Maja Chwalinska #114Poland00 – 2Mirra Andreeva #8Russia2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Andreeva's elite clay form, superior ranking, and Chwalinska's fitness concerns make her a strong favorite.

• Andreeva is 21-3 on clay in 2026, with a 75.7% career win rate and 89 clay wins.
• Chwalinska has a 19-5 clay record in 2026 but faces her first Top 10 opponent in a major final.
• Andreeva has dropped only one set all tournament, with dominant wins over top-20 players Kostyuk and Cirstea.
• Chwalinska showed physical distress in her semifinal, grabbing a heavily taped left leg and requiring physio treatment.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Andreeva's efficient wins and Chwalinska's fitness issues make a low total games count likely.

• Andreeva's last four matches averaged 16.5 games, with none exceeding 18 games.
• Chwalinska's matches have been tighter, but her physical state may lead to a quicker match.
• Andreeva's dominant form and Chwalinska's potential fatigue point to a straight-sets win with few games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Andreeva's strong second-set performances and Chwalinska's potential physical decline point to a low-game second set.

• Andreeva's last five second-set scores: 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 (all under 8.5 games).
• Chwalinska may struggle to hold serve as fatigue sets in against Andreeva's return game.
• Andreeva's second-set dominance is consistent, often closing out matches efficiently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Andreeva's dominant scorelines and Chwalinska's physical concerns suggest Andreeva can cover a -5.5 game handicap.

• Andreeva's average game margin in her last five wins is +7.2 games.
• Chwalinska's matches have been closer, but she faces a significant step up in class.
• Andreeva's ability to win sets comfortably (6-1, 6-3, 6-2) supports covering a -5.5 game handicap.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Andreeva's fast starts and Chwalinska's potential fatigue from nine matches make a first-set win for Andreeva highly likely.

• Andreeva has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches, with a 90% first-set win conversion rate.
• Chwalinska lost the first set in her only recent match against a top-50 opponent (Sakkari) and struggled early against Shnaider.
• Andreeva's first-set dominance includes 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-4, and 6-3 scorelines in her last five matches.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Andreeva's straight-sets trend and Chwalinska's fitness concerns make a 2-0 result very likely.

• Andreeva has won in straight sets in 13 of her last 15 matches.
• Chwalinska has gone to three sets in only 2 of her last 10 matches, but against weaker opposition.
• Andreeva's only dropped set this tournament was in the first round, and she has since dominated.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Andreeva's consistency and Chwalinska's physical concerns suggest Andreeva will also take the second set.

• Andreeva has won the second set in 12 of her last 15 matches, often closing out matches in straight sets.
• Chwalinska has shown resilience but may fade physically in a second set against a top-10 opponent.
• Andreeva's second-set scores in her last five matches: 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67

The read

Andreeva's dominant form and Chwalinska's fatigue make a 2-0 victory the most probable outcome.

• Andreeva has won 2-0 in 13 of her last 15 matches, including all five at Roland Garros.
• Chwalinska has lost only one set in her last five matches, but against lower-ranked players.
• Andreeva's superior serve and return stats, combined with Chwalinska's physical issues, favor a straight-sets win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Andreeva's ability to break serve and win sets comfortably makes a tiebreak unlikely.

• Andreeva has played only one tiebreak in her last 15 matches.
• Chwalinska has played three tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, but Andreeva's dominance reduces tiebreak likelihood.
• Andreeva's straight-sets wins often come without tiebreaks, as she breaks serve frequently.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Andreeva's serve is capable of generating aces, and the total may exceed 4.5 if both players contribute.

• Andreeva averages 3.2 aces per match, with a career ace rate of 3.2%.
• Chwalinska's ace rate is only 0.8%, but Andreeva's serve can produce aces on clay.
• In a best-of-3 match, Andreeva alone could hit 3-4 aces, and Chwalinska may add 1-2.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the final's pressure could push the total over 6.5.

• Andreeva averages 4.2 double faults per match, with a double fault rate of 4.2%.
• Chwalinska averages 3.2 double faults per match, with a rate of 3.2%.
• In a high-pressure final, both players may commit more double faults than usual.