PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished
Predictions gradedWallin reached a career-high No. 368 on July 13, 2026, and was No. 386 on July 27. The reviewed sources do not establish a preferred surface.
Guerrieri reached a career-high No. 213 on July 20, 2026, and was No. 215 on July 27. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.
Pre-match view
Olle Wallin holds a moderate edge over Andrea Guerrieri based on superior recent form, break point conversion, and first-serve performance, though his recent clay-court sample adds surface-switch risk.
The match is likely to be competitive, with value on over 21.5 total games and Wallin to win, while Guerrieri 2-0 should be avoided.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Market 52.6% · BetBugs 58%
Wallin's superior recent form and break point conversion give him a moderate edge, but the surface switch from clay to hard adds uncertainty.
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 55%
Wallin's superior first-serve points won (71.5% vs 66.5%) gives him a slight edge in holding serve early.
Market 22.2% · BetBugs 25%
Wallin's last 15 matches average 2.47 sets, and Guerrieri's 2.2 sets, suggesting a three-setter is plausible, with Wallin's higher deciding-set win rate (63% vs 57%) giving him the edge if it goes the distance.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Olle Wallin has fulfilled all 8 of his win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 63.1%. The current prediction of 58% sits below the historical range of 62–65%, indicating a slightly lower confidence than in past matches. Despite this, his perfect record in these situations suggests strong recent reliability.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 1 even
Olle Wallin carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Guerrieri's route runs through serve.
