Alex Rybakov #507United States00 – 2Charles Broom #289United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Broom's superior recent hard-court form and ranking give him a clear edge over Rybakov in this Challenger match.

• Broom last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Rybakov 8-7 (53.3%)
• Broom hard-court last 12 record 9-3 (75%) vs Rybakov hard-court last 7 record 3-4 (42.9%)
• Broom ranking 289 vs Rybakov ranking 507
• Broom last 5 matches all wins on hard, Rybakov last 5 mixed with 2 losses

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Rybakov's ability to stay competitive in games should allow him to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Rybakov last 15 games won 53%, Broom 55.7%
• Rybakov hard-court games won 52%, Broom 57.5%
• Rybakov has kept matches close despite losses
• Broom's recent wins have often been by 4+ games, but Rybakov's competitiveness suggests cover

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Competitive serve and return numbers suggest a close match with a chance of exceeding 21.5 games.

• Rybakov average match duration 121.8 min, Broom 104.4 min
• Rybakov last 15 games won 53%, Broom 55.7%
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Rybakov 61.9%, Broom 56.2%)
• Rybakov has played 3 three-set matches in last 15, Broom 4

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player has shown a dominant first-set pattern, making a longer opening set plausible.

• Rybakov first-set average games in last 15: 9.6
• Broom first-set average games in last 15: 9.3
• Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages
• No dominant first-set server in recent data

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Broom's stronger return game on hard courts should allow him to take the opening set.

• Broom first-set win conversion career 87%, Rybakov 87%
• Broom last 15 first-serve points won 67.9%, Rybakov 67.8%
• Broom hard-court return points won 45.9% vs Rybakov 40.2%
• Broom has won first set in 4 of last 5 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average a combined 8.7 aces per match, making over 8.5 a reasonable expectation.

• Rybakov aces per match last 15: 4.8
• Broom aces per match last 15: 3.9
• Combined average aces per match: 8.7
• Hard court surface typically produces more aces

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average is near the line, making over 5.5 a coin-flip proposition.

• Rybakov double faults per match last 15: 2.7
• Broom double faults per match last 15: 2.7
• Combined average double faults per match: 5.4
• Both players have similar double fault rates