CanadaATP MontrealFinished
Predictions gradedThe 19-year-old reached a new career-high No. 15 following his August 2026 Washington final. He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.
Moutet reached a career-high No. 30 on 20 April 2026. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces, and he plays left-handed.
Pre-match view
Jodar's tight turnaround from a rain-delayed Washington final raises fatigue concerns, while Moutet's quick Montreal opener gives him a freshness edge.
The best betting angles are Moutet +3.5 games on the handicap and over 21.5 total games, as Jodar's average win margin is narrow and his matches tend to be lengthy.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 62%
Jodar's average win margin is around 3 games, and Moutet's competitive return game should keep the match close enough to cover the +4.5 handicap.
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 60%
Jodar's matches average over 31 games, and Moutet's competitive return stats suggest a longer contest, making Over 21.5 a value play at 1.95.
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 58%
Both players have shown tight first sets recently, and Jodar's fatigue may prevent a blowout, making over 9.5 games likely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Moutet's poor recent form and Jodar's strong hard-court record make an upset unlikely despite the attractive odds.
Rafael Jodar has fulfilled 14 of 15 win predictions, a 93% success rate. The average estimated probability in these matches was 69.2%, with an expected 10.4 wins, indicating he has consistently outperformed expectations. The only missed prediction occurred against Shintaro Mochizuki at Wimbledon, where Jodar lost despite a 65% probability.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 1 even
Rafael Jodar carries the stronger recent form — Corentin Moutet's route runs through serve.
