Barbora Krejcikova vs Mirra Andreeva: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's superior recent form, H2H advantage, and stronger return stats on grass make her the likely winner.
- Andreeva leads H2H 3-1, including a grass win at Wimbledon 2023 (6-3 4-0 ret.) and a hard-court win in 2024.
- Andreeva's recent form: 13-2 in last 15, with dominant wins over top-30 opponents (Kostyuk, Cirstea, Baptiste).
- Krejcikova's grass record in 2026: 5-1, but her only loss was to Birrell (rank 72) and she struggled against lower-ranked players in three-setters.
- Andreeva's return points won (48%) and break point conversion (52%) exceed Krejcikova's (45%, 47%), giving her an edge in breaking serve.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Krejcikova's ability to stay competitive on grass, especially as a former champion, makes her likely to cover the +3.5 game handicap.
- Krejcikova's average games won per match in last 15: 11.3; Andreeva's: 11.9.
- In H2H, Krejcikova has covered +3.5 in 3 of 4 matches (including the win and two close losses).
- Krejcikova's grass-court prowess (2024 Wimbledon champion) keeps matches tight even against top players.
- Andreeva's recent wins have often been by 4-5 game margins, but Krejcikova's serve and net game can keep it closer.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBarbora Krejcikova +3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup, with both players holding serve well, should push the total games over 21.5.
- Krejcikova's last 5 matches averaged 19.6 games, but three of those were straight-set wins against weaker opponents.
- Andreeva's last 5 matches averaged 18.4 games, but her Wimbledon opener was 21 games against Linette.
- H2H matches have averaged 22.3 games (excluding retirements), with two of four going over 21.5.
- Both players have strong serve stats (win on first serve ~66%), suggesting competitive games and potential tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of their H2H and strong serving suggest the first set will exceed 9.5 games.
- Krejcikova's first-set average games in last 5: 9.2; Andreeva's: 8.8.
- H2H first sets: 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 (avg 9.5 games).
- Both players have strong first-set win percentages, indicating tight opening sets.
- Grass often leads to longer first sets as players adjust to the surface.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Andreeva's exceptional first-set record and Krejcikova's occasional slow starts on grass point to Andreeva taking the opener.
- Andreeva has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches (87%), including all grass matches this season.
- Krejcikova's first-set win rate in recent form is 73% (11/15), but she lost the opener to Birrell on grass.
- Andreeva's first-set dominance is backed by a career 90% first-set win conversion rate.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The serve-oriented nature of this matchup on grass, combined with H2H history, makes a tiebreak probable.
- Krejcikova has played 4 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches (27%), Andreeva 3 (20%).
- H2H: 2 of 4 matches featured a tiebreak (50%).
- Both players have strong hold percentages on grass (Krejcikova 66% first-serve win, Andreeva 65.6%).
- Grass-court matches between closely matched opponents often see tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Barbora Krejcikova #38Czechia2Mirra Andreeva #5Russia1

Player Profiles

Barbora Krejcikova

Mirra Andreeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Barbora Krejcikova +3.5

Over 21.5

Yes

Mirra Andreeva

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Barbora Krejcikova

Mirra Andreeva