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Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Akira Santillan #331Australia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 8 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 171 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Akira Santillan

Australia

Santillan, 29, reached a career-high No. 144 in November 2017. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: #144 · 2017
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic's superior hard-court form and ranking make him the likely winner, but Santillan's H2H win and competitive recent matches suggest a close contest.

Betting value is in over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, while Tomic at 1.30 offers negative edge.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former world No. 17 and has rebuilt his ranking to No. 179 with consistent Challenger results.
Tomic's recent hard-court record is 10-4, including wins over Karen Khachanov and Mark Lajal, while Santillan has lost four of his last five on hard courts, including defeats to players ranked outside the top 350. This form gap suggests Tomic should control the baseline exchanges, though Santillan's one-handed backhand can be dangerous when he is confident.
- Tomic's last 14 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 4 losses (71.4% win rate).
- Santillan's last 11 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5% win rate).
- Santillan's last five hard-court results: L, W, L, L, L.
Santillan, 29, has a one-handed backhand and relies on aggressive shot-making, but his serve can be erratic under pressure.
Santillan's double fault rate is 4.1 per match, and he wins only 50.1% of second-serve points, which gives Tomic opportunities to attack. Tomic's return points won is 37.5%, so he can pressure Santillan's second serve and create break chances.
- Santillan's last 15 matches: 61 double faults, 4.1 per match.
- Santillan's second-serve points won: 50.1%.
- Tomic's return points won: 37.5%.
The two Australians have met once before, at a Challenger event in 2024.
Santillan won 6-3, 7-6(4) in that match, but both players' form and rankings have changed significantly since then. The result is a minor psychological edge for Santillan, but it is unlikely to override Tomic's current hard-court form.
- 2024-01-15: Santillan def. Tomic 6-3, 7-6(4) on hard court.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a clear edge, though Santillan's H2H win adds some uncertainty.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Tomic's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a clear edge, though Santillan's H2H win adds some uncertainty.
- Tomic last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 64.7% sets won, 53.2% games won
- Santillan last 15 on hard: 6-5 record, 48.1% sets won, 48.3% games won
- Tomic ranking 179 vs Santillan 331; Tomic has stronger recent wins vs top-150 opponents
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchups and both players' tendency to play three sets support a higher total games line.
- Tomic last 15 hard average 22.9 games per match
- Santillan last 15 hard average 21.3 games per match
- Both players have high deciding-set rates: Tomic 57%, Santillan 50% career
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players tend to be close, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Tomic last 15 hard first set average 9.8 games
- Santillan last 15 hard first set average 9.5 games
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, indicating competitive openers
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are likely to be competitive, with a slight lean to over 9.5 games.
- Tomic last 15 hard second set average 9.6 games
- Santillan last 15 hard second set average 9.2 games
- Both players often split sets, leading to longer second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's stronger serve and recent fast starts make him the likely first-set winner.
- Tomic first set win conversion career 85%, Santillan 86%
- Tomic last 15 hard first serve points won 74.1% vs Santillan 67.8%
- Tomic has won first set in 8 of last 10 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently play three-set matches, making over 2.5 sets a solid lean.
- Tomic last 15 hard: 43% of matches went three sets
- Santillan last 15 hard: 45% of matches went three sets
- H2H match was straight sets but close (7-6 second set)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's strong ace count and Santillan's moderate serving suggest a combined total above 8.5 aces.
- Tomic last 15 hard aces per match 6.3
- Santillan last 15 hard aces per match 3.6
- Combined average 9.9 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2.5-3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 a coin-flip with slight lean over.
- Tomic last 15 hard double faults per match 2.4
- Santillan last 15 hard double faults per match 3.1
- Combined average 5.5 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic has been reliable when projected to win

Bernard Tomic has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions. His average estimated probability was 67.4%, with an expected 4.7 wins, so he slightly outperformed expectation. The current 62% probability is within his historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 7-6(4)Bernard Tomic#179vAkira Santillan#331Jan 15, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(3)#486Kasidit Samrej 6-4 3-6 6-4#398Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#139Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#344Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#35Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#50Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#472Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#182Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#152Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#451Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#770Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#246James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#245Darwin Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-2#93Adam Walton

Akira Santillan

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 6-1#393Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-3#408Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#528Sanhui Shin

6-4 6-1#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 1-6 6-4#557Digvijaypratap Singh

6-2 6-2#300Mert Alkaya

2-6 6-2 6-3#287Alastair Gray

6-3 6-4#151Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-3 4-1 ret.#243Hugo Grenier

3-6 6-1 6-2—Alejandro Lopez Escribano

7-6(2) 6-3#203Luka Pavlovic

4-6 6-1 6-1#444Denis Yevseyev

6-3 6-3—Alejandro Mateo Berge Nourescu

6-4 6-3#230Cezar Cretu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Akira SantillanSantillanAS

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Akira Santillan's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.8%—62.5%

1st Serve Won73.6%+4.2pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won50.5%—50.1%

Aces / Match6.0+2.53.5

Double Faults / Match2.61.5 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.5%+1.2pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.6%+5.3pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+0.8pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.1%+1.7pp49.4%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

62.8%1st Serve In—62.5%

73.6%1st Serve Won+4.2pp69.4%

50.5%2nd Serve Won—50.1%

6.0Aces / Match+2.53.5

2.6Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

37.5%Return Pts Won+1.2pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

41.6%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp46.9%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

51.1%Total Pts Won+1.7pp49.4%