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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia0Leylah Annie Fernandez #34Canada2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Fri 7 Aug 2026, 18:20 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 29 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Canada

A 23-year-old left-hander who reached a career-high No. 13 on August 8, 2022. She has won five WTA singles titles and was the 2021 US Open runner-up.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #13 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 09:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Mirra Andreeva’s dominant recent form (12-3, 55.7% points won) gives her a massive edge over Leylah Fernandez (5-10, 49.2% points won).

The best betting value lies in Andreeva to win 2-0 at 1.83, with a 10.4-point edge, and the match total under 20.5 games. Fernandez’s high double-fault rate and poor return game make an upset improbable.

Context

Andreeva last15 overall: 12-3 record, 55.7% total points won, 50.1% return points won.
- Fernandez last15 overall: 5-10 record, 49.2% total points won, 40.9% return points won.
- Andreeva has won 76.5% of sets in this window; Fernandez only 35.3%.
- Andreeva's last five matches: 4 wins, all in straight sets, losing only 18 games total.
Fernandez last15 double faults per match: 5.7 (85 in 15 matches).
- Fernandez last15 second-serve points won: 45.1%.
- Andreeva last15 return points won: 50.1%, break points converted: 50.7%.
- In their most recent H2H, Andreeva broke Fernandez 4 times and won 44% of return points.
Andreeva last15 hard-court: 1-0 (6-0, 6-2 win), 66.7% total points won – only 1 match tracked.
- Fernandez last15 hard-court: 2-1 record, 53.2% total points won – only 3 matches tracked.
- Andreeva's career hard-court win rate is 68% (85-40); Fernandez's is 60% (158-107).
- Fernandez's two hard-court wins came against lower-ranked opponents (No. 73 Zarazua, No. 68 Linette).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Andreeva's dominant recent form (80% win rate, 55.7% points won) far exceeds Fernandez's 33.3% win rate and sub-50% points won, giving a clear edge in serve/return and overall level.
- Andreeva's last15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), with 63.5% games won and 55.7% total points won.
- Fernandez's last15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3%), with 48.8% games won and 49.2% total points won.
- Andreeva's last15 hard-court record: 1-0 (100%), winning 85.7% of games (small sample).
- Fernandez's last15 hard-court record: 2-1 (66.7%), but with only 53.2% total points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's dominant form often leads to quick matches (average 19.5 games), and Fernandez's hard-court matches recently have been low-scoring, suggesting a straight-sets win with fewer than 20.5 games.
- Andreeva's last15 matches average 19.5 total games (293 games / 15 matches).
- Fernandez's last15 matches average 22.9 total games (344 games / 15 matches).
- Andreeva's last15 hard-court match had 14 total games; Fernandez's last three hard-court matches averaged 18 total games.
- H2H on clay in 2026: 7-6, 6-3 (22 games).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's ability to dominate early (6-0, 6-2 in her last hard-court match) and Fernandez's occasional slow starts make under 9.5 games in set 1 plausible.
- Andreeva's last15 average games per set: 8.6 (293 games / 34 sets).
- Fernandez's last15 average games per set: 10.1 (344 games / 34 sets).
- Andreeva's last hard-court set scores: 6-0, 6-2.
- Fernandez's last three hard-court set scores: 6-2, 6-2, 2-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Andreeva's superior return game (50.1% vs 40.9% return points won) and strong first-serve performance give her a significant edge in set 1, supported by her high first-set win conversion rate.
- Andreeva's first-set win conversion career: 89%.
- Fernandez's first-set win conversion career: 89%.
- Andreeva's last15 overall first-serve points won: 66.6%, return points won: 50.1%.
- Fernandez's last15 overall first-serve points won: 64.2%, return points won: 40.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Andreeva's high set-win percentage and Fernandez's frequent straight-set losses point to a 2-0 victory, consistent with Andreeva's dominant recent form.
- Andreeva's last15 sets won: 76.5% (26/34).
- Fernandez's last15 sets won: 35.3% (12/34).
- Andreeva's last15 hard-court match was a straight-sets win (6-0, 6-2).
- Fernandez has lost in straight sets in 8 of her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's matches rarely feature tiebreaks (only 2 in last 15), and her dominance reduces the likelihood of close sets, making a tiebreak unlikely.
- Andreeva's last15 tiebreak frequency: 0.13 per match (2 tiebreaks in 15 matches).
- Fernandez's last15 tiebreak frequency: 0.33 per match (5 tiebreaks in 15 matches).
- Andreeva's career tiebreak win percentage: 63%.
- Fernandez's career tiebreak win percentage: 53%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 3.5 aces per match, and their combined average is below 6.5, making the under likely in a straight-sets match.
- Andreeva's last15 aces per match: 3.1.
- Fernandez's last15 aces per match: 2.8.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.9.
- H2H aces: Andreeva 9 in 3 matches (3.0 avg), Fernandez 4 in 3 matches (1.3 avg).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fernandez's high double-fault rate (5.7 per match) alone pushes the combined total above 7.5, even with Andreeva's moderate rate.
- Andreeva's last15 double faults per match: 2.9.
- Fernandez's last15 double faults per match: 5.7.
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.6.
- Fernandez's double fault rate is high across surfaces (5.7 overall, 6.1 on clay, 6.2 on grass).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirra Andreeva has fulfilled 12 of 15 match-winner predictions, with an average estimated probability of 74%. The matched predictions averaged 77.3% probability, while the three missed predictions averaged 61%, indicating that higher-confidence projections have been more reliable. The current prediction of 78% sits within the historical range of 56–92%.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W7-6(1) 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#34Apr 28, 2026

L3-6 6-1 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#34Oct 12, 2023

W6-3 6-4Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#34Apr 26, 2023

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

12W 3L

6-0 6-2#66Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#26Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#68Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#11Marta Kostyuk

6-0 6-3#18Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-2#166Jil Teichmann

6-4 6-2#25Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-1 6-1#136Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-3#149Fiona Ferro

4-6 6-2 6-4#4Cori Gauff

6-3 6-3#24Elise Mertens

6-1 4-6 6-0#51Viktorija Golubic

6-1 6-0#56Antonia Ruzic

Leylah Annie Fernandez

5W 10L

6-2 6-2#73Renata Zarazua

6-2 7-6(1)#20Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-4#68Magda Linette

6-1 7-6(3)#36Janice Tjen

6-3 6-4#41Xinyu Wang

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#72Katie Boulter

6-4 7-6(1)#52Zeynep Sonmez

3-6 7-6(4) 7-5#72Katie Boulter

6-4 6-4#71Alycia Parks

6-4 6-4#12Victoria Mboko

6-4 3-6 6-4#45Magdalena Frech

6-1 7-5#119Leolia Jeanjean

7-6(4) 6-4#108Anna Blinkova

4-6 6-4 6-4#169Rebeka Masarova

7-6(1) 6-3#5Mirra Andreeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

9–0

9 core stats · 0 even

Leylah Annie FernandezFernandezLF

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Leylah Annie Fernandez's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In65.3%+3.2pp62.1%

1st Serve Won66.6%+2.4pp64.2%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+6.1pp45.1%

Aces / Match3.1+0.32.8

Double Faults / Match2.92.8 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.1%+9.2pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.7%+3.4pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved67.3%+7.6pp59.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.7%+6.5pp49.2%

Serve · 5–0

65.3%1st Serve In+3.2pp62.1%

66.6%1st Serve Won+2.4pp64.2%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+6.1pp45.1%

3.1Aces / Match+0.32.8

2.9Double Faults / Match2.8 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

50.1%Return Pts Won+9.2pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

50.7%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp47.3%

67.3%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp59.7%

Points · 1–0

55.7%Total Pts Won+6.5pp49.2%

Mirra Andreeva

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mirra Andreeva

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Stat Battle