TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Miguel Tobon #499Colombia2Koray Kirci #896Türkiye0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 8 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMiguel Tobon · 397 places

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #499
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Koray Kirci

Türkiye

Kirci, 28, is right-handed and 185 cm. Hard is listed as his preferred surface; his career-high singles ranking was No. 616 in October 2022.

Current ranking: #896
Peak ranking: #616 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Tobon's ranking and recent form give him a clear edge over Kirci, especially on serve and return.

However, the odds on Tobon are heavily juiced, offering no value. The match is likely to be competitive in games but Tobon should win, possibly in straight sets.

Context

Kirci, 28, is ranked 896 and has a career win rate of 43.6%.
His last four matches were losses, including retirements in February and January, and he has not competed since July 28. That long gap and poor recent results suggest he may struggle to find rhythm against Tobon.
- Kirci lost his last four matches, with two retirements (Feb 11 and Jan 27).
- His most recent match was a 6-3 6-1 loss to Manas Manoj Dhamne on July 28.
- He has not played since that July 28 match.
Tobon, 24, is ranked 472 and has a career win rate of 46%.
He has been consistently competing, with recent wins over Juan Pablo Ficovich and Pietro Orlando Fellin. His activity and match toughness could give him an edge over the inactive Kirci.
- Tobon has played 15 matches in the last 15 weeks, winning 5.
- He won two matches in his last tournament (Aug 25-26) before losing to Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez.
- His last 15 matches include wins over players ranked 379 and 588.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Miguel Tobon

1.08fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Tobon has a clear ranking and recent form edge over Kirci, who has struggled against similar-level opponents.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Tobon has a clear ranking and recent form edge over Kirci, who has struggled against similar-level opponents.
- Tobon ranking 472 vs Kirci 896
- Tobon last15 overall record 5-10, Kirci 6-9 but Kirci's wins mostly vs lower-ranked opponents
- Tobon last15 hard record 3-5, Kirci 14 hard matches 6-8 but with retirements and weak opposition
- Tobon recent form includes wins over Ficovich (379) and Fellin (588), Kirci lost to Dhamne (381) and Dinev (800)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMiguel TobonEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Tobon's edge, Kirci's competitiveness in some matches and Tobon's tendency for longer matches suggest a moderate total.
- Tobon last15 average games per match 23.1, Kirci 19.6
- Tobon hard court matches average 25.8 games, Kirci hard 20.1
- Both players have had close three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set could be competitive given both players' similar first-set game counts.
- Tobon last15 first set average 9.7 games, Kirci 9.3
- Tobon hard first set average 10.1, Kirci hard 9.4
- Both players have played tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's stronger serve and return stats in recent matches give him an edge in the opening set.
- Tobon first set win conversion career 80%, Kirci 84% but Kirci's recent first sets often lost
- Tobon last15 first serve points won 68.9%, Kirci 62.3%
- Tobon last15 break points converted 54.8%, Kirci 44.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMiguel TobonEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's 3.8 double faults per match alone pushes the combined total near the line.
- Tobon last15 double faults per match 3.8, Kirci 1.2
- Combined average double faults per match 5.0
- Tobon's high double fault rate is a key factor
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 aces per match, making over 5.5 a near coin flip.
- Tobon last15 aces per match 3.0, Kirci 2.9
- Combined average aces per match 5.9
- Tobon hard aces per match 3.3, Kirci hard 3.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Miguel Tobon

5W 10L

6-2 6-4#272Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-1#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-2 6-1#588Pietro Orlando Fellin

7-6(4) 6-2#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#884Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#179Bernard Tomic

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(2)#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#355Tiago Pereira

6-2 6-2#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 4-6 6-4#263Martin Krumich

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#683Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-2#866Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-2#623Alexander Vasilev

6-3 ret.#734Peter Fajta

6-2 6-4#333Enrico Dalla Valle

Koray Kirci

6W 9L

6-3 6-1#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-2 3-1 ret.—Felix Raser

6-4 6-2#800Dinko Dinev

6-1 4-1 ret.#466Khumoun Sultanov

6-0 6-3#680Timofei Derepasko

7-6(6) 3-0 ret.#527Fabrizio Andaloro

6-3 6-7(1) 6-1#612Mukund Sasikumar

6-3 6-3#853Kris Van Wyk

5-7 6-4 6-3#745Michal Krajci

7-6(4) 5-7 7-6(3)#612Mukund Sasikumar

6-4 6-4—Jan Hrazdil

7-5 7-5#488Luca Potenza

6-2 6-2#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-3 6-2—Ethan Terblanche

6-0 6-0—Sparsh Rathi Rathi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Koray KirciKirciKK

Miguel Tobon carries the stronger recent form — Koray Kirci's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.4%+10.5pp69.9%

1st Serve Won68.9%+6.6pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won52.8%+4.1pp48.7%

Aces / Match3.0—2.9

Double Faults / Match3.82.6 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.2%+4.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted54.8%+10.2pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+6.7pp55.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.5%+0.8pp48.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.4%1st Serve In+10.5pp69.9%

68.9%1st Serve Won+6.6pp62.3%

52.8%2nd Serve Won+4.1pp48.7%

3.0Aces / Match—2.9

3.8Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

35.2%Return Pts Won+4.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

54.8%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp44.6%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+6.7pp55.1%

Points · 1–0

49.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp48.7%