ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ilia Simakin #269Russia2Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5441

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-3Sat 5 Sept 2026, 03:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlia Simakin · 275 places

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Simakin holds a 2-0 H2H edge and superior hard-court form, making him the likely winner, but odds of 1.25 offer no value.

The first-set market is also overpriced, so the best angle is over 10.5 total aces given Simakin's serving strength. Expect a competitive match with potential for extended sets.

Context

Simakin, ranked 275, has a strong hard-court record and has already beaten Leong twice this year.
The head-to-head gives Simakin a clear psychological and tactical edge, especially on this surface. Leong has not found an answer in two attempts, and the most recent meeting went to a deciding tiebreak, suggesting the gap may be narrowing.
- Simakin won 4-6 6-2 7-6(10) on 2026-02-24.
- Simakin won 6-4 6-3 on 2026-01-15.
- Both matches were on hard courts.
Leong, ranked No. 551, reached this semi-final after winning two qualifying matches and three main-draw matches in Zhangjiagang.
He has played five matches in this event, including a retirement win on 4 September, which adds workload before facing Simakin. That extra court time could affect his freshness, though his recent form suggests he is handling the schedule well.
- Leong won the two Zhangjiagang qualifying rounds on 30 and 31 August.
- He then reached the semi-final after three main-draw matches.
- Stored recent sample: 5 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-04T06:00:00.000Z against James Kent Trotter ended by retirement; the stored result was W.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 15:05 · Europe/BucharestTennis.com — Palán vs Leong, Zhangjiagang qualifyingwww.tennis.com · 31 Aug 2026Canal Tenis — Zhangjiagang Challenger 2026 drawcanaltenis.com · 1 Sep 2026
Simakin's recent hard-court record is 7-1, with wins over players ranked inside the top 300.
Simakin's hard-court form is slightly better, and his wins have come against higher-ranked opponents. Leong's 9-3 record is solid but includes several wins over unranked or lower-ranked players, so the quality of opposition favors Simakin.
- Simakin's last 8 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 1 loss.
- Leong's last 12 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 3 losses.
- Simakin's wins include opponents ranked 293, 303, 323, 356, 393, 444, 500.
- Leong's wins include opponents ranked 288, 464, 483, 506, 635, 823, and two unranked players.
Leong's return points won percentage is 42.9% over his last 15 matches, compared to Simakin's 38.6%.
Leong's superior return game could be a factor, especially if Simakin's first-serve percentage dips. However, Simakin's strong first-serve points won (72.2%) may mitigate this advantage.
- Leong's return points won: 42.9% (420/978) in last 15 matches.
- Simakin's return points won: 38.6% (478/1237) in last 15 matches.
- Simakin's first-serve points won: 72.2% (510/706) in last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ilia Simakin

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Simakin's superior hard-court form and perfect H2H record give him the edge, though Leong's recent run and qualifying momentum keep this from being a high-confidence pick.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ilia Simakin

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Simakin's H2H first-set success and strong career first-set conversion support a first-set win, but the odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Simakin's superior hard-court form and perfect H2H record give him the edge, though Leong's recent run and qualifying momentum keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
- Simakin leads H2H 2-0, both on hard courts in 2026.
- Simakin's last 15 hard-court record: 7-1 (87.5%), with 78.9% sets won.
- Leong's last 15 hard-court record: 9-3 (75%), but his two losses to Simakin this year are a direct negative signal.
- Simakin's career hard-court win percentage is 65.8% vs Leong's 55% overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match and strong serving under pressure point to a match that could exceed 21.5 games, though the low confidence reflects the variability of Bo3 matches.
- Simakin's last 15 hard-court matches average 22.4 games per match (195 games / 8 matches).
- Leong's last 15 hard-court matches average 20.3 games per match (243 games / 12 matches).
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Simakin 69%, Leong 66.7% on hard), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' solid serving and return stats, making over 9.5 games a reasonable but not strong bet.
- Simakin's recent hard-court sets average 9.8 games per set (195 games / 20 sets).
- Leong's recent hard-court sets average 9.3 games per set (243 games / 26 sets).
- Both H2H first sets went to 10 games (6-4 and 4-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to be closely contested, but the probability is near even due to the potential for a lopsided set if one player gains momentum.
- Simakin's second sets on hard courts have averaged 9.6 games per set.
- Leong's second sets on hard courts have averaged 9.1 games per set.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Simakin's tendency to start strong and his H2H first-set success support a first-set win, though Leong's recent form makes it a moderate probability.
- Simakin won the first set in both H2H matches (6-4 and 4-6).
- Simakin's first-set win conversion is 91% career, indicating strong starts.
- Leong's first-set win conversion is 88%, but he lost the first set in both H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's high ace count and Leong's moderate ace production make over 10.5 total aces likely, especially if the match goes to three sets.
- Simakin averages 8.1 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Leong averages 3.8 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average aces per match: 11.9, above the 10.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar double fault rates, and the combined average slightly exceeds the line, but the margin is thin, warranting low confidence.
- Simakin averages 2.8 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Leong averages 2.9 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.7, just above the 5.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Ilia Simakin has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Ilia Simakin has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections, a 50% success rate. His average estimated probability was 61.8%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly underperformed. Both misses came as losses, and his current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 58–65%.

Recent evidence for Ilia Simakin4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jun·Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#568Maxime Janvier

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#568Maxime Janvier

Ilia Simakin to win

62%probability

Ilia Simakin won

Matched

28 Jun·Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#731Radu David Turcanu

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·65%

Matched

28 Jun 2026

Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#731Radu David Turcanu

Ilia Simakin to win

65%probability

Ilia Simakin won

Matched

22 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#299Ilia Simakin1-2#358Marko Topo

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#299Ilia Simakin1-2#358Marko Topo

Ilia Simakin to win

62%probability

Marko Topo won

Missed

12 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#245Ilia Simakin1-2#437Laurent Lokoli

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·58%

Missed

12 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#245Ilia Simakin1-2#437Laurent Lokoli

Ilia Simakin to win

58%probability

Laurent Lokoli won

Missed

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W4-6 6-2 7-6(10)Ilia Simakin#275vMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#551Feb 24, 2026

W6-4 6-3Ilia Simakin#275vMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#551Jan 15, 2026

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ilia Simakin

10W 5L

7-6(5) 6-4#393Ilya Ivashka 7-5 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova 6-1 6-2#444Denis Yevseyev

5-7 6-2 6-3#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#303Florent Bax

6-3 7-6(4)#323Fajing Sun

5-7 6-3 6-4#500Adrian Boitan

7-5 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#144Tomas Barrios Vera

3-6 6-4 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#572Maxime Janvier

4-6 6-1 6-2#766Radu David Turcanu

6-4 4-6 6-2#341Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#388Jacopo Vasami

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

10W 5L

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#464James Kent Trotter 6-3 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#281Dan Added

3-6 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-2#823Arda Azkara

7-6(4) 6-3#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-3 6-1#1743Alberto Lim

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIlia SimakinSimakin

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeongML

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Ilia Simakin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.6%+2.8pp63.4%

1st Serve Won72.2%+1.9pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won54.7%+6.7pp48.0%

Aces / Match7.0+3.23.8

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.6%+4.3pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.7%+21.7pp57.4%

Break Pts Saved61.1%+3.4pp64.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.1pp52.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.6%1st Serve In+2.8pp63.4%

72.2%1st Serve Won+1.9pp70.3%

54.7%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp48.0%

7.0Aces / Match+3.23.8

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.1

Return · 0–1

38.6%Return Pts Won+4.3pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

35.7%Break Pts Converted+21.7pp57.4%

61.1%Break Pts Saved+3.4pp64.5%

Points · 0–1

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.1pp52.7%