Jan Choinski #100United Kingdom00 – 2Nikoloz Basilashvili #111Georgia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Both players' recent matches frequently exceed 21.5 games, and their balanced serve/return profiles on clay support a longer match.

• Choinski's last 5 matches averaged 21.8 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Basilashvili's last 5 completed matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have similar serve/return stats (Choinski 68% first-serve won, Basilashvili 68.4%), suggesting competitive games.
• Clay courts in Bastad tend to produce longer rallies and more games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first-set scores for both players average around 9.5 games, and their comparable serve stats point to a competitive start.

• Choinski's last 5 first sets: 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, 4-6 (avg 9.8 games).
• Basilashvili's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 1-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 (avg 9.2 games).
• Both players have similar win-on-first-serve percentages (68%), reducing quick breaks.
• No H2H history, but both are ranked closely (100 vs 111), suggesting a tight opener.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Choinski's recent dominant second sets, Basilashvili's competitiveness and the clay surface suggest the second set could be tighter than expected.

• Choinski's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-1, 7-5, 6-4, 6-2 (avg 9.0 games).
• Basilashvili's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 2-1 ret., 3-6, 4-6, 6-4 (avg 9.4 games excluding retirement).
• Both players have break-point save rates around 60%, which can extend sets.
• Clay surface reduces service dominance, leading to more breaks and longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Basilashvili's high double-fault rate (5.3%) is the primary driver, making over 5.5 double faults likely even with Choinski's low rate.

• Basilashvili's double-fault rate is 5.3% (career), significantly higher than Choinski's 2.4%.
• In recent matches, Basilashvili averaged 3-4 double faults per match.
• Choinski's double-fault rate is low, but combined total can still exceed 5.5 if Basilashvili has an average day.
• Clay courts often lead to longer rallies and more pressure on second serves, increasing double faults.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate ace rates, and on clay, aces are less frequent, but their combined rates suggest a total around 8 aces is plausible.

• Choinski's ace rate is 5.1% (career), Basilashvili's is 5.4%.
• In best-of-3 clay matches, average total aces are typically 6-8.
• Choinski's height (196 cm) gives him a slight serve advantage.
• Basilashvili's double-fault rate (5.3%) suggests he may take risks on serve.