Jacopo Vasami #465Italy22 – 1Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths and tiebreak tendencies indicate a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Vasami's last 5 matches averaged 21.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Compagnucci's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates (Vasami 61% win, Compagnucci 52% win), suggesting close sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive in recent matches for both, suggesting a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.

• Vasami's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Compagnucci's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to bounce back in second sets after losing the first.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vasami's recent competitive performances suggest he can cover a +3.5 game handicap against Compagnucci.

• Vasami's last 5 losses have been by margins of 4, 4, 5, 8, and 7 games, but his wins have been by 6, 4, 6, 5, and 5 games.
• Compagnucci's last 5 wins have been by 4, 8, 5, 3, and 6 games, but his loss was by 10 games.
• The match is expected to be competitive, with Vasami likely to keep it close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Compagnucci's consistent first-set performance and superior return game on clay make him likely to take the opener.

• Compagnucci has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches, while Vasami has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 losses.
• Compagnucci's first-set win conversion rate is 92% career, indicating strong starts.
• Vasami's first-serve win percentage (72%) is higher, but Compagnucci's return game is more effective on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vasami's higher double fault rate could push the total over 4.5, especially in a potentially tight match.

• Vasami has a 4.3% double fault rate, and Compagnucci has 2.6%.
• In their last 5 matches, Vasami has hit 3, 2, 4, 1, and 3 double faults (avg 2.6), and Compagnucci has hit 2, 1, 2, 3, and 1 (avg 1.8).
• Combined, their recent double fault counts average around 4.4 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Vasami's higher ace rate could push the total over 5.5, but Compagnucci's low ace count makes this a borderline call.

• Vasami averages 7.8% ace rate, while Compagnucci averages 3.2%.
• In their last 5 matches, Vasami has hit 4, 3, 5, 2, and 6 aces (avg 4.0), and Compagnucci has hit 2, 1, 3, 2, and 1 (avg 1.8).
• Combined, their recent ace counts average around 5.8 per match.