CanadaWTA TorontoFinished

Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Karolina Pliskova #63Czechia0

Sets 6-0 · 6-2Wed 5 Aug 2026, 19:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 58 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Karolina Pliskova

Czechia

Reached world No. 1 on July 17, 2017. She returned after two left-ankle surgeries and is currently No. 63 with a 20-10 WTA record in 2026.

Current ranking: #63
Peak ranking: #1 · 2017
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 186 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Mirra Andreeva’s superior recent form, dominant 2024 hard-court H2H win, and Pliskova’s high double-fault rate make her a clear favorite.

The best value is Andreeva 2-0 at 1.73, with a 2.2-point edge, while the game handicap -3.5 also offers appeal. Pliskova’s 24-hour turnaround and second-serve vulnerability should lead to a straight-sets victory for the fresher, more consistent teenager.

Context

Andreeva last15 overall: 73.3% win, 60.7% games won, 54.5% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Pliskova last15 overall: 66.7% win, 50.0% games won, 50.2% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Andreeva's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, including a tight three-set loss to Krejcikova and a straight-sets loss to Alexandrova, but dominant clay wins over top-25 opponents.
- Pliskova's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, with a heavy loss to Swiatek and a straight-sets win over Oliynykova in the first round.
Pliskova last15 second-serve points won: 41.1% (146/355).
- Pliskova last15 double faults per match: 6.1 (92 in 15 matches).
- Andreeva last15 return points won: 48.5% (477/984).
- Andreeva last15 break points converted: 48.6% (70/144).
H2H: Andreeva won 6-2, 6-3 on hard court in August 2024.
- Andreeva won 80% of first-serve points and 81% of second-serve points in that match.
- Pliskova hit 12 double faults and won only 20% of return points.
- The match was played on outdoor hard, similar to Toronto's surface.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Andreeva's superior recent form (73.3% win, 60.7% games won) and dominant H2H on hard court give her a clear edge over Pliskova, whose overall last15 games won is only 50%.
- Andreeva last15 overall: 73.3% win, 60.7% games won, 54.5% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Pliskova last15 overall: 66.7% win, 50.0% games won, 50.2% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Andreeva career hard: 84-? (surface record shows 84 hard wins), Pliskova career hard: 325 wins but recent 2026 hard only 5-2.
- H2H: Andreeva won 6-2 6-3 on hard in 2024, with 80% first-serve points won and 81% second-serve points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's dominant set-winning rate (70.6%) and the low-game H2H suggest a straight-sets win with fewer than 20.5 games.
- Andreeva last15 average games per match: 20.0 (300 games / 15 matches).
- Pliskova last15 average games per match: 21.9 (328 games / 15 matches).
- H2H: 17 games total (6-2 6-3).
- Andreeva last15 sets won: 70.6%, Pliskova sets won: 57.1%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's superior game-winning percentage and positive game margin in recent matches support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Andreeva last15 games won%: 60.7%, Pliskova: 50.0%.
- Andreeva last15 average game margin: +2.1 per match (182-118).
- Pliskova last15 average game margin: 0.0 (164-164).
- H2H: Andreeva won by 7 games (12-5).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMirra Andreeva -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's strong first-set performance and low average games per set suggest set 1 will be under 9.5 games.
- Andreeva last15 average games per set: 9.1 (300 games / 33 sets).
- Pliskova last15 average games per set: 9.4 (328 games / 35 sets).
- H2H set1: 8 games (6-2).
- Andreeva's first-set win conversion: 89%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Andreeva's higher return points won (48.5% vs 42.9%) and elite first-set conversion rate (89%) suggest she will start strong and take the opening set.
- Andreeva last15 first-serve points won: 65.9%, return points won: 48.5%.
- Pliskova last15 first-serve points won: 65.5%, return points won: 42.9%.
- Andreeva career first-set win conversion: 89%.
- Pliskova last15 break points saved: 54.5%, Andreeva break points converted: 48.6%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Andreeva's high set-win percentage and Pliskova's lower rate of straight-set wins point to a 2-0 victory for Andreeva.
- Andreeva last15 sets won: 70.6%, Pliskova sets won: 57.1%.
- Andreeva last15 record: 11-4, with 8 straight-set wins in last 15.
- Pliskova last15 record: 10-5, but only 5 straight-set wins.
- H2H: Andreeva won 2-0.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak occurrence in recent matches, and Andreeva's dominant set-winning rate reduces the likelihood of close sets.
- Andreeva last15 sets won: 70.6%, with only 2 tiebreaks in 34 sets (5.9%).
- Pliskova last15 sets: 35 sets, 4 tiebreaks (11.4%).
- Andreeva career tiebreak win%: 63%, Pliskova: 50%.
- H2H: no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pliskova's high double fault rate (6.1 per match) combined with Andreeva's 3.1 pushes the expected total over 8.5.
- Pliskova last15 double faults per match: 6.1.
- Andreeva last15 double faults per match: 3.1.
- Combined average: 9.2 double faults per match.
- Pliskova's double fault rate is consistently high across surfaces.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 3.5 aces per match in recent form, making under 7.5 total aces likely.
- Andreeva last15 aces per match: 2.8.
- Pliskova last15 aces per match: 3.1.
- Combined average: 5.9 aces per match.
- H2H: Andreeva 6 aces, Pliskova 5 aces (total 11, but small sample).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirra Andreeva has fulfilled 12 of 15 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 74%. Her matched predictions averaged 77.3%, while the three misses averaged 61%, indicating that losses occurred in closer matchups. The current 78% probability sits within her historical range of 56–92%.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vKarolina Pliskova#63Aug 15, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

4-6 7-5 6-4#25Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#65Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#21Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#11Marta Kostyuk

6-0 6-3#17Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-2#163Jil Teichmann

6-4 6-2#24Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-1 6-1#130Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-3#159Fiona Ferro

4-6 6-2 6-4#4Cori Gauff

6-3 6-3#23Elise Mertens

6-1 4-6 6-0#51Viktorija Golubic

6-1 6-0#55Antonia Ruzic

6-3 7-5#11Marta Kostyuk

Karolina Pliskova

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#44Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-3#8Iga Swiatek

6-3 6-4#64Tereza Valentova

6-4 6-1#24Marie Bouzkova

7-5 6-4#72Talia Gibson

6-4 7-6(3)#73Caty McNally

2-6 7-6(3) 6-2#38Sara Bejlek

6-4 4-6 6-3#35Donna Vekic

6-2 3-4 ret.#12Victoria Mboko

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#47Mccartney Kessler

6-3 6-2#130Marina Bassols Ribera

0-6 6-3 6-1#171Yeon Woo Ku

6-0 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-1 6-4#88Laura Siegemund

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#39Jaqueline Cristian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Karolina PliskovaPliskovaKP

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Karolina Pliskova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.7%+1.8pp66.5%

1st Serve Won65.9%—65.5%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+9.3pp41.1%

Aces / Match2.8+0.33.1

Double Faults / Match3.13.0 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.5%+5.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted48.6%—48.2%

Break Pts Saved65.4%+10.9pp54.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.5%+4.3pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.7%1st Serve In+1.8pp66.5%

65.9%1st Serve Won—65.5%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+9.3pp41.1%

2.8Aces / Match+0.33.1

3.1Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer6.1

Return · 1–0

48.5%Return Pts Won+5.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

48.6%Break Pts Converted—48.2%

65.4%Break Pts Saved+10.9pp54.5%

Points · 1–0

54.5%Total Pts Won+4.3pp50.2%

Mirra Andreeva

Karolina Pliskova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Mirra Andreeva

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mirra Andreeva

Karolina Pliskova

Stat Battle