United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Peliwo #555Canada0Charles Broom #289United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Tue 18 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCharles Broom · 266 places

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #555
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Structured match data lists Broom at No. 289.

Current ranking: #289
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Charles Broom is the clear favorite based on ranking, recent form, and hard-court record, but his odds of 1.08 are far too short relative to his estimated 62% win probability.

Filip Peliwo has shown he can compete, winning their most recent H2H, and the match could be closer than the market suggests. Value may lie in the over 21.5 total games and over 5.5 total aces, though confidence is low.

Context

Broom's last five hard-court matches: W 6-3 6-2 vs Tarvet, W 6-1 7-5 vs Maxted, W 6-4 6-0 vs Brown, W 7-5 6-4 vs Jadoun, W 7-5 6-4 vs Godsick.
- All five wins came in straight sets, showing consistent control.
- Opponents included players ranked 380, 403, 827, and unranked, indicating a mix of quality.
Peliwo lost to Luc Fomba (ranked 1765) 6-3 6-4 on 13 Aug 2026.
- Peliwo lost to Ronald Hohmann (ranked 1391) 6-3 6-0 on 28 Jul 2026.
- Peliwo lost to Zsombor Velcz (ranked 889) 6-1 6-3 on 16 Jul 2026.
- These losses show vulnerability against lower-ranked players, which could matter against Broom.
H2H record: Broom leads 2-1, with all matches on hard courts.
- Peliwo's win came in their most recent meeting, suggesting he can compete.
- The previous two meetings were in 2022, with Broom winning both.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.08fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Broom's superior recent form and ranking give him a clear edge, but the quoted price of 1.08 implies a 92.6% win probability, far above the model's 62% estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.15fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Broom's superior recent serve and return metrics suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Broom's superior recent form, ranking, and hard-court record give him a clear edge over Peliwo.
- Charles Broom last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), last 15 hard record 8-3 (72.7%)
- Filip Peliwo last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%), all on hard
- Broom ranking 289 vs Peliwo ranking 555
- H2H: Broom leads 2-1, both wins on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive H2H and moderate serve/return profiles suggest a match that could extend beyond 21 games.
- Peliwo last 15 average 20.3 games per match, Broom 22.0
- H2H matches: 19, 23, 20 games
- Both players have similar break point save rates around 55%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical first sets between these players have consistently reached 10 games, supporting an over.
- Peliwo last 15 first set average 9.3 games, Broom 9.5
- H2H first sets: 10, 10, 10 games
- Both players have first serve win percentages below 70%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Broom's stronger serve and return metrics in recent matches suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Broom first set win conversion 87% career, Peliwo 84%
- Broom last 15 first serve points won 67.8%, Peliwo 63.7%
- Broom last 15 return points won 43.6%, Peliwo 37.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broom's higher ace rate and historical H2H ace counts support a moderate over on total aces.
- Broom last 15 aces per match 3.7, Peliwo 1.9
- H2H total aces: 26 in 3 matches (8.7 per match)
- Broom career aces 2136 in 485 matches (4.4 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined recent double fault rates and H2H history suggest a near-even chance of exceeding 5.5 double faults.
- Both players average 2.7 double faults per match in last 15
- H2H total double faults: 21 in 3 matches (7.0 per match)
- Peliwo career double faults 2099 in 873 matches (2.4 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The price on Broom is far too short relative to his actual win probability, making it a poor value bet despite his favorite status.

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

W6-4 6-3Filip Peliwo#555vCharles Broom#289Aug 13, 2024

L4-6 6-4 6-1Filip Peliwo#555vCharles Broom#289Aug 14, 2022

L6-4 6-4Filip Peliwo#555vCharles Broom#289May 12, 2022

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Filip Peliwo

7W 8L

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#621Nicolas Tepmahc 6-4 6-2#883Giulio Perego

6-3 6-4#1765Luc Fomba

6-1 6-1—Filip Kiryllo

6-1 3-6 6-3#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 6-0#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 6-3#889Zsombor Velcz

6-4 6-2—Andreas Scott

4-6 6-1 6-3#890Chirag Duhan

6-2 6-4#725Khololwam Montsi

3-6 6-3 7-5#784Matt Ponchet

6-4 7-5#606Guillaume Dalmasso

6-3 6-2—Rafael Ymer

7-6(5) 6-1#880Kristjan Tamm

6-3 6-1#334Eliakim Coulibaly

Charles Broom

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#380Oliver Tarvet

6-1 7-5#403Lui Maxted

6-4 6-0—Oscar Brown

7-5 6-4#827Nicolas Jadoun

7-5 6-4—Nicholas Godsick

2-6 6-2 6-4#112Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(4) 6-2#113Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#213Rio Noguchi

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#158Zhizhen Zhang

2-6 6-3 6-2#355Edward Winter

6-2 4-6 7-5#213Rio Noguchi

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#83Marcos Giron

6-3 4-6 6-1#111Titouan Droguet

6-1 6-4#189Andrea Guerrieri

6-0 6-0—Dylan Leeman

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip PeliwoPeliwo

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Charles BroomBroomCB

Charles Broom carries the stronger recent form — Filip Peliwo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.0%+2.5pp62.5%

1st Serve Won63.7%+4.1pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+0.9pp50.5%

Aces / Match1.9+1.83.7

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.7%+5.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted35.6%+10.9pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved55.3%—55.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.1%+4.1pp52.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.0%1st Serve In+2.5pp62.5%

63.7%1st Serve Won+4.1pp67.8%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp50.5%

1.9Aces / Match+1.83.7

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.7

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won+5.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

35.6%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp46.5%

55.3%Break Pts Saved—55.2%

Points · 0–1

48.1%Total Pts Won+4.1pp52.2%