ATP Monte CarloFinished

Predictions graded

Felix Auger Aliassime #7Canada2Marin Cilic #51Croatia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Wed 8 Apr 2026, 13:41 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Auger Aliassime · 44 places

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

—

Current ranking: #7
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Marin Cilic

Croatia

—

Current ranking: #51
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Apr 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest

FAA is the ranking favorite but Monte Carlo curse (2-6 career) combined with Cilic's proven venue experience (3 QFs) and successful clay adaptation (beat Shevchenko 6-1 6-3) creates genuine upset value.

Markets overpricing FAA's dominance; edge plays favor Cilic as underdog, Over 22.5 games, and Three Sets markets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FAA's ranking advantage (7 vs 51), recent 3-0 H2H run, and stronger 2026 season record (15-6 vs 8-7) make him the favourite, though his dismal Monte Carlo history (2W from 8) and Cilic's venue pedigree (3 QFs) significantly temper the edge.
- FAA has won the last 3 H2H meetings against Cilic, including 7-6 7-6 in October 2025 and 6-4 3-6 6-2 in February 2025
- FAA is ranked 7th with a 15-6 record in 2026 vs Cilic ranked 51st at 8-7
- FAA has won only 2 of 8 career matches at Monte Carlo, both against qualifiers, representing a significant venue-specific weakness
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even if FAA wins, Cilic is unlikely to be blown out given the competitive H2H and his strong serving. Cilic has kept recent matches tight and his Monte Carlo pedigree should ensure a competitive showing.
- In the last 3 H2H matches won by FAA, the game margins were +0 (7-6 7-6), +3 (6-4 3-6 6-2), and +4 (2-6 7-6 6-2 7-6)
- Cilic lost to Zverev (ranked 3) by only a 4-game margin (6-2 5-7 6-4) at the same March tournament
- Cilic's recent losses to Fritz (7-6 7-6) and Nakashima (7-6 7-6) show he stays extremely competitive even when losing
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarin Cilic +4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players are strong servers with high ace rates (~11%) and the H2H has produced tight matches recently, including the tiebreak-laden 7-6 7-6 in October 2025. Clay slows serves but the competitive level between these two tends to produce close sets.
- The last H2H match produced 26 total games (7-6 7-6) and the one before that had 27 games (6-4 3-6 6-2)
- Both players have career ace rates around 11% and win on first serve percentages above 74%
- Cilic's recent losses have all been tight affairs: 7-6 6-4 vs Svajda, 7-6 7-6 vs Nakashima, 7-6 7-6 vs Fritz
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FAA has a strong first set win conversion rate (88% career) and won the first set in 5 of his last 7 matches. His serve quality should help him start strongly even on clay.
- FAA has a career first set win conversion rate of 88%, indicating he rarely loses matches after winning the first set
- FAA won the first set in 5 of his last 7 matches (vs Fucsovics, Fils tiebreak, Medvedev loss, Lehecka, Mpetshi Perricard, Zhang)
- Cilic's career first set win conversion is 86%, slightly lower than FAA's
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FAA has a 5% career double fault rate and Cilic 3.8%, both relatively controlled. In a best-of-3, the total service games are limited, making high double fault counts less likely unless nerves or fatigue set in.
- FAA career double fault rate is 5.0% with 2349 double faults across 638 matches (~3.7 per match)
- Cilic career double fault rate is 3.8% with 3007 double faults across 1126 matches (~2.7 per match)
- Combined career average would suggest roughly 6-7 double faults in a typical best-of-3 match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers with high ace rates, and the H2H has featured tiebreaks frequently. While clay reduces serve dominance, the competitive closeness of this matchup increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- The most recent H2H match (Oct 2025) featured two tiebreaks (7-6 7-6), and the 2022 match also had two tiebreaks
- FAA has a 59% career tiebreak win rate; 4 of his last 10 matches included at least one tiebreak
- Cilic's last 6 losses featured tiebreaks in 4 of them (vs Fritz 7-6 7-6, vs Nakashima 7-6 7-6, vs Svajda 7-6, vs Nakashima 7-6)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3-3 (6 meetings)

W7-6(2) 7-6(2)Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Oct 23, 2025

W6-4 3-6 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Feb 27, 2025

W2-6 7-6(7) 6-2 7-6(4)Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Jan 24, 2022

L7-6(2) 6-3Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Jun 13, 2021

L6-0 3-6 6-3Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Nov 2, 2020

L6-3 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#7vMarin Cilic#51Aug 1, 2019

6 total meetings

Felix Auger Aliassime

6W 4L

6-3 1-6 6-3#45Terence Atmane

7-6(3) 7-5#58Marton Fucsovics

6-3 7-6(9)#28Arthur Fils

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#36Gabriel Diallo

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#199Gael Monfils

6-4 6-2#10Daniil Medvedev

6-3 7-6(2)#13Jiri Lehecka

6-4 6-4#56Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 7-6(4)#240Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-2#6Alex De Minaur

Marin Cilic

6W 4L

6-1 6-3#77Alexander Shevchenko

6-2 5-7 6-4#3Alexander Zverev

2-6 6-4 7-6(7)#33Brandon Nakashima

6-4 6-4#44Alexei Popyrin

7-6(5) 6-4#84Zachary Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#33Brandon Nakashima

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#9Taylor Fritz

6-1 6-4#136Jack Pinnington Jones

7-6(4) 6-3#54Ethan Quinn

7-5 7-6(4)#22Learner Tien