Tommaso Compagnucci #370Italy22 – 1Maxim Mrva #287Czechia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00

The read

Compagnucci's superior clay-court form and surface fit give him a clear edge over Mrva, who has struggled on clay this season.

• Compagnucci is 37-12 on clay in 2026, winning 75.5% of matches this season.
• Mrva is 9-10 on clay in 2026, with a 47.4% win rate on the surface.
• Compagnucci has won 8 of his last 10 matches, all on clay, with dominant scorelines.
• Mrva lost his most recent clay match 6-3 6-3 to Gustavo Heide, while Compagnucci's last loss was a tight three-setter.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data from both players indicates a tendency for matches to exceed 20.5 games, even in straight-set outcomes.

• Compagnucci's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Mrva's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 20.5.
• Both players have competitive recent matches, suggesting a close contest.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players suggest a competitive start, likely pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Compagnucci's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Mrva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have been involved in tight opening sets recently.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While not a strong trend, the second set has seen competitive games in recent outings, giving a near-even chance of exceeding 9.5 games.

• Compagnucci's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Mrva's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Second sets have been slightly tighter in their recent matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60

The read

Compagnucci's tendency to start fast and his high first-set win rate make him likely to take the opening set.

• Compagnucci has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches, including 9 of his last 10.
• Mrva has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches on clay.
• Compagnucci's first-set win conversion rate is 92% for his career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and their recent match data consistently shows combined ace totals under 7.5.

• Compagnucci averages 3.2 aces per match, while Mrva averages 3.7 aces per match.
• In their last 5 matches, Compagnucci has hit 3, 2, 4, 3, and 2 aces; Mrva has hit 4, 3, 5, 2, and 4 aces.
• Combined ace counts in recent matches rarely exceed 7.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Mrva's elevated double-fault rate, combined with Compagnucci's moderate numbers, makes it likely the match will exceed 5.5 double faults.

• Compagnucci averages 2.6 double faults per match, while Mrva averages 5.6 double faults per match.
• In their last 5 matches, Compagnucci has hit 2, 1, 3, 2, and 2 double faults; Mrva has hit 6, 5, 7, 4, and 6 double faults.
• Mrva's high double-fault rate consistently pushes combined totals over 5.5.