United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Oliver Tarvet #380United Kingdom2Charles Broom #289United Kingdom1

Sets 6-4 · 5-7 · 6-1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCharles Broom · 91 places

Oliver Tarvet

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 29 October 2003. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface and records his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 324 on 16 February 2026.

Current ranking: #380
Peak ranking: #324 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Structured match data lists Broom at No. 289.

Current ranking: #289
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Charles Broom is the value pick to beat Oliver Tarvet at 2.60 odds, with a 62% model probability versus 38.5% implied.

Broom won their only H2H 6-3 6-2 on hard court and has a stronger overall hard-court baseline, though Tarvet's recent form is slightly better. Avoid the first-set market due to thin edge and Tarvet's high first-set conversion rate.

Context

Broom won 6-3 6-2 in the round of 12 at tournament 21950.
- Broom won 83% of break points in that match, while Tarvet converted only 25%.
- Broom won 80% of first-serve points, compared to Tarvet's 64%.
Tarvet hard-court record last 15: 11-1 (91.7%), Broom: 10-3 (76.9%).
- Tarvet wins 61.9% of games on hard, Broom wins 57.9%.
- Tarvet wins 55.9% of total points on hard, Broom wins 53.0%.
Tarvet's last two matches: 6-3 6-4 and 6-2 5-7 6-4 wins, no retirements.
- Broom's last two matches: 6-1 6-1 and 7-5 6-3 wins, no retirements.
- No injury or illness findings in the intel data for either player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Broom's direct H2H win and stronger overall hard-court baseline give him the edge, though Tarvet's recent hard-court form is slightly better.
- H2H: Broom beat Tarvet 6-3 6-2 on hard court on 2026-08-09.
- Broom last 15 on hard: 10-3 record, 57.9% games won, 53.0% total points won.
- Tarvet last 15 on hard: 11-1 record, 61.9% games won, 55.9% total points won.
- Broom ranking 289 vs Tarvet 380.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths average over 22 games, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Tarvet last 15 average games per match: 22.3 (334 games / 15 matches).
- Broom last 15 average games per match: 22.4 (336 games / 15 matches).
- H2H match had 17 games, but both players' recent matches often exceed 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 9.3 games per set, making over 9.5 in set 1 a coin-flip with slight lean over.
- Tarvet last 15 average set games: 9.3 (334 games / 36 sets).
- Broom last 15 average set games: 9.3 (336 games / 36 sets).
- H2H first set had 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broom's H2H first-set win and solid first-set conversion rate support a slight edge in set 1.
- Broom first set win conversion career: 87%.
- Tarvet first set win conversion career: 93%.
- H2H: Broom won first set 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical data suggests a tiebreak is less likely than not in a best-of-3 match.
- Tarvet career tiebreak win percentage: 62%.
- Broom career tiebreak win percentage: 52%.
- Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, but most sets are decided without tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-2Oliver Tarvet#380vCharles Broom#289Aug 9, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Oliver Tarvet

13W 2L

6-2 5-7 6-4#281Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 6-3 6-4#587John Echeverria

6-3 6-2#289Charles Broom

6-4 7-6(11)#357Anton Matusevich

6-2 3-6 6-1#507Alex Rybakov

7-6(2) 6-4#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-4 6-3#816Toby Martin

6-1 6-3#475Emile Hudd

6-1 6-1#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 2-0 ret.—Rahul Dhokia

6-3 6-1#900Sebastian Dominko

6-2 3-6 6-3—Benjamin Gusic Wan

7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-2 7-5#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-2#185Alexis Galarneau

Charles Broom

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#507Alex Rybakov 6-1 6-1#555Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-2#380Oliver Tarvet

6-1 7-5#403Lui Maxted

6-4 6-0—Oscar Brown

7-5 6-4#827Nicolas Jadoun

7-5 6-4—Nicholas Godsick

2-6 6-2 6-4#112Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(4) 6-2#113Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#213Rio Noguchi

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#158Zhizhen Zhang

2-6 6-3 6-2#355Edward Winter

6-2 4-6 7-5#213Rio Noguchi

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#83Marcos Giron

6-3 4-6 6-1#111Titouan Droguet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OTOliver TarvetTarvet

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Charles BroomBroomCB

Oliver Tarvet carries the stronger recent form — Charles Broom's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.9%+5.6pp62.5%

1st Serve Won76.5%+8.3pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won53.9%+3.8pp50.1%

Aces / Match6.0+2.33.7

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.4%+1.7pp42.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.8%+4.2pp46.0%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+3.3pp57.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.8%+3.0pp51.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.9%1st Serve In+5.6pp62.5%

76.5%1st Serve Won+8.3pp68.2%

53.9%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp50.1%

6.0Aces / Match+2.33.7

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 1–0

44.4%Return Pts Won+1.7pp42.7%

Pressure · 0–2

41.8%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp46.0%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp57.8%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won+3.0pp51.8%