ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaRET

Predictions graded

Weiyi Kong #1656China0Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5441

Sets 0-6Sun 30 Aug 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMitsuki Wei Kang Leong · 1112 places

Weiyi Kong

China

Kong, 18, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded match volume has been on hard and indoor hard courts.

Current ranking: #1656
Peak ranking: #1509
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong is a heavy favorite due to superior form, ranking, and serve stats.

Kong's poor recent record and weak serve make an upset unlikely. Best betting angle is under 21.5 total games, but Leong's odds offer no value.

Context

Leong, ranked 543, has a career win percentage of 54.1% and has been more consistent recently, winning 8 of his last 15 matches.
Kong has won only 4 of his last 15 matches and is unranked, making Leong the clear form favorite. However, Leong's recent losses have come against players ranked around 300-600, suggesting he can be vulnerable against stronger opposition, but Kong's level is lower.
- Leong's last 15 record: 8-7 (53.3% win rate).
- Kong's last 15 record: 4-11 (26.7% win rate).
- Leong's current ranking: 543; Kong has no ranking.
Kong has retired in two of his last five matches, most recently on August 27 against Joshua Charlton after losing the first set 0-1.
This pattern of retirements suggests Kong may be struggling with fitness or injury, which could affect his ability to compete at full intensity. If he is not fully fit, Leong could capitalize on a weakened opponent.
- Retired on 2026-08-27 vs Joshua Charlton (score 1-0 ret.).
- Retired on 2026-05-28 vs Tianhui Zhang (score 6-1 4-1 ret.).
- Retired on 2026-05-13 vs Yan Cheng Chen (score 6-4 4-6 5-0 ret.).
Leong's serve has been a weapon recently, winning 70.3% of first-serve points, while Kong has won only 59.5%.
Leong also wins more return points (40.1% vs 38.6%), giving him an edge in both serving and returning. This statistical advantage suggests Leong can control rallies and put pressure on Kong's serve.
- Leong first-serve points won: 70.3% (last 15 matches).
- Kong first-serve points won: 59.5% (last 15 matches).
- Leong return points won: 40.1%; Kong: 38.6%.
This is a first-round qualifying match in Zhangjiagang, with Leong seeded eighth and Kong entering as a wildcard. The winner must win one more qualifying round to reach the main draw.
- The draw places both players in the first qualifying round, with a second qualifying round required to reach the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 22:03 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Zhangjiagang qualifying drawwww.atptour.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.05fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Leong has a clear edge in recent form, ranking, and serve performance, making him the strong favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.05fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Leong's superior serve and first-set conversion rate should give him the early lead.

Set 2 Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.05fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Leong's better return and break point conversion should allow him to close out the match in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Leong has a clear edge in recent form, ranking, and serve performance, making him the strong favorite.
- Leong last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Kong 4-11 (26.7%)
- Leong career win% 54.1% vs Kong 45.8%
- Leong ranking 543 vs Kong unranked
- Leong last15 first serve points won 70.3% vs Kong 59.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's dominance suggests a relatively quick match with fewer total games.
- Leong last15 average games per match 22.8, Kong 20.3
- Leong last15 games won 52.3%, Kong 43.6%
- Leong has won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's strong serve and return could lead to a one-sided first set.
- Leong last15 first serve points won 70.3%
- Kong last15 first serve points won 59.5%
- Leong last15 break point conversion 52.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's ability to convert break points may keep the second set short.
- Leong last15 second serve points won 45% vs Kong 46%
- Kong last15 break points saved 55.7%
- Leong last15 break points converted 52.6%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Leong's superior serve and first-set conversion rate should give him the early lead.
- Leong first set win conversion 88% career vs Kong 80%
- Leong last15 first serve points won 70.3%
- Kong last15 first serve points won only 59.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Leong's better return and break point conversion should allow him to close out the match in straight sets.
- Leong last15 break point conversion 52.6% vs Kong 34.2%
- Leong last15 return points won 40.1% vs Kong 38.6%
- Kong last15 record only 26.7%
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's superior form makes a straight-sets victory likely.
- Leong last15 sets won 51.4%, Kong 35.3%
- Leong has won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Kong has lost 9 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's overall edge should allow him to win in straight sets.
- Leong last15 record 8-7, Kong 4-11
- Leong last15 first serve points won 70.3%
- Kong last15 first serve points won 59.5%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMitsuki Wei Kang Leong 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's straight-sets tendency reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Leong last15 tiebreak win% 40% career
- Kong last15 tiebreak win% 38% career
- Leong has won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's ace rate combined with Kong's modest ace count could push the total over 5.5.
- Leong last15 aces per match 3.7
- Kong last15 aces per match 1.6
- Combined average aces per match 5.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average nearly 4 double faults per match, making over 7.5 plausible.
- Leong last15 double faults per match 3.9
- Kong last15 double faults per match 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match 7.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kong's recent form and serve metrics are significantly weaker than Leong's, making the longshot price a trap.

Weiyi Kong

4W 11L

1-0 ret.#746Joshua Charlton

6-4 6-4—Alex Jones

6-3 6-1#544Fitriadi M Rifqi

7-5 3-6 6-3#850Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul

6-3 6-2#822Taiyo Yamanaka

6-4 6-0—Antreas Djakouris

6-1 4-1 ret.#857Tianhui Zhang

7-5 6-1—Unknown Player

6-4 4-6 5-0 ret.—Yan Cheng Chen

7-6(4) 6-1—Ashton Mcleod

6-3 7-6(7)—Xinyuan Xie

6-1 6-4—Yaoyu Yang

4-6 6-0 6-4#502Dominik Palan

6-4 1-6 11-9#1310Sergey Betov

1-6 6-1 10-3—Fanming Meng

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#604Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#502Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#648Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#277Dan Added

3-6 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-2#817Arda Azkara

7-6(4) 6-3#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-2#299Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-3 6-1#1743Alberto Lim

6-3 7-6(5)#851Shintaro Imai

6-2 6-0—Kai-I Wang

6-4 6-1#876Thanapet Chanta

7-5 6-7(9) 7-6(3)—Jia Hu

6-2 5-7 6-3#286Petr Bar Biryukov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

WKWeiyi KongKong

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeongML

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Weiyi Kong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In11/15 · 15/1558.5%+4.5pp63.0%

1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/1559.5%+10.8pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/1546.0%+1.0pp45.0%

Aces / Match11/15 · 15/151.6+2.13.7

Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/153.8—3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/1538.6%+1.5pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/1534.2%+18.4pp52.6%

Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/1555.7%—55.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/1546.3%+4.3pp50.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.5%1st Serve In11/15 · 15/15+4.5pp63.0%

59.5%1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/15+10.8pp70.3%

46.0%2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/15+1.0pp45.0%

1.6Aces / Match11/15 · 15/15+2.13.7

3.8Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/15—3.9

Return · 0–1

38.6%Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+1.5pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

34.2%Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/15+18.4pp52.6%

55.7%Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/15—55.7%

Points · 0–1

46.3%Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+4.3pp50.6%

Weiyi Kong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Weiyi Kong @ 8.00

Weiyi Kong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Stat Battle