5% vs Tobon 50.3%
- Butvilas hard court games won percentage 55.7% vs Tobon 51.8%
- Butvilas has won several matches by comfortable margins recently
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEdas Butvilas -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Butvilas's stronger serve and recent hard-court form should give him the edge in the opening set.
- Butvilas last 15 hard first set win rate implied by 75% match win rate
- Tobon last 15 first set win rate lower at 44% hard record
- Butvilas first serve points won 72.9% overall last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The likelihood of a straight-set victory for Butvilas makes under 2.5 sets a reasonable prediction.
- Butvilas has won 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Tobon has lost 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Butvilas's strong serve and return stats favor a two-set win
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's high ace rate combined with Tobon's moderate ace count supports over 8.5 total aces.
- Butvilas last 15 aces per match 6.7
- Tobon last 15 aces per match 3.1
- Combined average aces per match 9.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak history make a tiebreak likely.
- Butvilas has played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches (e.g., 7-6(6), 7-6(5))
- Tobon has also had tiebreaks in recent matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages slightly exceed the line, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Tobon last 15 double faults per match 3.8
- Butvilas last 15 double faults per match 2.2
- Combined average double faults per match 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Miguel Tobon

6W 9L

6-3 6-3#896Koray Kirci

6-2 6-4#272Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-1#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-2 6-1#588Pietro Orlando Fellin

7-6(4) 6-2#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#884Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#179Bernard Tomic

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(2)#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#355Tiago Pereira

6-2 6-2#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 4-6 6-4#263Martin Krumich

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#683Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-2#866Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-2#623Alexander Vasilev

6-3 ret.#734Peter Fajta

Edas Butvilas

9W 6L

7-5 6-2#625Gabriel Ghetu 4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#488Luca Potenza 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#174Remy Bertola 2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#125Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#173Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#167Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#157Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Miguel Tobon's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In59.6%+1.0pp60.6%

1st Serve Won68.7%+4.2pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+3.7pp50.0%

Aces / Match3.1+3.66.7

Double Faults / Match3.81.6 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.5%+3.3pp39.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted56.7%+8.5pp48.2%

Break Pts Saved64.1%+19.4pp44.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.6pp51.8%

Serve · 1–4

59.6%1st Serve In+1.0pp60.6%

68.7%1st Serve Won+4.2pp72.9%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp50.0%

3.1Aces / Match+3.66.7

3.8Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won+3.3pp39.8%

Pressure · 2–0

56.7%Break Pts Converted+8.5pp48.2%

64.1%Break Pts Saved+19.4pp44.7%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.8%