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Predictions graded

Arthur Fils #24France2Cameron Norrie #37United Kingdom0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Sun 9 Aug 2026, 01:50 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fils · 13 places

Arthur Fils

France

Reached a career-high No. 14 in April 2025. Clay has produced his strongest recorded career win rate, although he has won tour titles on both clay and hard courts.

Current ranking: #24
Peak ranking: #14 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Cameron Norrie

United Kingdom

Age 30, left-handed and 188 cm. He reached career-high No. 8 on 12 September 2022, and the ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. A May 2026 rib issue was reported resolved by his June return.

Current ranking: #37
Peak ranking: #8 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Fils’ recent form and serve give him a slight edge, but Norrie’s hard-court experience keeps it close.

Best bet: over 22.5 total games; avoid Fils -3.5 game handicap and Norrie 2-0.

Context

Norrie last15 on Hard: 6-1 record (85.7% win rate), 60.4% games won, 54.9% total points won (7 matches tracked).
- Fils last15 on Hard: 2-1 record (66.7% win rate), 55.4% games won, 53.8% total points won (3 matches tracked).
- Norrie's hard-court wins include a three-set victory over world No. 7 Alex De Minaur in the previous round.
Fils last15 on Hard: 7.3 aces per match, 80.3% first-serve points won (3 matches tracked).
- Fils last15 overall: 4.3 aces per match, 77.6% first-serve points won (15 matches tracked).
- Norrie last15 on Hard: 46.5% return points won, but only 57.1% break points saved (7 matches tracked).
Norrie last15 on Hard: 56.2% first-serve in, 73.4% first-serve points won, 52.2% second-serve points won (7 matches tracked).
- Fils last15 on Hard: 41.1% return points won, 45% break points converted (3 matches tracked).
- Norrie's break points saved rate on hard courts is only 57.1% (20/35).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Fils has stronger recent overall form (73% wins) and a slight edge in total points won on hard courts in the last 15, but Norrie's hard-court sample is larger and more dominant; Fils gets the nod due to recency and surface fit.
- Fils last15 overall: 73.3% win rate, 56% games won, 52.9% total points won
- Fils last15 on Hard (3 matches): 66.7% win rate, 55.4% games won, 53.8% total points won
- Norrie last15 on Hard (7 matches): 85.7% win rate, 60.4% games won, 54.9% total points won
- Fils career Hard win%: 46/209 (22%), Norrie career Hard win%: 247/433 (57%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average around 22 games, and with competitive form, a close match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Fils last15 overall average games per match: 22.4 (336 games / 15 matches)
- Norrie last15 overall average games per match: 24.4 (366 games / 15 matches)
- Fils last15 on Hard average games per match: 21.7 (65 games / 3 matches)
- Norrie last15 on Hard average games per match: 22.0 (154 games / 7 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hard-court first sets between these two tend to be tight, with serve dominance likely pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Fils last15 on Hard: first set games averaged 9.3 (28 games / 3 matches)
- Norrie last15 on Hard: first set games averaged 9.1 (64 games / 7 matches)
- Both players have strong serve numbers on hard courts, reducing break frequency
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on hard courts have averaged over 9.5 games for both, suggesting another tight set is probable.
- Fils last15 on Hard: second set games averaged 9.7 (29 games / 3 matches)
- Norrie last15 on Hard: second set games averaged 9.3 (65 games / 7 matches)
- Both players maintain high first-serve win percentages in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both players start strong on hard courts, but Fils' overall recent form and higher first-set conversion rate in the last 15 give him a marginal edge.
- Fils last15 overall first set win%: 73.3% (11/15 matches won, most in straight sets)
- Norrie last15 on Hard first set win%: 85.7% (6/7 matches won, 5 in straight sets)
- Fils last15 on Hard: won first set in 2 of 3 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fils' ace rate spikes on hard courts (7.3 per match), and combined with Norrie's steady 3.6, the total should comfortably exceed 7.5.
- Fils last15 overall aces per match: 4.3
- Norrie last15 overall aces per match: 3.7
- Fils last15 on Hard aces per match: 7.3
- Norrie last15 on Hard aces per match: 3.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Norrie's higher double-fault rate (3.7 overall, 3.6 on hard) combined with Fils' 3.0 on hard pushes the expected total over 5.5.
- Fils last15 overall double faults per match: 2.2
- Norrie last15 overall double faults per match: 3.7
- Fils last15 on Hard double faults per match: 3.0
- Norrie last15 on Hard double faults per match: 3.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid serve numbers on hard courts, and recent matches show a moderate frequency of tiebreaks, making at least one likely.
- Fils career tiebreak win%: 61%
- Norrie career tiebreak win%: 51%
- Fils last15 on Hard: 1 tiebreak in 3 matches
- Norrie last15 on Hard: 2 tiebreaks in 7 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Fils' recent hard-court form does not support covering a -3.5 game handicap against a strong hard-court opponent like Norrie.

Prediction history

Arthur Fils has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 10 matches where Arthur Fils was predicted to win, he fulfilled 7 predictions. The average estimated probability was 66.8%, with an expected 6.7 wins, so he slightly outperformed expectations. All three missed predictions were losses, with no draws or unresolved outcomes.

Recent evidence for Arthur Fils10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#23Arthur Fils0-2#25Rafael Jodar

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·58%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#23Arthur Fils0-2#25Rafael Jodar

Arthur Fils to win

58%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#51Matteo Berrettini3-1#24Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·58%

Missed

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#51Matteo Berrettini3-1#24Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

58%probability

Matteo Berrettini won

Missed

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#43Raphael Collignon0-3#23Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·65%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#43Raphael Collignon0-3#23Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

65%probability

Arthur Fils won

Matched

9 May·ATP Rome

#155Andrea Pellegrino1-0#17Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·82%

Missed

9 May 2026

ATP Rome

#155Andrea Pellegrino1-0#17Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

82%probability

Andrea Pellegrino won

Missed

28 Apr·Madrid

#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry0-2#25Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·57%

Matched

28 Apr 2026

Madrid

#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry0-2#25Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

57%probability

Arthur Fils won

Matched

Previous match context available

Arthur Fils

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#44Mariano Navone

6-4 3-6 6-1#87Zachary Svajda

7-6(5) 6-3#15Rafael Jodar

6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3#40Matteo Berrettini

7-5 6-1 6-3#38Raphael Collignon

4-0 ret.#134Andrea Pellegrino

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 6-4#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(2) 6-3#106Emilio Nava

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-5#33Ignacio Buse

6-2 7-6(2)#16Andrey Rublev

3-6 6-3 6-2#15Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#13Lorenzo Musetti

6-2 6-3#31Brandon Nakashima

Cameron Norrie

8W 7L

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#7Alex De Minaur

6-3 6-3#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(5) 6-4#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 5-7 6-4#43Denis Shapovalov

6-1 6-0#160Bernard Tomic

6-4 6-4#86James Duckworth

6-4 6-1#95Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-7(7) 6-2 6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(4)#113Michael Zheng

7-6(6) 6-2#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-6(7) 2-0 ret.#66Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-4 6-4#44Mariano Navone

6-3 7-5#65Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-2 7-5#1Jannik Sinner

7-5 7-6(5)#65Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-2 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#58Tomas Machac

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFArthur FilsFils

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Cameron NorrieNorrieCN

Arthur Fils carries the stronger recent form — Cameron Norrie's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.1%+3.4pp60.7%

1st Serve Won77.6%+7.8pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won51.5%—51.4%

Aces / Match4.3+0.63.7

Double Faults / Match2.21.5 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.1%—37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.1%+2.1pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved67.6%+4.1pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+2.5pp50.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

64.1%1st Serve In+3.4pp60.7%

77.6%1st Serve Won+7.8pp69.8%

51.5%2nd Serve Won—51.4%

4.3Aces / Match+0.63.7

2.2Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.1%Return Pts Won—37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.1%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp40.2%

67.6%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+2.5pp50.4%

Arthur Fils #24France2Cameron Norrie #37United Kingdom0

Player Profiles

Arthur Fils

Cameron Norrie

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arthur Fils

Over 22.5

Arthur Fils 2-0

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Arthur Fils (-3.5) @ 1.90

Arthur Fils has been highly reliable when projected to win

Arthur Fils

Cameron Norrie

Stat Battle