FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Hugo Grenier #258France0Billy Harris #167United Kingdom2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 15:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 91 places

Hugo Grenier

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 95 in September 2022. His documented 2026 results are materially stronger on hard courts than clay or grass.

Current ranking: #258
Peak ranking: #95 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Billy Harris is a slight favorite over Hugo Grenier based on superior recent form and a head-to-head win on hard court.

Harris's stronger serve and break point saving give him the edge, but Grenier's historical advantage and Harris's shaky hard-court form add risk. The best betting angle is Harris to win at 1.73, with over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak also likely.

Context

Harris, ranked 161, has a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Grenier, with both wins coming on hard courts.
The most recent meeting was just five days ago, and Harris won in straight sets. That result suggests he has a current tactical or confidence edge, though Grenier won their two previous hard-court matches in 2023.
- On 2026-09-01, Harris defeated Grenier 6-2 7-6(3) in the same tournament.
- Harris leads the overall head-to-head 2-1, with all matches on hard courts.
Grenier, ranked 243, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand who has historically preferred hard courts.
In his last 11 hard-court matches, Grenier has won only 36.4% and his first-serve points won is 69.6%, down from his career average. He also retired in one match, raising a minor fitness question.
- Last 15 hard-court record: 4-7 (36.4% win rate).
- First-serve points won on hard: 69.6% vs career 71%.
- Retired in a hard-court match on 2026-07-16.
Harris, ranked 161, has a stronger career record on grass than hard courts.
Harris's recent hard-court form is mixed: he won only 37.5% of his last 8 matches on the surface. However, his win over Grenier five days ago suggests he can still perform in this matchup.
- Last 8 hard-court matches: 3-5 (37.5% win rate).
- Beat Grenier 6-2 7-6(3) on hard court on 2026-09-01.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Harris's superior recent form and head-to-head win on this surface give him the edge, supported by stronger serve resilience.
- Billy Harris won their most recent meeting 6-2 7-6(3) on hard court on 2026-09-01.
- Harris has a 53.3% win rate in his last 15 matches overall, while Grenier has only 26.7%.
- Harris's last-15 break point save rate is 64.6% vs Grenier's 52.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBilly HarrisEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of their recent matches and both players' tendency to play close sets suggest a match with over 21.5 total games.
- Their last meeting had 21 games (6-2 7-6), and the previous two meetings had 19 and 23 games.
- Grenier's last-15 average match duration is 99.1 minutes, Harris's is 117.3 minutes.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 45-51% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be closely contested given both players' comparable return and second-serve stats, making over 9.5 games probable.
- The second set in their last meeting went to a tiebreak (7-6).
- Grenier's second serve points won is 47.5%, Harris's is 52.1%, suggesting competitive service games.
- Both players have similar return points won percentages around 37-39%.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While the last first set was one-sided, both players' serve stats and break point struggles could lead to a tighter opening set with more games.
- In their last meeting, the first set had 8 games (6-2), but the second set went to a tiebreak.
- Grenier's last-15 first serve in is 57.3%, Harris's is 60.7%, indicating potential for longer games.
- Both players have break point conversion rates around 34-39% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harris's recent form and head-to-head advantage suggest he could cover a -1.5 game handicap, but the margin is not overwhelming.
- Harris won their last meeting by 5 games (13-8).
- Harris's last-15 games won percentage is 50.8%, Grenier's is 44.7%.
- Harris's break point save rate is significantly higher than Grenier's.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBilly Harris -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's stronger first-serve performance and recent first-set dominance against Grenier support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Harris won the first set 6-2 in their last meeting on 2026-09-01.
- Harris's first set win conversion rate is 86% career, compared to Grenier's 83%.
- Harris's last-15 first serve points won is 71% vs Grenier's 67.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBilly HarrisEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of their matches and similar tiebreak statistics make a tiebreak likely.
- Their last meeting included a tiebreak in the second set.
- Grenier's career tiebreak win percentage is 51%, Harris's is 49%.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total around 10-11, making over 10.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Grenier averages 5.1 aces per match in his last 15, Harris averages 5.8.
- Combined average aces per match is approximately 10.9.
- On hard courts, Grenier averages 6.4 aces, Harris averages 3.6.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages suggest a total around 7-8, making over 6.5 a reasonable but not strong prediction.
- Grenier averages 4.1 double faults per match in his last 15, Harris averages 3.3.
- Combined average double faults per match is approximately 7.4.
- On hard courts, Grenier averages 4.4 double faults, Harris averages 3.6.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Billy Harris has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Billy Harris has fulfilled 5 of 9 recent win predictions, a 56% success rate. His average estimated probability was 59.7%, with an expected 5.4 wins, so he has slightly underperformed. All four misses were losses, and his current 58% probability sits within his historical range of 55-62%.

Recent evidence for Billy Harris9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·58%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

58%probability

Abedallah Shelbayh won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·60%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

60%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

17 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

L6-2 7-6(3)Hugo Grenier#243vBilly Harris#161Sep 1, 2026

W6-3 6-4Hugo Grenier#243vBilly Harris#161Oct 6, 2023

W3-6 6-1 7-6(3)Hugo Grenier#243vBilly Harris#161Mar 26, 2023

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Hugo Grenier

4W 11L

6-2 7-6(3)#161Billy Harris

7-5 7-6(2)#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#99Roman Safiullin

6-4 6-1#340Mees Rottgering

6-4 6-1#650Neil Oberleitner

6-3 3-6 7-5#342Dali Blanch

6-3 4-1 ret.#331Akira Santillan

6-4 6-1#453Cyril Vandermeersch

2-6 7-5 3-0 ret.—Matthias Uwe Kask

6-3 6-3#591Paul Inchauspe

6-2 3-6 6-4—Tristan Berard

6-3 6-3#72Jaime Faria

7-6(5) 7-5—Oliver Okonkwo

6-1 6-2#40Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-3#241Luca Nardi

Billy Harris

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#252Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#243Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#110Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#50Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#248Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-2#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#109Otto Virtanen

7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-4#87Arthur Gea

7-5 3-6 6-1#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HGHugo GrenierGrenier

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Billy HarrisHarrisBH

Billy Harris carries the stronger recent form — Hugo Grenier's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1557.3%+3.4pp60.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.7%+3.3pp71.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1547.5%+4.6pp52.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.1+0.75.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.10.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.6%+1.7pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1533.7%+0.8pp34.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1552.1%+12.5pp64.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.4%+1.6pp50.0%

Serve · 0–5

57.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp60.7%

67.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp71.0%

47.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.6pp52.1%

5.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.75.8

4.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

38.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

33.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp34.5%

52.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+12.5pp64.6%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp50.0%