Jan Choinski #88United Kingdom22 – 0Olle Wallin #386Sweden0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Choinski's superior clay pedigree, higher-quality recent wins, and lighter tournament workload give him a clear edge despite Wallin's strong form.

• Choinski's last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), with 7-1 (87.5%) on clay in that window.
• Choinski's clay last15: 59.3% games won, 54.8% total points won, 43.6% return points won.
• Wallin's last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), all on clay, but against lower-ranked opponents (avg rank ~350 vs Choinski's ~180).
• Choinski holds a 268-63 career clay record (81% win rate) vs Wallin's 51-30 (63%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players in strong form and capable of extending sets, the match is likely to feature at least 22 games.

• Choinski's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.5 games per match (172 games / 8 matches).
• Wallin's last 15 clay matches averaged 22.9 games per match (343 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have high hold/break dynamics: Choinski saves 56.7% BPs on clay, Wallin converts 47% BPs overall.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve effectively early on, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Choinski's last 8 clay first sets: 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 (avg 9.9 games).
• Wallin's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 4-6, 3-6 (avg 9.8 games).
• Both players have first-serve points won around 72-73% on clay, limiting early breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Even if Choinski leads, Wallin's fighting spirit could keep the second set close, making over 9.5 games plausible.

• Choinski's last 8 clay second sets: 6-2, 6-4, 7-6, 6-0, 6-2, 6-1, 7-5, 6-4 (avg 9.1 games).
• Wallin's last 5 second sets: 1-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 (avg 9.4 games).
• Wallin has shown resilience in second sets after losing the first, often forcing tighter games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

If Choinski controls the match, he could cover a -3.5 game handicap, though Wallin's resilience makes it a close call.

• Choinski's average games won margin on clay in last 8: +3.6 games (102 won, 70 lost).
• Wallin's average games won margin on clay in last 15: +3.8 games (200 won, 143 lost).
• Choinski's superior return points won (43.6% vs 44.7% for Wallin, but against better opponents) could widen the gap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Choinski's tendency to start fast on clay, combined with Wallin's recent pattern of slow starts, points to a Choinski first-set win.

• Choinski won the first set in 6 of his last 8 clay matches (75%).
• Wallin lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, requiring comebacks.
• Choinski's first-set win conversion rate career is 88%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Choinski's solid second-serve performance (57.6% points won on clay) may limit double faults, while Wallin's higher rate could be offset by match tension.

• Choinski averages 1.4 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
• Wallin averages 2.3 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
• Combined average: 3.7, but Choinski's low rate and pressure on Wallin's second serve could keep total under 3.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With two big servers (Choinski 196cm, Wallin 191cm) and potential for a three-setter, the total aces could surpass 12.5.

• Choinski averages 5.6 aces per match on clay in last 15; Wallin averages 5.9.
• Combined average: 11.5 aces per match, but both have shown higher ace counts in longer matches.
• If match goes three sets, total aces could exceed 12.5.