United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #277Brazil1Oliver Tarvet #380United Kingdom2

Sets 2-6 · 7-5 · 4-6Wed 19 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida · 103 places

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

Career-high No. 190 on 26 September 2022. A 30 March 2026 report announced his return from injury for the April Campinas Challenger.

Current ranking: #277
Peak ranking: #190 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Oliver Tarvet

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 29 October 2003. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface and records his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 324 on 16 February 2026.

Current ranking: #380
Peak ranking: #324 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Tarvet is the clear favorite on hard courts, but the odds are overpriced, offering no value on the moneyline or set betting.

Pucinelli's clay-court pedigree and Tarvet's weak break-point saving could make this closer than expected, so consider over 21.5 total games or over 7.5 total aces as alternative angles.

Context

Tarvet's last 15 hard-court record is 10-1, with wins over opponents ranked 587, 357, 507, 868, 816, 475, 1391, 900, and unranked players.
- His only hard-court loss in that span was to Charles Broom, ranked 289.
- Pucinelli is ranked 281, which is higher than most of Tarvet's recent opponents.
Pucinelli's last 15 matches: 14 on clay, 1 on hard.
- His only hard-court match was a 6-3 6-1 win over Peter Makk (ranked 553).
- Career hard-court record is 22-7, but he has only 22 career hard wins compared to 250 on clay.
Tarvet's hard-court break points saved in last 15: 12/31 (38.7%).
- Pucinelli's overall break points saved in last 15: 86/120 (71.7%).
- Tarvet's first-serve points won on hard courts is 74.5%, but his second-serve points won is only 54.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Oliver Tarvet

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Tarvet's dominant hard-court form and surface fit make him the clear favorite, but the odds are heavily juiced, offering no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Oliver Tarvet

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tarvet's strong first-set record on hard courts and high first-serve effectiveness make him likely to take the opening set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Oliver Tarvet 2-0

1.50fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The quoted price implies a 66.7% probability, but the model estimate is only 42%, making this a negative-value bet despite Tarvet's strong form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Tarvet's superior hard-court surface fit and recent hard-court form give him the edge over Pucinelli, who is primarily a clay-court specialist.
- Oliver Tarvet last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%), with 10-1 on hard courts in that window.
- Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), but only 1-0 on hard courts; 14 of 15 recent matches on clay.
- Tarvet career hard-court win percentage 75% (59-20); Pucinelli career hard-court win percentage 22-7 (75.9%) but only 22 career hard wins vs 250 clay wins.
- Tarvet has won 9 of his last 10 hard-court matches, including a 6-3 6-4 win in the previous round at this tournament.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOliver TarvetEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Tarvet's dominance, Pucinelli's competitive clay-court form and decent return game could extend the match beyond 21.5 games.
- Pucinelli's last 15 matches average 24.1 total games per match (361 games / 15 matches).
- Tarvet's last 15 matches average 21.9 total games per match (329 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have high break-point save rates: Pucinelli 71.7%, Tarvet 53.1% overall (but 38.7% on hard in last 15).
- Tarvet's hard-court matches in last 15 average 18.7 games per match, but several were one-sided wins against lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A competitive first set is plausible given Pucinelli's fighting qualities, but Tarvet's strong serving could keep it under 9.5 games.
- Pucinelli's recent matches often feature tight first sets; his last 15 include several 7-6 or 7-5 first sets.
- Tarvet's first-set scores on hard courts in last 15: 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.
- Average first-set total games for Tarvet on hard in last 15: approximately 8.5.
- Pucinelli's only hard-court match in last 15 had a first set of 6-3 (9 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Tarvet's strong first-set record on hard courts and high first-serve effectiveness make him likely to take the opening set.
- Tarvet first-set win conversion career: 93% (when winning first set).
- Tarvet has won the first set in 10 of his last 11 hard-court matches.
- Pucinelli first-set win conversion career: 84%, but his recent first-set performance on hard courts is limited to one match (won 6-3).
- Tarvet's first-serve points won on hard courts in last 15: 74.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOliver TarvetEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tarvet's serving power should push the combined ace total over 7.5, especially if the match goes to three sets.
- Tarvet averages 5.7 aces per match overall in last 15, and 4.5 aces per match on hard courts in last 15.
- Pucinelli averages 2.3 aces per match overall in last 15, and 2.0 aces in his only hard-court match.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.7 + 2.3 = 8.0 overall; on hard courts: 4.5 + 2.0 = 6.5.
- Tarvet's career ace rate is higher on grass (9.3 per match) but hard courts still produce solid ace numbers.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages from both players' recent matches support a total over 4.5.
- Pucinelli averages 2.7 double faults per match in last 15 overall, and 1.0 in his only hard-court match.
- Tarvet averages 2.6 double faults per match in last 15 overall, and 2.6 on hard courts in last 15.
- Combined average double faults: 2.7 + 2.6 = 5.3 overall.
- Both players have similar double fault rates, suggesting a combined total around 5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Tarvet is a trap: his true win probability is much lower than the implied 87%, making this a poor value bet.

Previous match context available

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

12W 3L

6-3 6-1#553Peter Makk 6-4 5-7 6-2#347Jan Kumstat 4-6 6-3 6-4#442Dylan Dietrich

6-1 6-3#318Max Schoenhaus

7-6(1) 3-6 7-5#293Florian Broska

7-6(4) 2-6 7-5#181Federico Agustin Gomez

6-2 7-6(5)#208Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#215Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-2#420Johan Nikles

6-3 6-4#530Louis Wessels

6-3 7-6(4)#236Juan Pablo Varillas

6-1 6-4#378Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 4-6 7-5#673Dmitry Popko

5-7 6-3 6-2#340Hernan Casanova

6-3 4-6 6-4#653Samuel Heredia

Oliver Tarvet

13W 2L

6-3 6-4#587John Echeverria

6-3 6-2#289Charles Broom

6-4 7-6(11)#357Anton Matusevich

6-2 3-6 6-1#507Alex Rybakov

7-6(2) 6-4#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-4 6-3#816Toby Martin

6-1 6-3#475Emile Hudd

6-1 6-1#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 2-0 ret.—Rahul Dhokia

6-3 6-1#900Sebastian Dominko

6-2 3-6 6-3—Benjamin Gusic Wan

7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-2 7-5#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-5 6-2#185Alexis Galarneau

7-6(3) 7-5#162Alex Bolt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaAlmeida

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Oliver TarvetTarvetOT

Oliver Tarvet carries the stronger recent form — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.3%+6.7pp56.6%

1st Serve Won69.6%+7.0pp76.6%

2nd Serve Won54.8%+0.9pp55.7%

Aces / Match2.3+3.45.7

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.1%—44.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.7%+1.4pp40.3%

Break Pts Saved71.7%+18.6pp53.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won54.0%+0.9pp54.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.3%1st Serve In+6.7pp56.6%

69.6%1st Serve Won+7.0pp76.6%

54.8%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp55.7%

2.3Aces / Match+3.45.7

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.1%Return Pts Won—44.2%

Pressure · 2–0

41.7%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp40.3%

71.7%Break Pts Saved+18.6pp53.1%

Points · 0–1

54.0%Total Pts Won+0.9pp54.9%