United StatesATP CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65Argentina2Jan Choinski #77United Kingdom1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 7-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 19:44 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Agustin Tirante · 12 places

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

Reached a career-high No. 52 on June 8, 2026. World Tennis lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #65
Peak ranking: #52 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Jan Choinski

United Kingdom

TennisDB lists a career-high No. 75 reached on July 13, 2026. No reliable returned source established a preferred surface or an active injury/decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #75 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Choinski’s superior recent form and return game make him a value underdog against Tirante, whose hard-court serve vulnerability is a concern.

The match is expected to be close, with over 21.5 total games offering a solid betting angle. Surface adaptation remains the key unknown, as Choinski’s dominance has come mostly on clay.

Context

Choinski last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), but 10-1 on clay and 0-0 on hard.
- Career hard-court win rate is only 50%, and he lost all four hard-court matches in 2025.
- Tirante last15 hard record 3-1, including straight-set wins over Fritz (rank 9) and Popyrin.
Tirante last15 hard first serve in 50.6% (125/247) over 4 matches.
- He wins 78.4% of first-serve points but only 58.2% on second serve.
- Choinski's return points won is 41.2% overall, suggesting he can exploit weak serving.
Choinski last15 return points won 41.2% vs Tirante 36.4%.
- Choinski's break point conversion is 35.1%, but he generates many opportunities (134 break points in 15 matches).
- Tirante saves 66.3% of break points, but his low first-serve rate increases pressure.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Choinski's superior recent form (80% win rate) and return game (41.2% return points won) give him a clear edge over Tirante, whose hard-court sample is small but shows vulnerability on serve (50.6% first serve in).
- Choinski last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Tirante 9-6 (60%)
- Choinski last15 return points won 41.2% vs Tirante 36.4%
- Choinski last15 break points saved 64.7% vs Tirante 66.3% (similar)
- H2H Choinski leads 2-1, all on clay, but Choinski's return edge translates to hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJan ChoinskiEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive H2H history suggest a close contest, with Tirante's hard-court matches averaging over 22 games, supporting over 21.5 total games.
- Tirante last15 hard average games per match 22.3 (89 games/4 matches)
- Choinski last15 overall average games per match 23.0 (345 games/15 matches)
- H2H matches averaged 21.3 games, all on clay
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to start sets competitively, with Tirante's hard-court first sets averaging 10 games and H2H history showing tight openers, making over 9.5 likely.
- Tirante last15 hard set1 average 10.0 games (40 games/4 matches)
- Choinski last15 overall set1 average 9.7 games (145 games/15 matches)
- H2H set1 scores: 6-4, 7-6, 6-3 (avg 10.7 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive in their H2H and recent matches, with averages near 10 games, suggesting a close set even if Choinski leads.
- Tirante last15 hard set2 average 9.8 games (39 games/4 matches)
- Choinski last15 overall set2 average 9.5 games (142 games/15 matches)
- H2H set2 scores: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 (avg 10.7 games)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Choinski's strong set-winning rate (72.2%) and high first-set conversion suggest he starts matches well, while Tirante's low first-serve percentage on hard courts could lead to an early break.
- Choinski last15 first set win conversion 88% career, Tirante 86%
- Choinski last15 overall sets won 72.2%, Tirante 53.8%
- Tirante last15 hard first serve in 50.6%, Choinski overall 63.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJan ChoinskiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Choinski's consistent set-winning form across surfaces makes him likely to take the second set if he wins the first, though Tirante's hard-court resilience (3-1) adds uncertainty.
- Choinski last15 overall sets won 72.2%
- Tirante last15 hard record 3-1 but small sample
- Choinski last15 second serve points won 54.8% vs Tirante 53.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJan ChoinskiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates, especially Choinski (1.7 per match), making under 5.5 total double faults likely.
- Tirante last15 hard double faults per match 2.8, Choinski overall 1.7
- Combined average double faults ~4.5 per match
- Choinski last15 clay double faults 1.5, showing low DF rate
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 7 aces per match, and with a likely close match extending games, total aces should exceed 12.5.
- Tirante last15 hard aces per match 7.5, Choinski overall 7.3
- Combined average aces per match ~14.8
- Choinski grass aces 11.0 per match, but hard data limited
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Tirante is priced as a strong favorite, but his recent hard-court stats and overall form do not justify such a short price against an in-form Choinski.

Prediction history

Jan Choinski has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jan Choinski has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, significantly exceeding the expected 9.7 based on average estimated probability. The two missed predictions both resulted in losses, with no draws. The current estimated probability of 62% sits within the historical range of 58–78%, aligning with past projections.

Recent evidence for Jan Choinski15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#191Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsJan Choinski to win·72%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#191Federico Agustin Gomez

Jan Choinski to win

72%probability

Jan Choinski won

Matched

31 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#386Olle Wallin

BetBugsJan Choinski to win·65%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#386Olle Wallin

Jan Choinski to win

65%probability

Jan Choinski won

Matched

29 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#264Alex Barrena

BetBugsJan Choinski to win·72%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#264Alex Barrena

Jan Choinski to win

72%probability

Jan Choinski won

Matched

27 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#220Francesco Passaro

BetBugsJan Choinski to win·72%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#88Jan Choinski2-0#220Francesco Passaro

Jan Choinski to win

72%probability

Jan Choinski won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#75Jan Choinski0-2#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsJan Choinski to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#75Jan Choinski0-2#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Jan Choinski to win

62%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-4 6-4Thiago Agustin Tirante#65vJan Choinski#77Apr 7, 2023

W7-6(5) 4-6 6-4Thiago Agustin Tirante#65vJan Choinski#77Mar 31, 2023

L6-3 7-6(5)Thiago Agustin Tirante#65vJan Choinski#77Nov 2, 2022

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Thiago Agustin Tirante

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#19Learner Tien 6-3 6-4#139Alexei Popyrin

7-5 6-3#9Taylor Fritz

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#606Duncan Chan

7-5 3-6 6-4#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#126Sebastian Ofner

7-5 6-3 6-4#61Fabian Marozsan

6-1 7-6(7)#109Toby Samuel

7-5 6-2#334Hamish Stewart

7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

4-6 7-6(4) 6-1 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-0#127Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-1#29Arthur Rinderknech

6-3 6-2#6Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-4#8Flavio Cobolli

Jan Choinski

12W 3L

6-3 6-2#573Jamie Mackenzie

6-4 6-2#174Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 7-5#407Olle Wallin

6-3 6-2#261Alex Barrena

6-3 6-4#219Francesco Passaro

6-4 7-6(4)#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

4-6 6-0 6-4#96Hugo Gaston

7-5 6-2#203Daniel Rincon

6-4 6-1#193Diego Dedura

2-6 7-5 6-4#332Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 6-4#378Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2#20Frances Tiafoe

6-3 7-5 6-2#71Vit Kopriva

6-3 6-3#34Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#218Felix Gill

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TTThiago Agustin TiranteTirante

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Jan ChoinskiChoinskiJC

Jan Choinski carries the stronger recent form — Thiago Agustin Tirante's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.4%+6.7pp63.1%

1st Serve Won73.0%+1.7pp74.7%

2nd Serve Won53.3%+1.5pp54.8%

Aces / Match7.5—7.3

Double Faults / Match3.51.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+4.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted39.2%+4.1pp35.1%

Break Pts Saved66.3%+1.6pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+3.4pp53.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

56.4%1st Serve In+6.7pp63.1%

73.0%1st Serve Won+1.7pp74.7%

53.3%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp54.8%

7.5Aces / Match—7.3

3.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+4.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 2–0

39.2%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp35.1%

66.3%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+3.4pp53.5%

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65Argentina2Jan Choinski #77United Kingdom1

Player Profiles

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Jan Choinski

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Jan Choinski

Jan Choinski

Over 9.5

Thiago Agustin Tirante 2-0

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 1.45

Jan Choinski 2-0 @ 4.75

Jan Choinski has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Jan Choinski

Stat Battle