SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy2Max Dahlin #880Sweden0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Tue 18 Aug 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTommaso Compagnucci · 516 places

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Italian player born 5 November 1999. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his 2026 record in the retrieved official profile was predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #364 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Max Dahlin

Sweden

Swedish player born 27 December 2005. Reliable retrieved sources confirm a career-high singles ranking of No. 870 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #880
Peak ranking: #870 · 2024
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Compagnucci's ranking and clay experience give him a moderate edge over Dahlin, but Dahlin's strong serve and recent form could keep it close.

Back Compagnucci at 2.25 and over 9.5 games in set one; avoid Dahlin at 1.65 and the 2-1 exact score for Compagnucci.

Context

Dahlin last15 aces per match: 6.3 (94 aces in 15 matches).
- Dahlin last15 double faults per match: 3.8 (57 in 15 matches).
- On clay, Dahlin's aces rise to 6.7 per match and double faults to 4.2 per match.
- Compagnucci averages only 1.9 aces and 2.2 double faults per match, so Dahlin's serve will likely be the main source of free points.
Compagnucci career clay wins: 190; Dahlin career clay wins: 14.
- Compagnucci has played 349 career matches overall; Dahlin has played 48.
- Compagnucci's last 15 clay record is 9-6 (60%), while Dahlin's is 7-4 (63.6%) in 11 tracked clay matches.
- Dahlin's clay sample is smaller, so his recent win rate may be less reliable than Compagnucci's longer track record.
Dahlin last15 average games per match: 26.1 (391 games in 15 matches).
- Dahlin last15 clay average games per match: 27.3 (300 games in 11 matches).
- Compagnucci last15 average games per match: 20.8 (312 games in 15 matches).
- Dahlin's last three matches all went to three sets, including a 6-4 5-7 6-4 loss to Jamie Mackenzie on 1 August.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Compagnucci's much higher ranking and extensive clay-court experience outweigh Dahlin's slightly better recent win percentage, giving the Italian a moderate edge.
- Compagnucci last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Dahlin 10-5 (66.7%)
- Compagnucci last15 clay record 9-6 (60%) vs Dahlin clay 7-4 (63.6%)
- Compagnucci ranking 364 vs Dahlin 880
- Compagnucci career clay wins 190 vs Dahlin 14
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dahlin's matches consistently produce high game totals, and both players' tendency to go to deciding sets supports a longer match.
- Compagnucci last15 average 20.8 games per match
- Dahlin last15 average 26.1 games per match
- Dahlin last15 clay average 27.3 games per match
- Both players have high deciding set rates (Compagnucci 60%, Dahlin 58%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players average over 10 games per set in recent matches, making a competitive first set likely.
- Compagnucci last15 average 10.4 games per set
- Dahlin last15 average 10.3 games per set
- Dahlin last15 clay average 10.3 games per set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar per-set game averages suggest the second set will also be closely contested.
- Compagnucci last15 average 10.4 games per set
- Dahlin last15 average 10.3 games per set
- Dahlin has played multiple tiebreaks in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Compagnucci's superior career first-set conversion rate and overall match edge make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Compagnucci first set win conversion 92% career
- Dahlin first set win conversion 81% career
- Compagnucci last15 first serve points won 66.4% vs Dahlin 74.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dahlin's high ace rate alone nearly covers the line, and Compagnucci adds a small contribution, making over 7.5 aces likely.
- Dahlin last15 aces per match 6.3
- Dahlin last15 clay aces per match 6.7
- Compagnucci last15 aces per match 1.9
- Combined expected aces ~8.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to push the combined total over 5.5.
- Dahlin last15 double faults per match 3.8
- Dahlin last15 clay double faults per match 4.2
- Compagnucci last15 double faults per match 2.2
- Combined expected double faults ~6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and Dahlin's frequent tiebreak appearances make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Dahlin career tiebreak win percentage 73%
- Compagnucci career tiebreak win percentage 53%
- Dahlin has played multiple tiebreaks in recent clay matches
- Both players have close set averages around 10 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Tommaso Compagnucci has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Tommaso Compagnucci has fulfilled 4 of 7 recent win projections, a 57% success rate. His average estimated probability was 60.3%, yielding an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions, so his actual results are close to expectation. All three missed projections ended in losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent.

Recent evidence for Tommaso Compagnucci7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#306Dali Blanch0-2#358Tommaso Compagnucci

BetBugsTommaso Compagnucci to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#306Dali Blanch0-2#358Tommaso Compagnucci

Tommaso Compagnucci to win

58%probability

Tommaso Compagnucci won

Matched

25 Jun·Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#396Petr Nesterov2-0#374Tommaso Compagnucci

BetBugsTommaso Compagnucci to win·62%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#396Petr Nesterov2-0#374Tommaso Compagnucci

Tommaso Compagnucci to win

62%probability

Petr Nesterov won

Missed

22 Jun·Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#370Tommaso Compagnucci2-1#287Maxim Mrva

BetBugsTommaso Compagnucci to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#370Tommaso Compagnucci2-1#287Maxim Mrva

Tommaso Compagnucci to win

58%probability

Tommaso Compagnucci won

Matched

15 Jun·Parma - Italy

#371Tommaso Compagnucci1-2#504Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

BetBugsTommaso Compagnucci to win·62%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#371Tommaso Compagnucci1-2#504Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Tommaso Compagnucci to win

62%probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano won

Missed

28 May·Vicenza - Italy

#465Jacopo Vasami2-1#364Tommaso Compagnucci

BetBugsTommaso Compagnucci to win·62%

Missed

28 May 2026

Vicenza - Italy

#465Jacopo Vasami2-1#364Tommaso Compagnucci

Tommaso Compagnucci to win

62%probability

Jacopo Vasami won

Missed

Tommaso Compagnucci

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 7-5#780Aleksandr Braynin

6-4 6-2#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 7-6(3)#313Dali Blanch

6-2 6-1—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-4#515Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-2 7-6(3)#410Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2—Alex Huszar

6-4 4-6 6-2#879Petros Tsitsipas

6-0 6-0#461Matthew William Donald

6-2 6-1—Francesco Giuseppe Colasanto

6-3 7-6(4)#301Petr Nesterov

6-3 6-3#541Tomasz Berkieta

7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-2#309Maxim Mrva

6-3 6-7(7) 6-4#411Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Max Dahlin

10W 5L

6-4 5-7 6-4#581Jamie Mackenzie

7-6(2) 3-6 7-5#272Daniel Elahi Galan

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#145Tom Gentzsch

6-4 7-5#286Matteo Martineau

4-6 6-4 6-1#53Sebastian Baez

6-4 6-2#353Raphael Perot

7-6(0) 6-1#713Evan Bynoe

6-3 7-5#561Alan Magadan

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4—Matthew Thomson

7-6(3) 6-4#798Nikola Slavic

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#742John Hallquist Lithen

6-0 6-3#2043Lawrence Bataljin

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(8)#880Jonathan Mridha

6-3 6-1—Filip Gustafsson

3-6 6-3 10-5—Daniel Verbeek

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TCTommaso CompagnucciCompagnucci

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Max DahlinDahlinMD

Max Dahlin carries the stronger recent form — Tommaso Compagnucci's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.3%+2.1pp57.2%

1st Serve Won66.4%+8.3pp74.7%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+3.6pp52.0%

Aces / Match1.9+4.46.3

Double Faults / Match2.21.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.0%+3.7pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.7%+12.3pp35.4%

Break Pts Saved44.3%+14.8pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+0.9pp51.6%

Serve · 2–3

59.3%1st Serve In+2.1pp57.2%

66.4%1st Serve Won+8.3pp74.7%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp52.0%

1.9Aces / Match+4.46.3

2.2Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

43.0%Return Pts Won+3.7pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

47.7%Break Pts Converted+12.3pp35.4%

44.3%Break Pts Saved+14.8pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+0.9pp51.6%

Tommaso Compagnucci

Max Dahlin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Tommaso Compagnucci

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Tommaso Compagnucci

Max Dahlin

Stat Battle