Rafael Jodar #26Spain11 – 3Shintaro Mochizuki #151Japan3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players have shown they can engage in long matches on grass, and with neither having a dominant serve, a total games over 36.5 is likely given the best-of-5 format.

• Jodar's last two Wimbledon matches went to 44 and 30 total games, with the five-setter against Carreno-Busta lasting 44 games.
• Mochizuki's last three matches have averaged 33.7 total games, including a 43-game five-setter in qualifying.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 44-45%, suggesting extended games and potential for multiple breaks.
• In best-of-5 on grass, matches between players with similar return stats often exceed 36.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Mochizuki's competitive grass form and Jodar's tendency for close matches suggest Mochizuki can stay within 5.5 games, even in a loss.

• Mochizuki's recent grass matches have been competitive, with his last three wins coming by margins of 7, 15, and 1 game.
• Jodar's last two wins have been by 0 and 8 games, but his five-set win was by a narrow margin.
• Mochizuki has covered a +5.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Jodar's average game margin in wins this year is about 6 games, but against tougher opponents, it drops.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Jodar's strong record of winning the first set, combined with his superior serve, makes him the favorite to take the opener.

• Jodar has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches, including both Wimbledon matches this year.
• Mochizuki has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, though he won the first set in his last two Wimbledon matches.
• Jodar's first-set win conversion rate is 95%, indicating he rarely loses after winning the first set.
• Jodar's serve metrics (70.2% first-serve win) give him an edge in holding serve early in the match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' recent history of extended matches and the competitive nature of grass-court tennis, the match is likely to go at least four sets.

• Jodar has played 4 or more sets in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Mochizuki has played 4 or more sets in 2 of his last 5 matches, including a five-setter in qualifying.
• Both players have shown they can extend matches, with Jodar's deciding-set win percentage at 75% and Mochizuki's at 53%.
• In best-of-5 Grand Slam matches, over 3.5 sets is common when players are closely matched.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

With both players frequently playing tiebreaks and the grass surface favoring serve holds, a tiebreak in the match is likely.

• Jodar has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches, including one in his last Wimbledon match.
• Mochizuki has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches, including two in his last three Wimbledon matches.
• Both players have a tiebreak win percentage of 57%, indicating they are evenly matched in tiebreaks.
• Grass-court matches often feature tiebreaks due to the difficulty of breaking serve.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Mochizuki's high double-fault rate, combined with the extended format, makes it likely that total double faults will exceed 8.5.

• Mochizuki's double-fault rate is 5.9%, significantly higher than Jodar's 2.8%.
• In his last five matches, Mochizuki has averaged 3.4 double faults per match, but in best-of-5, this could increase.
• Jodar averages about 2 double faults per match, but in longer matches, his total can rise (e.g., 4 double faults in a five-setter).
• Combined, their average double faults per match in recent best-of-3 matches is around 5.5, which scales to over 8.5 in best-of-5.