Rafael Jodar #15Spain22 – 0Arthur Fils #24France0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Jodar's superior recent hard-court form, higher return points won, and direct H2H win on this surface give him a moderate edge.

• Jodar won their only hard-court H2H 7-6(5) 6-3 on 2026-07-28, covering 13 games to 9.
• Jodar's last-15 hard-court record is 7-1 (87.5%) with 58.2% games won; Fils is 3-1 (75%) with 57% games won on hard in the same window.
• Jodar's overall last-15 return points won is 40.6% vs Fils' 37.6%; on hard, Jodar 40.3% vs Fils 40.3% (small sample).
• Jodar's last-15 break point conversion is 44.7% vs Fils' 35.6%, and Jodar saves 62.8% vs Fils' 69.9%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have solid serving numbers and recent hard-court matches have trended toward 22+ games, supporting an over.

• Jodar's last-15 hard-court matches average 21.3 games per match (182 games / 8 matches = 22.75, but 7 of 8 were Bo3; the only Bo3 matches averaged 21.3).
• Fils' last-4 hard-court matches averaged 21.5 games (86/4).
• Their H2H on hard had 22 games; both players have strong serve stats (Jodar 70.8% first-serve points won, Fils 77.4% in last-15 overall).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Jodar's recent hard-court first sets frequently reach 10+ games, and the H2H suggests a tight opener.

• Jodar's last-8 hard-court first sets: 7-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 — 6 of 8 had 10+ games.
• Fils' last-4 hard-court first sets: 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7 — 2 of 4 had 10+ games.
• Their H2H first set was 7-6(5).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar's consistent hard-court game advantage and H2H result support a narrow cover of -1.5 games.

• Jodar's last-15 hard-court games won margin: +2.4 per match (106-86).
• Fils' last-4 hard-court games won margin: +1.5 per match (49-37).
• H2H on hard: Jodar won by 4 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Jodar's strong first-set record and recent hard-court trend make him likely to start fast against Fils.

• Jodar's career first-set win conversion is 94%, and he won the first set in their hard-court H2H.
• In his last 8 hard-court matches, Jodar won the first set in 6 of 8 (75%).
• Fils' last-15 first-serve points won is 77.4%, but Jodar's return points won on hard is 40.3%, suggesting he can pressure early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Fils' high ace rate on hard courts and Jodar's decent ace numbers push the combined total over 8.5.

• Jodar averages 3.3 aces per match on hard in last-15; Fils averages 6.8 on hard in last-4.
• Combined average in their last hard-court matches: 10.1 aces.
• H2H on hard: Jodar 6 aces, Fils 7 aces (total 13).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong serving stats and a history of tiebreaks in their matchup, making at least one tiebreak likely.

• Jodar's last-15 hard-court matches: 3 of 8 had a tiebreak (37.5%).
• Fils' last-4 hard-court matches: 2 of 4 had a tiebreak (50%).
• Their H2H on hard had a first-set tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and their H2H showed a high total, suggesting over 5.5 is plausible.

• Jodar averages 3.5 double faults per match on hard in last-15; Fils averages 3.0 on hard in last-4.
• Combined average: 6.5 double faults.
• H2H on hard: Jodar 6, Fils 6 (total 12).