ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaRET

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442James Kent Trotter #458Japan1

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 4-0Fri 4 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJames Kent Trotter · 86 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

James Kent Trotter

Japan

Trotter, 27, is right-handed and 183 cm. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 21 April 2025.

Current ranking: #458
Peak ranking: #170 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong's superior return game and recent hard-court form give him a slight edge, with value on him to win at 2.60 odds.

The match is expected to be close, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set also offering value.

Context

Leong, ranked 551, is a right-hander who has built his career on hard courts, with 130 of his 142 career wins coming on that surface.
Leong's 72.7% hard-court win rate over his last 11 matches is stronger than Trotter's 64.3% over 14. Leong also converts break points at a higher rate (58.8% vs 44.3%), which could be decisive in a best-of-three set match.
- Leong's last 11 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 3 losses (72.7% win rate).
- Trotter's last 14 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 5 losses (64.3% win rate).
- Leong's break point conversion on hard courts: 58.8% vs Trotter's 44.3%.
Trotter, ranked 464, is a right-hander with a powerful serve that has produced 1955 career aces.
Trotter's ace count and first-serve points won are superior to Leong's, but his lower first-serve percentage means he often starts points on his second serve, where Leong's return game can apply pressure. Leong's return points won on hard courts is 44.5%, higher than Trotter's 37.4%.
- Trotter's hard-court aces per match: 6.6 vs Leong's 3.4.
- Trotter's first-serve points won: 73.3% vs Leong's 71.8%.
- Trotter's first-serve percentage: 58.9% vs Leong's 61.7%.
- Leong's return points won on hard courts: 44.5% vs Trotter's 37.4%.
Both players are competing in the Zhangjiagang Challenger quarter-final on hard court.
Leong's wins over Bar Biryukov (ranked 288) and Palan (506) demonstrate his ability to handle higher-ranked opponents. Trotter's wins over Hsu (268) and Cui (454) are equally impressive, so both enter with confidence, but Leong's run has been slightly more dominant in terms of games won.
- Leong's last three matches: 6-3 6-2 vs Matsuda, 7-6(3) 6-3 vs Bar Biryukov, 6-1 6-4 vs Palan.
- Trotter's last two matches: 6-4 7-5 vs Hsu, 6-3 6-4 vs Cui.
- Leong's games won percentage in those matches: 59.4% vs Trotter's 53.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Leong's stronger recent hard-court form and superior return/break conversion give him a slight edge in this Bo3 quarter-final.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: 8-3 (72.7%) vs 9-5 (64.3%)
- Last 15 return points won: 42.5% vs 37.3%
- Last 15 break points converted: 55.9% vs 42.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average near or above 21.5 total games, and their competitive profiles suggest a close contest.
- Leong last 15 average games per match: 20.4
- Trotter last 15 average games per match: 23.5
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players exceed 9.5, indicating a likely competitive opening set.
- Leong last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.8
- Trotter last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 10.1
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's high career first-set conversion and recent hard-court serve effectiveness support a narrow first-set edge.
- Leong first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Leong last 15 hard-court first-serve points won: 71.8%
- Trotter last 15 hard-court first-serve points won: 73.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's high ace rate and Leong's moderate ace output combine to make over 8.5 total aces likely.
- Leong last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Trotter last 15 aces per match: 6.4
- Combined expected aces: 9.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Leong last 15 double faults per match: 3.2
- Trotter last 15 double faults per match: 3.1
- Combined expected double faults: 6.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions. The only miss came against Dominik Palan, where he lost despite a 58% estimated probability. His current 55% probability is within his historical range of 55-62%, and his average estimated probability of 58.6% has produced an 80% fulfilment rate, exceeding the expected 2.9 wins.

Recent evidence for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Dominik Palan won

Missed

19 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

62%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·60%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

60%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·55%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

55%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#281Dan Added

3-6 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-2#823Arda Azkara

7-6(4) 6-3#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-3 6-1#1743Alberto Lim

6-3 7-6(5)#851Shintaro Imai

James Kent Trotter

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#268Yu Hsiou Hsu 6-3 6-4#454Jie Cui

3-6 6-1 6-3#330Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#255Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

6-1 6-2#185Clement Chidekh

6-1 6-0#539Kokoro Isomura

6-3 6-4#599Guillaume Dalmasso

1-6 6-3 6-3#218Liam Draxl

0-6 7-6(7) 6-4#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-3 7-5—Jared Horwood

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-3#438Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(7) 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-1 6-7(14) 6-3#899Ronit Karki

6-4 2-6 7-5—Ilyas Milad Fahim

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

James Kent TrotterTrotterJT

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — James Kent Trotter's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.8%+3.7pp59.1%

1st Serve Won71.5%+1.7pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won47.4%+7.7pp55.1%

Aces / Match3.3+3.16.4

Double Faults / Match3.2—3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+5.2pp37.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted55.9%+13.4pp42.5%

Break Pts Saved63.7%+7.2pp56.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.2pp51.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In+3.7pp59.1%

71.5%1st Serve Won+1.7pp73.2%

47.4%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp55.1%

3.3Aces / Match+3.16.4

3.2Double Faults / Match—3.1

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+5.2pp37.3%

Pressure · 2–0

55.9%Break Pts Converted+13.4pp42.5%

63.7%Break Pts Saved+7.2pp56.5%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.2pp51.5%