GermanyBonn - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Choinski #88United Kingdom2Francesco Passaro #220Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Mon 27 Jul 2026, 12:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–357%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJan Choinski · 132 places

Jan Choinski

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 75 on 13 July 2026. Clay is his strongest surface by career record, and he won the Zagreb and Brawo events in 2026.

Current ranking: #88
Peak ranking: #75 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Francesco Passaro

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 89 on 17 February 2025 and is currently ranked No. 220. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #220
Peak ranking: #89 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 15:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Top seed Jan Choinski brings superior clay form (6-2 recent record) and a straight-sets H2H win over Francesco Passaro, whose 40% clay win rate and negative game margin make him a clear underdog.

Best bets are Choinski to win, over 22.5 total games, and Choinski -3.5 games, while Passaro +3.5 and tiebreak yes should be avoided.

Context

Choinski's last-15 clay record is 6-2 (75%), with a 55.4% games-won rate.
- He won the Brawo Open in July, beating four opponents in straight sets.
- His recent form includes wins over top-100 players Gaston and Kopriva.
Passaro's last-15 clay record is 6-9 (40%), with a 48% games-won rate.
- He wins only 35.7% of return points and saves 60.2% of break points.
- Recent losses include straight-set defeats to players ranked outside the top 250.
The H2H was on clay, the same surface as this match.
- Choinski won 76% of first-serve points and 68% of second-serve points.
- Passaro converted only 1 of 4 break points and won just 27% of return points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Choinski's superior recent form (73% win rate vs 40%), dominant clay record (75% vs 40%), and a straight-sets H2H win on clay give him a clear edge.
- Choinski's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), Passaro's: 6-9 (40%).
- On clay last15: Choinski 6-2 (75%), Passaro 6-9 (40%).
- Choinski won their only H2H on clay in 2025: 7-6(4) 6-3.
- Choinski's last15 return points won: 38.2% vs Passaro's 35.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan ChoinskiEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing solid break-point saving and competitive recent clay matches averaging over 22 games, a total above 21.5 is likely.
- Choinski's last15 clay matches averaged 24.4 games per match.
- Passaro's last15 clay matches averaged 22.8 games per match.
- Both players have high break-point save rates: Choinski 67.7%, Passaro 60.2%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in their recent clay matches average near 10 games, and the H2H was tight, supporting over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Choinski's last15 clay first-set average: 9.9 games.
- Passaro's last15 clay first-set average: 9.7 games.
- H2H first set went to 7-6 (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Choinski's superior game-winning percentage on clay and his ability to win by comfortable margins in recent matches support a -3.5 handicap.
- Choinski's last15 clay games-won margin: +1.5 per match (55.4% games won).
- Passaro's last15 clay games-won margin: -0.8 per match (48% games won).
- Choinski covered -3.5 in 5 of his last 8 clay wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJan Choinski -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Choinski's strong first-set performance (73% overall, 75% on clay) contrasts with Passaro's frequent slow starts, making Choinski likely to take the opener.
- Choinski's last15 first-set win rate: 11/15 (73.3%), Passaro's: 6/15 (40%).
- On clay last15, Choinski won first set in 6/8 matches (75%).
- Passaro lost first set in 9 of last 15 matches overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJan ChoinskiEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Choinski's tendency to win in straight sets on clay (75% of recent wins) and Passaro's vulnerability to straight-set losses support a 2-0 outcome.
- Choinski won 6 of his last 8 clay matches in straight sets.
- Passaro lost 6 of his last 15 matches in straight sets.
- H2H was a straight-sets win for Choinski.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonJan Choinski 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Choinski's ace count (6 per clay match) plus Passaro's (3.1) pushes the combined total over 8.5, even on slower clay.
- Choinski averages 8.1 aces per match in last15 overall, 6.0 on clay.
- Passaro averages 3.1 aces per match in last15 overall.
- Combined average aces: 9.1 on clay (6.0 + 3.1).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Market price1.85Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The combined double-fault average of 4.7 per match, with Passaro's higher rate, makes over 4.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Choinski averages 1.9 double faults per match in last15, 2.0 on clay.
- Passaro averages 2.7 double faults per match in last15, 2.7 on clay.
- Combined average: 4.7 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Market price1.85Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(4) 6-3Jan Choinski#88vFrancesco Passaro#220Sep 19, 2025

1 total meetings

Jan Choinski

11W 4L

6-4 7-6(4)#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

4-6 6-0 6-4#90Hugo Gaston

7-5 6-2#207Daniel Rincon

6-4 6-1#197Diego Dedura

2-6 7-5 6-4#339Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 6-4#375Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2#19Frances Tiafoe

6-3 7-5 6-2#70Vit Kopriva

6-3 6-3#36Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#219Felix Gill

1-6 6-2 6-2#103Alexei Popyrin

7-5 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#85Marcos Giron

7-6(5) 6-4#117Yibing Wu

7-6(5) 3-6 6-4#134Gustavo Heide

6-4 2-6 6-3#233Maks Kasnikowski

Francesco Passaro

6W 9L

6-7(5) 6-1 7-6(4)#324Dominic Stricker

6-4 6-3#261Martin Krumich

6-1 3-6 6-3#233Maks Kasnikowski

5-7 6-4 7-5#214Henri Squire

6-3 3-1 ret.#478Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-2 6-4#323Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 7-5#305Daniel Michalski

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#509Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-4#338Oriol Roca Batalla

6-4 6-0#338Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 3-3 ret.#65Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

4-6 7-6(0) 6-2#30Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 6-4#98Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#128Vilius Gaubas

7-6(4) 6-3#190Elmer Moller

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJan ChoinskiChoinski

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesco PassaroPassaroFP

Jan Choinski carries the stronger recent form — Francesco Passaro's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.2%—63.8%

1st Serve Won72.7%+5.1pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won52.1%+1.0pp53.1%

Aces / Match8.1+5.03.1

Double Faults / Match1.90.8 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.2%+2.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.7%+4.7pp43.4%

Break Pts Saved67.7%+7.5pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+2.3pp49.3%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In—63.8%

72.7%1st Serve Won+5.1pp67.6%

52.1%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp53.1%

8.1Aces / Match+5.03.1

1.9Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won+2.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

38.7%Break Pts Converted+4.7pp43.4%

67.7%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+2.3pp49.3%

Jan Choinski #88United Kingdom2Francesco Passaro #220Italy0

Player Profiles

Jan Choinski

Francesco Passaro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jan Choinski

Jan Choinski

Over 8.5

Over 22.5

Over 4.5

Jan Choinski 2-0

Jan Choinski -3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Francesco Passaro +3.5 @ 1.70

Head-to-Head

Jan Choinski

Francesco Passaro

Stat Battle